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Middle East Eye
16 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
'Vindicated': Unscathed by war, Gulf states look to capitalise on Israel and Iran's losses
The Gulf states see two losers in the conflict between Israel and Iran, analysts and Arab officials tell Middle East Eye. Having squeaked through the hostilities with little damage themselves, leaders in the energy-rich Gulf are now in a position to tap their relative advantages in Israel and the Islamic Republic. Watching the smoke rise from Tehran was a change for leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who just a few years ago were fending off drones and missiles launched at them from Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli warplanes made hay of Iran's weak air defences. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals were assassinated, and ballistic missile launchers and arms factories were destroyed. The war culminated in the US bombing Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. And that is the aspect that US and Israeli officials are hammering home about the conflict in their interactions, three Arab officials told MEE. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters But for the first time in a generation, Arab rulers got to see how Israel would fare against a conventional army. Israeli encroachment stopped 'The Israelis showed strong spirit in supporting their military…They were brave. However, the home front in Israel couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes,' one Arab official told MEE, sharing an assessment of the war review in a leading Arab capital. MEE spoke with officials representing three Arab capitals for this article. All said that in their country's corridors of power, the assessment is that Israel was the first to signal it was ready for a ceasefire after having exhausted its list of military targets and seeing that the Islamic Republic was not facing collapse. 'Benjamin Netanyahu was on a rise until now,' Bader al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told MEE. 'Of course, Israel demonstrated military superiority over Iran's skies. But Iran stopped the Israeli encroachment and hit back. The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken.' 'The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken' - Bader al-Saif, Kuwait University The perception of Israeli vulnerability is important to understand how the US's Arab allies will approach Israel in the future, experts say. It could give them more leverage with Israel, including states that normalised ties with it in 2020 under the Abraham Accords. The same goes for Tehran, the Arab officials told MEE. They expect Gulf leaders to offer investments to Tehran and are not ruling out high-level visits in the coming months. In April, Saudi Arabia's defence minister and brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Tehran. Despite saying Iran's nuclear programme has been 'blown up to kingdom come', US President Donald Trump says his administration will restart talks with Iran. Iran says its nuclear programme is "badly damaged". Either way, the Gulf states backed the nuclear talks, and their sway in Tehran could increase even more now, Arab officials told MEE. 'The Gulf gets a hearing in Washington. At the end of the day, that remains the tremendous leverage it has with Iran - calling up Trump in the middle of the night and him answering the phone,' one Arab diplomat told MEE. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia sealed deals for hundreds of billions of dollars with the US when Trump visited the region in May. At the time, they appeared to get concessions. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia, Trump stopped US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, MEE revealed. He also lifted sanctions on Syria. 'The Israelis were brave...[but] the home front couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes' - Arab official The Gulf states were unable to stop Israel's attack on Iran. For a moment, it looked dicey. Although the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have differing priorities, experts say none of them wanted to see the US directly join Israel's offensive. In the end, all the Arab officials who spoke with MEE characterised the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities as 'limited" or "minimal". Iran's retaliatory strike on al-Udeid military base in Qatar was coordinated well in advance with Gulf states, MEE reported. 'This crisis has really elevated the Gulf states' leadership,' Ayham Kamel, Middle East president at Edelman Public and Government Affairs, told MEE. 'They were able to play a behind-the-scenes diplomatic role and avoid any significant attack on their territory. They triangulated their cooperation to be inclusive of key states in the broader region, particularly Iran, Turkey and Israel,' he added. Sympathy with Iran? For years, the US tried to recruit Gulf states into an alliance with Israel to counter Iran. When Hezbollah dominated Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria, and the Houthis were lobbing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia - that pitch was attractive. It reached its peak before the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel, when US Central Command tried to create a 'Middle East Nato' linking Israel to Gulf states and Egypt's air defence. But when Israel and Iran came to blows, instead of joining in Israel's offensive, the US's Arab allies lobbied Trump to stop the war. