How do we judge if a destination feels safe?

Times

2 days ago

The question I'm most often asked at this time of year is: 'Where should I go on holiday?' But over the past week, more often than not it's been: 'Should I go on holiday?'
When the world shifts even just a little on its axis, with events such as conflict and plane crashes, it can suddenly seem a much scarier place — and travellers' perceptions of 'safe' shifts with it. What was OK only hours or minutes ago is suddenly not.
This was thrown into sharp relief earlier this month, when missile strikes led Iran, Israel and Iraq to close their airspaces to commercial air traffic and international aviation agencies to issue no-fly warnings, compounding the closure of Russian airspace as a result of the conflict with Ukraine.
The UK Foreign Office travel advice, which not only informs us of entry requirements to any given destination but also gives a steer on health risks, cultural differences and, crucially at turbulent times, advice about how to stay safe, changed for many countries in the region. The proximity of Iran and Israel to holiday hotspots such as the United Arab Emirates or Turkey has worried travellers headed in that direction on their summer trips.
So if you've booked to travel overseas this summer — or are about to book — but are suddenly feeling nervous, how do you make a considered decision?
Understanding a little more about what your consumer rights are if things go wrong can help. For example, if the Foreign Office advises against all travel, it immediately renders most insurance policies invalid, helping the prudent travellers among us overcome any residual indecision. It's not just travel insurers who follow it to the letter — travel agents and tour operators also follow its lead. Members of the trade organisation Abta, for example, will give customers travelling to a destination suddenly deemed unsafe the options of deferring their date of travel, transferring to another destination or a full refund.
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But even if the Foreign Office doesn't advise against travel, or advises against all but essential travel, I've noticed a new level of wavering when the travelling public hear about delays, cancellations and airspace closures. We know we can go, but we're not sure we should.
And everyone judges acceptable risk differently. My septuagenarian parents, for example, were first off the block once borders opened after Covid but are now feeling more nervous about travel. They had no plans to travel long-haul but the disruption across the Middle East since June 15 — when the UK Foreign Office advised against all travel to Israel and since updated its travel advice for all countries in the region — has introduced doubt about going overseas at all, even on the European river cruises they love. Fellow parents are concerned about taking children to European destinations that they worry may not be safe such as Cyprus or Turkey; other friends are worried about being delayed returning home after a trip to Dubai or Oman.
No one likes the thought of being stranded anywhere and so passengers are easily spooked by cancellations and delays. Closed airspace, which is often a fluid situation that can change by the hour, will continue to factor in our international travel for the foreseeable. It also has a fundamental impact on airline operations, affecting fuel consumption, crew and aircraft displacement and even catering. Flights from Europe to Asia that would under normal circumstances have crossed Iranian, Iraqi, Jordanian or Israeli airspace are forced to reroute over Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. It means the number of what we call 'air corridors' from Europe to Asia has effectively shrunk from three to two, extending some flight routes from Istanbul to Abu Dhabi 'We understand that travellers may have concerns due to recent developments in the region,' a spokesperson from Visit Dubai said.
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'Even a 20 to 30-minute increase in average flight time — typical of current reroutings — can have a significant operational impact,' the travel intelligence platform Skift said. 'For passengers this can mean missed connections, longer transit times and added stress.'
And for passengers travelling to or through the Middle East last week, this was considerable. Most airlines have paused routes to Tel Aviv, and destinations in Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. British Airways resumed flights to Doha on Friday but has cancelled all flights to and from Jordan and Bahrain up to July 10; while United Airlines and American Airlines have both cancelled routes to Doha and Dubai until early July.
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Whether you choose to take this as a reason not to travel or an indication of the importance of passenger safety is up to you, but a look into the size and the complexity of airline crisis management may just inspire confidence rather than fear.
Last week Qatar Airways gave an unprecedented look into what happened when Qatari airspace closed on Monday, swiftly followed by airspace in Bahrain, the UAE and Kuwait. Doha's Hamad International airport, one of the world's most connected global hubs, was brought to a standstill, with over 10,000 passengers inside already in transit and almost 100 aircraft en route to Doha or preparing for departure. 'Qatar Airways flights carrying more than 20,000 passengers to Doha were forced to divert into airports across Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, Oman and the United Arab Emirates,' said its chief executive, Badr Mohammed al-Meer.
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'The remaining aircraft were rerouted to major hubs including London, Barcelona and others across Europe, Asia and the Middle East.' Once Qatari airspace reopened shortly after midnight on June 24, diverted aircraft began returning to Doha, the number of passengers in transit needing support ranging from accommodation and alternative transport to food and drink surged to over 22,000.
Unsurprisingly, we hear less about the flights that did operate. According to the aviation data agency Cirium, of 162 scheduled flights between London and the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain from Sunday to Tuesday last week, only 21 were cancelled (12 per cent). Emirates has carried over 1.7 million passengers in the past two weeks and Royal Jordanian is flying full capacity to Jordan. Dubai, which has long positioned itself as one of the world's safest cities, says flights have operated with minimal disruption.
'We understand that travellers may have concerns due to recent developments in the region,' the Dubai Media Centre said. 'However, Dubai remains fully open for business and tourism. Dubai's airspace, airport infrastructure and emergency response systems are among the most advanced globally, with air-traffic control teams managing route adjustments seamlessly in line with international safety protocols.'
I spoke to some tour operators to ask how they're handling things.
'Our top priority is always to ensure that every journey feels both safe and enjoyable, so if a guest still feels unsure, we will always look at offering bespoke solutions — whether that's adapting the itinerary to focus on a different part of the country, suggesting alternative destinations or providing flexibility to travel at a later date,' said Andre Rickerby, Scott Dunn's UK executive vice-president.
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'For guests who remain uneasy, our specialists are happy to suggest routing alternatives — whether that's switching to a different airline, considering a connection through a specific hub or discussing destinations that avoid longer-haul.'
'Things can change quickly and last-minute options are always available,' said Charlotte Wells, director of global tailormade product at Abercrombie & Kent. 'Travel specialists can offer advice and alternatives, ensuring that your journey matches your comfort level and the style of holiday you're after. Some destinations are quieter than usual, which means fewer crowds, better access to key sights and a more relaxed experience overall. Similarly, it could be an opportunity to explore somewhere completely different or out of season, giving you a new travel experience entirely.'
Help make travel more seamless — and therefore fun! — by taking out comprehensive insurance at the time of booking, keeping an eye on Foreign Office destination advice, downloading relevant apps and knowing your consumer rights (see our advice about specific destinations, flight cancellations and refunds).
At which point, hopefully, the answer will be: of course you should go on holiday.
Are you concerned about travel right now? Let us know in the comments below