Gulf monarchs on edge as Trump's unpredictability could leave them exposed if war with Iran breaks out

Time of India

20-06-2025

Gulf monarchs on edge as Trump's unpredictability risks war with Iran:
As tensions rise between the U.S. and Iran, Gulf monarchs are growing increasingly anxious about what Donald Trump might do next. The Gulf region — led by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman — is walking a tightrope, trying to balance diplomacy with Iran while maintaining long-standing military ties with the United States. For leaders across the Gulf, a potential U.S. strike on Iran could turn their countries into battlegrounds, especially those hosting American military bases.
Trump's unpredictable approach to foreign policy has only heightened fears. And with Israel's ongoing conflict fueling the fire, Gulf monarchies now find themselves scrambling to protect their sovereignty, oil exports, and national security.
Why are Gulf countries so worried about a U.S. strike on Iran?
Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait are home to major U.S. military installations. If Trump chooses to strike Iran, these bases could become prime targets for Iranian retaliation. According to Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University, U.S. involvement would be the "worst-case scenario" for Gulf allies — not because they support Iran, but because their geography and military alliances would put them directly in harm's way.
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Iran has already warned that if attacked, it will strike back 'wherever necessary', according to Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran's deputy foreign minister. In short, Gulf leaders worry they could be caught in the crossfire of a war they didn't start.
Missiles have already been spotted in the skies over Kuwait, and Bahrain tested emergency sirens earlier this week, signs that the region is bracing for a possible escalation. These fears are not unfounded — in 2019, a missile and drone strike believed to have been orchestrated by Iran crippled half of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production.
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How are Gulf monarchies managing ties with Iran during this crisis?
In a surprising diplomatic shift, Gulf leaders have made direct contact with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in recent days. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed both spoke to Pezeshkian to express solidarity and condemn Israeli military actions in Gaza.
Even Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani received a letter from Pezeshkian, while the Sultan of Oman and Gulf foreign ministers have been engaging with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. These talks show that Gulf monarchies are doing whatever it takes to cool tensions and avoid confrontation.
Despite their historically rocky relationships with Tehran, the UAE and Saudi Arabia — traditionally strong backers of Trump's 'maximum pressure' campaign — are now leaning on diplomacy. They've called for a ceasefire, pushed for a return to U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, and are even relaying Tehran's willingness to talk with Washington via Qatar and Oman.
What role is Trump playing in the Gulf's growing unease?
While Trump enjoys warm ties with Gulf rulers — especially after a high-profile visit to the region last month — his unpredictability is causing major concern. He drew applause in Riyadh for criticizing past U.S. interventions, but leaders are still uncertain about how far he might go if Iran escalates.
After Israel launched its offensive last week, Trump called both the Emir of Qatar and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, showing continued engagement. But behind the scenes, Gulf leaders are telling Washington not to use their bases for any strikes against Iran — a clear sign of their fear of retaliation.
'Bound to be guilty by association,' said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, referring to how Gulf countries could be dragged into a broader conflict just for hosting U.S. troops.
And that's not the only concern. Gulf leaders are worried that Washington won't fully commit to their defense if war breaks out. After all, Iran's 2019 attack on Saudi oil infrastructure was met with a muted U.S. response, frustrating Gulf allies and pushing them to hedge their bets with diplomacy.
Are Gulf states choosing between Iran and Israel?
The region finds itself stuck between two powerful rivals: Iran and Israel. While some Gulf states — including the UAE and Bahrain — normalized relations with Israel in 2020, the long war in Gaza and Israeli strikes in Syria have raised questions about Israel's regional ambitions.
Arab leaders have grown frustrated with what they see as Israeli overreach, despite privately welcoming the weakening of Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah. As one Gulf analyst put it, 'An imperial Israel is not good for the region.'
Gulf leaders now fear a destabilized balance of power. They still see a nuclear-armed Iran as a grave threat, but not at the expense of a dominant Israel that could upend regional equilibrium.
Republican Congressman Don Bacon, who recently visited the region, said Arab officials were united in their view: 'Iran, a nuclear-armed Iran, is an existential threat.' Yet, those same leaders are also worried that Trump's confrontational style could push Iran to lash out — and their nations could pay the price.
Can diplomacy hold off another Gulf crisis?
Right now, Gulf monarchs are betting on back-channel diplomacy to keep the fire from spreading. They've opened communication lines with Tehran, urged restraint from Washington, and are even acting as regional mediators.
But with Trump's decision-making up in the air, and the U.S.–Israel alliance as strong as ever, Gulf leaders know things can spiral quickly. They're trying to avoid a repeat of 2019 or worse — a full-scale war that could pull the entire Gulf into chaos.
The situation remains tense, but for now, the Gulf is talking more and striking less — a risky but necessary move in one of the world's most volatile neighborhoods.