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time' - Patrick Theros, former US ambassador Israel and Iran exchanged direct fire twice in 2024. The US did receive some Saudi and Qatari support defending Israel last year. But Iran choreographed its missile barrages then. This round was the first bare-knuckled battle between them, with Israeli jets pounding Tehran and Iran hammering major cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all condemned Israel's attack on Iran. Qatar has historically maintained closer ties to the Islamic Republic, in part because they share the world's largest natural gas field. But this conflict saw the UAE and Saudi Arabia publicly and privately press for a ceasefire, two Arab officials told MEE. 'US and Israeli officials may not have anticipated how serious the Gulf is about de-escalation. They know now. Saudi Arabia is on the top of that list,' Patrick Theros, a former US diplomat who served as ambassador to Qatar and a high-ranking official in the UAE, told MEE. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, including Saudi Arabia, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time,' Theros said. Israel and US modified F-35s to enable Iran attack without refuelling, sources say Read More » Not so long ago, Israel may have been able to convince Saudi Arabia to join in its attack. In 2018, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman compared Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Hitler and said he was trying to 'conquer the world'. Then, Saudi Arabia became bogged down fighting Iran's allies in Yemen. In 2019, two major Saudi oil facilities were attacked. At the time, President Trump shrugged off the assault, which emanated from Iran. In the following years, Saudi Arabia moved to patch up ties with the Islamic Republic. In 2023, China brokered a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. It worked for everyone during the war. The Strait of Hormuz, which China relies on for its oil shipments, remained open. Iranian oil exports soared despite Israeli attacks, and Saudi Arabia's oil installations were safe again. 'The Gulf isn't where it was at in 2019,' Saif, at Kuwait University, told MEE. "We [the Gulf] feel vindicated that we did not join the war.' Gaza ceasefire and normalisation The Gulf states' main focus is reducing their economies' dependence on oil revenue. Saudi Arabia has pushed through liberalising social reforms and is pursuing an ambitious Vision 2030 agenda that includes luxury Red Sea tourism. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi want to build AI data centres. One overlooked element of the change, Theros told MEE, is that the sectarian tensions that feed into the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in spheres of influence like Yemen and Syria have ebbed, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pursues modernising social reforms. 'Now that Mohammed Bin Salman has de-Wahhabised Saudi Arabia, the rhetoric out of the clerics about the Shia has been curbed,' Theros said. 'That makes it harder for Israel to bring Saudi Arabia along.' If anything, public opinion in the Gulf has turned more negative towards Israel over its war on Gaza, where over 56,000 Palestinians have been killed. A poll released by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the first months of the Gaza war revealed 96 percent of people in Saudi Arabia oppose normalisation with Israel. Trump signalled on Wednesday that he wants to build out his fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran to Gaza, where he said 'great progress is being made' to end the war. Ending that conflict is a prerequisite to any talk of normalising ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Under Saudi pressure, Trump refrained from lobbying the kingdom to cut a deal with Israel during his visit to Riyadh in May, but told Saudi Arabia, 'you'll be greatly honouring me' by doing so. Saudi Arabia says it needs to see Israel take irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state to normalise relations. Diplomats say that after the Israel-Iran war, the price Saudi Arabia will demand is going up. 'Saudi Arabia has a very good sense of where the Arab street is going,' one Arab official told MEE. 'It will insist on something serious.'
Al-Ahram Weekly
2 days ago
- Politics
- Al-Ahram Weekly
Arab states wary of Israel - World - Al-Ahram Weekly
Israel's war on Iran has underscored the Arab view of Israel as an aggressive source of instability in the region Twenty months of intense Israeli militarism in the region surging recently to take in Iran have left the Arab states wary of the strategic dangers and chaos that come with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 'remaking of the Middle East' and what it could mean for them. It is no secret that after Israel's decapitation of Hizbullah's leadership in Lebanon last October, the consensus within both official and intellectual Arab political circles was that Iran would be next. When Israel attacked Iran eight months later in the middle of diplomatic exchanges between Tehran and Washington, the Arab states were left to grapple with the entangled political and strategic reverberations of strikes that could have important effects on their national interests. On one level, the Arab states condemned in the 'strongest terms' the 'blatant' aggression against 'brotherly' Iran, in the words of Saudi Arabia and the UAE's respective statements on 13 June. Egypt's similarly alarmed condemnation slammed Israel's attack as 'unjustified' and warned of 'unprecedented repercussions' on the security and stability of the Middle East. Privately, hushed conversations within Arab intellectual circles saw elevated levels of anxiety, canvassing the region for Israel's 'next' target. This time it was not a single country, unlocking a level of paranoia rooted in the violent events of the past 20 months. Who's-next lists included Lebanon, Turkey, Algeria, and even Egypt, mostly in that order. Contrary to the strongly worded official statements of frustration with Israel's unprovoked aggression against Iran, a Western narrative proclaiming private Arab state support for both the attack on Tehran and regime change prevailed in the mainstream US media and in statements by US officials. In the same vein US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told the Israeli newspaper the Jerusalem Post this week that the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites have 'dramatically' improved the chances of a Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal. While normalisation and its benefits were never off the table for Riyadh despite the continued war on Gaza, Israel's expansionist policy and unchecked regional militarism echoing Netanyahu's ambitions for a leadership role in the Middle East are now posing new challenges to its Arab neighbours. For the Gulf and other Arab states whose normalization policies with Israel served their political interests and enhanced relations with Washington, the prospect of Israeli regional hegemony is cause for new found concern. 'Israel has been betting on very risky moves in the past year and a half concerning its typical adversaries, mostly non state actors, which paid off so they thought they could continue the job with Iran,' Badr Al-Saif a history professor at Kuwait University and non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Netanyahu's project to establish an Israeli led regional order 'is something that we do not want or project in the Gulf region,' he said in an interview. Iran has been a difficult neighbour, Al-Saif argued, but it is not in the Gulf's national interest to see Israeli or US instigated regime change next door. 'This is destabilizing for to us. We have issues with both Israel and Iran but it we're going to rank them, Israel is a much worse adversary.' In the Saudi owned newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, Abdelmoneim Said, a member of the Egyptian senate and informed political analyst, published an article titled 'No Israeli leadership in the Middle East.' Said argued that despite Israel's military perceived victories on several fronts since October 2023, it is in no position to impose regional hegemony. And yet, he told Al-Ahram Weekly, Israel's regional militarism 'worries' Arab states. While Arab-Iranian relations were shaped by a defensive policy approach in the past, the decades-old rivalry thawed in 2023 after Tehran and Riyadh restored diplomatic ties. The UAE followed months later, while Egypt slowly progressed in its détente with Iran, which peaked earlier this month with an official visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Cairo where he met Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. The visit marked a significant departure from Cairo's strained relations with Tehran after the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 severed ties with Egypt because of its Peace Treaty with Israel. According to official press releases on both sides, Araghchi's visit to Cairo addressed ways of developing bilateral ties as well as regional issues including Israel's genocide in Gaza. Observers say that the Egyptian-Iranian entente is driven by national security concerns born out of the shifting regional dynamics since October 2023. In addition to breaking Iran's proxy Hizbullah in Lebanon and decapitating Hamas's entire leadership in Gaza, Israel's militarism expanded to Syria after the fall of Hafez Al-Assad regime, Iran's ally, in December 2024. 'Israel practically occupies one third of Syria now' as a security buffer zone, said Gameel Matar, a prominent political analyst and former Egyptian diplomat. In south Lebanon, Israeli forces continue to occupy dozens of villages and border areas since November 2024, despite a ceasefire agreement with Hizbullah. For centuries, Syria has been of strategic importance for Egypt's national security beyond its northeastern border. Israel's occupation of swaths of Syrian territories since Assad's fall, as well as its destruction of Syrian defence capabilities and navy has been a major concern for Egypt, he added. 'A weak Syria impacts Egypt strategically,' Matar said in an interview. While Arab states mended ties with Iran, US and Israeli aspirations for a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel since the 2020 Abraham Accords stalled. The UAE and Bahrain signed the Accords and were later joined by Sudan and Morocco during US President Donald Trump's first term in office, ushering in, in his words, the 'dawn of a new Middle East.' While offering nothing to Saudi Arabia in terms of progress on the Palestinian question and the two-state solution diplomatic track in exchange for normalisation, Israel and the former US Biden Administration failed to fulfill with the deal. As Israel's war on Gaza since October 2023 has expanded to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and most recently Iran, Netanyahu repeatedly proclaimed he was changing the Middle East. His decades old advocacy to attack Iran which was deterred by previous US administrations only to be fulfilled by Trump, has left Arab allies, including Gulf states increasingly wary of unleashed Israeli militarism in the region. To think that Gulf states are going to 'upend many years of hard work and rapprochement with Iran to allow an untested, unclear, American intervention is certainly not supported, publicly and privately,' Al-Saif of Kuwait University, said. Nor did Gulf states privately support the war on Iran, he continued. Such discourse may have been legible many years ago, but it is certainly not in the calculus of the Arabs and their foreign policies right now. Prospects of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced by Trump on Tuesday have had little impact on the reverberations of the aggression. Observers say that with little indication that the war was targeting Iran's nuclear programme, Israel's real motives could range from regime change in the Islamic Republic to Netanyahu's efforts to avert domestic challenges at home by starting wars and prolonging the genocide in Gaza. The 'who's next' state of mind in Arab intellectual circles thus captures Israel's emergence as a major destabilising force in the region, unlike anything that Iran has instigated since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, observers say. Alaa al-Hadidi, a former Egyptian Ambassador to Turkey and Russia, is aware of the intensity of Israel's militarism that sparked the 'who's next' debate. 'I consider it to be chatter,' he said. 'But the fact that the Arab intelligentsia is having conversations about it, that it's a given, even for a moment, is the real problem,' he Al-Ahram Weekly. As long as Netanyahu seeks apparently endless wars to keep his far-right Government Coalition in office, Israel's aggression could last for a long time, he said. 'No one expected the war that started in October 2023 to last for 20 months, but it has. His next target doesn't have to be a state. It could be Iraq's Shiite Hashd al-Sha'abi [Popular Mobilisation Forces] or the Houthis in Yemen. There is a long list,' he added. But even with American support, the nature of a new Middle East under Israeli dominance has proved to be far more complex, al-Hadidi said. A weak Iran does not necessarily tip the regional balance of power in Israel's favour. 'The instability that a massively weakened Iran could cause in the region would effectively avert Israeli dominance,' he said. In Egypt, which has the largest population in the Arab world at 109 million, popular support for Iran's retaliation to Israel's aggression in scenes that many have hailed as unprecedented in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict was felt in the sympathetic tone that both state-run and independent media outlets and social media have used to describe Iran. 'Egyptians are in awe of Iran's retaliation,' said Matar. 'This cannot be underestimated.' Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link:
Arab Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Arab Times
Israel-Iran War A Wake-Up Call For Kuwait's Oil-Dependent Economy
KUWAIT CITY, June 24: The United States of America has entered the Israeli-Iranian war, raising tensions in the region, creating a state of ambiguity, and opening the door wide to new challenges for the global economy in general and the Kuwaiti economy in particular. Kuwaiti economists have stressed the need to learn economic lessons from the current war and work hard to diversify sources of income; so that the Kuwaiti economy does not remain vulnerable to the risks of geopolitical tensions, which could pose a challenge to an economy dependent on a single commodity -- oil -- taking into consideration the growing fear of seaports closure. In separate interviews with the newspaper, they warned that the continuation of the war for more than a month would negatively impact the economies of Kuwait and neighboring countries, primarily due to the decline in interregional trade and maritime shipping. They underscored the importance of expanding agriculture, livestock, and the food industry, as well as increasing storage of goods that could last for many years in preparation for any emergency. Economic expert and former Minister of State for Housing Affairs Yahya Al-Sumait asserted that the escalation of the war between Israel and Iran and the entry of the United States as a party to the confl ict will affect the national economy, especially since the country relies on imports and exports, not only of oil but of all other products. At the same time, he expects the situation to calm down by the beginning of next month, as the free world will not accept the continuation of the war and its disastrous repercussions for people and the global economy. Economic expert and head of the Accounting Department at Kuwait University Dr. Sadiq Al-Bassam pointed out that the only benefit to the national economy from the Iran-Israel war is the rise in the price of oil, which leads to increased State revenues. 'However, the negative repercussions affect many other areas, foremost of which is the possibility of higher commodity prices if the war is prolonged or the Strait of Hormuz is closed,' he disclosed. Al-Bassam emphasized the need to learn lessons from current events to diversify the country's resources, while expanding the strategic reserve for non-perishable goods to five years. He thinks six months is insufficient, especially since Kuwait is in a highly sensitive region. He also stressed the importance of expanding livestock, agriculture, and the food industry to prevent any crisis should the war continue. Abdullah Al-Gharib, advisor for international organizations affairs at the Kuwait Journalists Association, stated that the continuation of the war has negative repercussions for the national economy, including the suspension of Kuwaiti oil exports if vital ports through which tankers pass are closed. This is especially true given that Iran, amid this war, is still threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, he added. He warned that the closure of vital ports will affect the buying and selling of food products, because the continuation of the war for more than a month will affect food supplies, prompting food traders to raise prices. He said the situation could lead to a halt in flights, which will lead to numerous economic disasters, especially since commercial aviation tranIsrael-Iran War A Wake-Up Call For Kuwait's Oil-Dependent Economysports many daily food products to Kuwait. Economic expert Ahmed Al- Khashnam reiterated that the current war has negative and positive repercussions for the national economy. He explained that the continuation of the war will inevitably lead to an increase in oil prices to more than $100, which will naturally benefit the country's oil resources more than expected. 'However, the war could also negatively affect the economy if the Strait of Hormuz and other seaports are closed. This will be a greater disaster, as the Kuwaiti economy relies primarily on oil resources,' he asserted. He believes that the situation requires the formation of a crisis management entity to resolve all problems which arise suddenly, such as this war, and might continue for long periods and potentially exhaust the economies of the Gulf states. He said the current war is affecting the global economy as a whole, not just the oil-rich Gulf states; indicating that its negative effects include a decline in all types of investments, which will lead to a decline in the profits of commercial companies that rely primarily on imports and exports. 'Furthermore, the war will lead to the flight of foreign capital or a reduction in its income. The situation is not limited to the warring countries alone, as it extends to neighboring countries, leading to a decline in trade exchange and the volume of intra-trade. This will result in a decline in commercial activity, which will raise wheat prices, as it happened in the Russia-Ukraine war. I hope the Israeli- Iranian war will stop soon,' he added.
Al Bawaba
6 days ago
- Business
- Al Bawaba
KIB hosts a panel discussion titled ‘Financing and Mortgages: Opportunities and Challenges'
Kuwait International Bank (KIB), represented by its Real Estate Department, held a panel discussion titled 'Financing and Mortgages: Opportunities and Challenges' in collaboration with the Department of Finance and Financial Institutions at the College of Business Administration, Kuwait panel, held recently as part of the ongoing collaboration between KIB and the College of Business Administration at Kuwait University, was moderated by Dr. Saad Al-Nahedh, Assistant Professor of Finance at the College. It featured Engineer Fahad Al Saleh, Manager of the Real Estate Advisory Division and the Product Development and Support Division (PDSD) at KIB's Real Estate Department, and Mr. Ibrahim Adeeb Al-Awadi, Chairman of the Real Estate Union and CEO of Aayan Real Estate this regard, Al Saleh reaffirmed KIB's commitment to strengthening its collaboration with Kuwait University, driven by its belief in the importance of promoting knowledge and equipping students with practical experience. He emphasized that this reflects the Bank's dedication to social responsibility and its leading role in the banking sector. Al Saleh also noted that such collaboration bridges academic studies with real-world application and plays a key role in empowering and preparing young people to enter the job market with confidence and panel explored the key challenges facing real estate financing in Kuwait, with a focus on the differences between residential and commercial financing in terms of repayment periods and profit rates. It emphasized the need for innovative financing solutions that can ease the financial burden on citizens, particularly also discussed the potential role of the proposed mortgage law in regulating the market and enhancing access to private residential plots. In addition, they highlighted ongoing public and private sector efforts, most notably by the Public Authority for Housing Welfare, to develop housing cities comprising more than 170,000 residential units. The panel also addressed the importance of establishing a regulatory framework for mortgage financing and advancing real estate developer projects to help balance supply and demand in the housing market, ultimately aiming to address Kuwait's broader housing the vital role of real estate developers in revitalizing the market by offering integrated property solutions that meet citizens' needs, the panel also emphasized the importance of enhancing public-private partnerships to advance legislation and regulatory frameworks that support a sustainable financing panel saw strong engagement from students and faculty members, who enriched the discussion with thoughtful questions about the future of the real estate sector in light of ongoing economic developments. It is worth noting that this initiative reflects the shared commitment of KIB and Kuwait University to social responsibility by advancing education, promoting knowledge, and supporting government efforts to provide comprehensive housing solutions, contributing to sustainability and enhancing community well-being in Kuwait.
Time of India
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Gulf monarchs on edge as Trump's unpredictability could leave them exposed if war with Iran breaks out
Gulf monarchs on edge as Trump's unpredictability risks war with Iran: As tensions rise between the U.S. and Iran, Gulf monarchs are growing increasingly anxious about what Donald Trump might do next. The Gulf region — led by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman — is walking a tightrope, trying to balance diplomacy with Iran while maintaining long-standing military ties with the United States. For leaders across the Gulf, a potential U.S. strike on Iran could turn their countries into battlegrounds, especially those hosting American military bases. Trump's unpredictable approach to foreign policy has only heightened fears. And with Israel's ongoing conflict fueling the fire, Gulf monarchies now find themselves scrambling to protect their sovereignty, oil exports, and national security. Why are Gulf countries so worried about a U.S. strike on Iran? Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait are home to major U.S. military installations. If Trump chooses to strike Iran, these bases could become prime targets for Iranian retaliation. According to Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University, U.S. involvement would be the "worst-case scenario" for Gulf allies — not because they support Iran, but because their geography and military alliances would put them directly in harm's way. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Brass Idols - Handmade Brass Statues for Home & Gifting Luxeartisanship Buy Now Iran has already warned that if attacked, it will strike back 'wherever necessary', according to Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran's deputy foreign minister. In short, Gulf leaders worry they could be caught in the crossfire of a war they didn't start. Missiles have already been spotted in the skies over Kuwait, and Bahrain tested emergency sirens earlier this week, signs that the region is bracing for a possible escalation. These fears are not unfounded — in 2019, a missile and drone strike believed to have been orchestrated by Iran crippled half of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production. Live Events How are Gulf monarchies managing ties with Iran during this crisis? In a surprising diplomatic shift, Gulf leaders have made direct contact with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in recent days. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed both spoke to Pezeshkian to express solidarity and condemn Israeli military actions in Gaza. Even Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani received a letter from Pezeshkian, while the Sultan of Oman and Gulf foreign ministers have been engaging with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. These talks show that Gulf monarchies are doing whatever it takes to cool tensions and avoid confrontation. Despite their historically rocky relationships with Tehran, the UAE and Saudi Arabia — traditionally strong backers of Trump's 'maximum pressure' campaign — are now leaning on diplomacy. They've called for a ceasefire, pushed for a return to U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, and are even relaying Tehran's willingness to talk with Washington via Qatar and Oman. What role is Trump playing in the Gulf's growing unease? While Trump enjoys warm ties with Gulf rulers — especially after a high-profile visit to the region last month — his unpredictability is causing major concern. He drew applause in Riyadh for criticizing past U.S. interventions, but leaders are still uncertain about how far he might go if Iran escalates. After Israel launched its offensive last week, Trump called both the Emir of Qatar and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, showing continued engagement. But behind the scenes, Gulf leaders are telling Washington not to use their bases for any strikes against Iran — a clear sign of their fear of retaliation. 'Bound to be guilty by association,' said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, referring to how Gulf countries could be dragged into a broader conflict just for hosting U.S. troops. And that's not the only concern. Gulf leaders are worried that Washington won't fully commit to their defense if war breaks out. After all, Iran's 2019 attack on Saudi oil infrastructure was met with a muted U.S. response, frustrating Gulf allies and pushing them to hedge their bets with diplomacy. Are Gulf states choosing between Iran and Israel? The region finds itself stuck between two powerful rivals: Iran and Israel. While some Gulf states — including the UAE and Bahrain — normalized relations with Israel in 2020, the long war in Gaza and Israeli strikes in Syria have raised questions about Israel's regional ambitions. Arab leaders have grown frustrated with what they see as Israeli overreach, despite privately welcoming the weakening of Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah. As one Gulf analyst put it, 'An imperial Israel is not good for the region.' Gulf leaders now fear a destabilized balance of power. They still see a nuclear-armed Iran as a grave threat, but not at the expense of a dominant Israel that could upend regional equilibrium. Republican Congressman Don Bacon, who recently visited the region, said Arab officials were united in their view: 'Iran, a nuclear-armed Iran, is an existential threat.' Yet, those same leaders are also worried that Trump's confrontational style could push Iran to lash out — and their nations could pay the price. Can diplomacy hold off another Gulf crisis? Right now, Gulf monarchs are betting on back-channel diplomacy to keep the fire from spreading. They've opened communication lines with Tehran, urged restraint from Washington, and are even acting as regional mediators. But with Trump's decision-making up in the air, and the U.S.–Israel alliance as strong as ever, Gulf leaders know things can spiral quickly. They're trying to avoid a repeat of 2019 or worse — a full-scale war that could pull the entire Gulf into chaos. The situation remains tense, but for now, the Gulf is talking more and striking less — a risky but necessary move in one of the world's most volatile neighborhoods.
