‘Only Murders in the Building' Emmy odds for Selena Gomez, the Martins, and all those guest stars
According to our updated odds, Martin Short (Oliver Putnam) is out front to win his Best Comedy Actor category, just months after he shockingly scored at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. His costars, Steve Martin (Charles-Haden Savage) and Selena Gomez (Mabel Mora), are both in sixth place for nominations. The three leads play unlikely crime-solvers who podcast about murders that occur in and around their building, the fancy-schmancy Arconia in New York City.
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Season 4 features a sprawling roster of special guests, including two actors — Meryl Streep (Loretta Durkin) and Paul Rudd (Glen Stubbins) — who received supporting nominations last year. Due to an already-controversial new Emmy rule, performers are ineligible to compete in guest if they were previously nominated for the same show in lead or supporting. Thus, both Streep and Rudd are competing in Best Comedy Supporting Actress/Actor again, where she places eighth and he places 12th.
In the Best Comedy Guest Actress/Actor contests, Melissa McCarthy (Doreen) has the strongest chance of reaping a bid, as she's in the sixth position. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Donna Williams) rounds out the top 10, while Amy Ryan (Jan Bellows) and Griffin Dunne (Milton Dudenoff) are also in the running to hear their names called on nominations morning.
Other guest stars who appeared in more than 50 percent of the Season 4 episodes, and thus have to compete in supporting (per the Emmys rulebook), include the following: Molly Shannon (Bev Melon), Jane Lynch (Sazz Pataki), Eva Longoria (herself), Zach Galifianakis (himself), Richard Kind (Vince Fish), Eugene Levy (himself), and Kumail Nanjiani (Rudy Thurber).
SEE2025 Emmy Awards calendar: Key dates
Below are the current Emmy predictions in 20 top categories, updated June 5. You can see how the races have evolved over time by examining our previous Emmy snapshots on March 19, March 28, April 7, April 15, April 23, April 29, May 7, May 16, May 22, and May 30.
Gold Derby's Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 2,600 people (and counting), including experts we've polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the Emmy predictions by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and sound off in our TV forum.
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hacks — 4/1 2. The Studio — 11/2 3. The Bear — 7/1 4. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1 5. Abbott Elementary — 8/1 6. Shrinking — 19/2 7. Nobody Wants This — 11/1 8. What We Do in the Shadows — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Four Seasons, A Man on the Inside, Agatha All Along, The Residence, The Righteous Gemstones, Colin from Accounts
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 16/5 2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 5/1 4. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1 5. Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — 19/2 6. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along), Tina Fey (The Four Seasons), Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows), Wendi McLendon-Covey (St. Denis Medical)
Hulu
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 18/5 2. Seth Rogen (The Studio) — 4/1 3. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 9/2 4. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1 5. Jason Segel (Shrinking) — 10/1 6. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) — 11/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside), Steve Carell (The Four Seasons), Benito Skinner (Overcompensating), Brian Jordan Alvarez (English Teacher), Nathan Fielder (The Rehearsal), Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) — 31/10 2. Liza Cólon-Zayas (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — 6/1 4. Catherine O'Hara (The Studio) — 15/2 5. Jessica Williams (Shrinking) — 15/2 6. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Kathryn Hahn (The Studio), Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building), Patti LuPone (Agatha All Along), Meg Stalter (Hacks), Linda Lavin (Mid-Century Modern), Susan Kelechi Watson (The Residence)
Chuck Hodes/FX
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) — 37/10 2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 9/2 3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks) — 5/1 4. Ike Barinholtz (The Studio) — 6/1 5. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) — 8/1 6. Michael Urie (Shrinking) — 21/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Timothy Simons (Nobody Wants This), Brett Goldstein (Shrinking), Marcello Hernández (Saturday Night Live), Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building)
FX
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jamie Lee Curtis (The Bear) — 19/5 2. Julianne Nicholson (Hacks) — 9/2 3. Cynthia Erivo (Poker Face) — 5/1 4. Maya Rudolph (Saturday Night Live) — 7/1 5. Kaitlin Olson (Hacks) — 9/1 6. Melissa McCarthy (Only Murders in the Building) — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Zoë Kravitz (The Studio), Sarah Polley (The Studio), Ariana Grande (Saturday Night Live), Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Only Murders in the Building), Carol Burnett (Hacks), Olivia Wilde (The Studio)
Apple TV+
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Bryan Cranston (The Studio) — 31/10 2. Jon Bernthal (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Martin Scorsese (The Studio) — 11/2 4. Ron Howard (The Studio) — 8/1 5. Christopher McDonald (Hacks) — 21/2 6. Martin Short (Saturday Night Live) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Will Poulter (The Bear), Giancarlo Esposito (Poker Face), Dave Chappelle (Saturday Night Live), John Mulaney (Saturday Night Live), Timothee Chalamet (Saturday Night Live), Mike Myers (Saturday Night Live)
Apple
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 4/1 2. The Pitt — 11/2 3. The White Lotus — 13/2 4. The Last of Us — 13/2 5. Slow Horses — 9/1 6. The Diplomat — 21/2 7. Andor — 11/1 8. Paradise — 22/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Squid Game, The Handmaid's Tale, Bad Sisters, The Day of the Jackal, House of the Dragon, Yellowjackets
Erik Voake/CBS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 69/20 2. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) — 4/1 3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 9/2 4. Britt Lower (Severance) — 5/1 5. Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — 8/1 6. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Keira Knightley (Black Doves), Carrie Preston (Elsbeth), Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters), Zoe Saldaña (Lioness), Kaitlin Olson (High Potential), Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
John Johnson/Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Noah Wyle (The Pitt) — 7/2 2. Adam Scott (Severance) — 37/10 3. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 11/2 4. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) — 6/1 5. Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) — 13/2 6. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Diego Luna (Andor), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors), Billy Bob Thornton (Landman), Jeff Bridges (The Old Man), Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat)
HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Carrie Coon (The White Lotus) — 39/10 2. Parker Posey (The White Lotus) — 9/2 3. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 6/1 4. Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus) — 8/1 5. Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) — 10/1 6. Patricia Arquette (Severance) — 14/1 7. Isabela Merced (The Last of Us) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Taylor Dearden (The Pitt), Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt), Leslie Bibb (The White Lotus), Dichen Lachman (Severance), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise), Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses)
HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) — 4/1 2. John Turturro (Severance) — 9/2 3. Tramell Tillman (Severance) — 6/1 4. Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) — 13/2 5. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) — 9/1 6. Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus) — 19/2 7. Patrick Schwarzenegger (The White Lotus) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Patrick Ball (The Pitt), Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses), Zach Cherry (Severance), Sam Nivola (The White Lotus), Stellan Skarsgård (Andor), Gerran Howell (The Pitt)
Liane Hentscher/HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kaitlyn Dever (The Last of Us) — 82/25 2. Catherine O'Hara (The Last of Us) — 39/10 3. Gwendoline Christie (Severance) — 5/1 4. Merritt Wever (Severance) — 11/2 5. Cherry Jones (The Handmaid's Tale) — 10/1 6. Hilary Swank (Yellowjackets) — 12/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jane Alexander (Severance), Tati Gabrielle (The Last of Us), Julie Hagerty (Matlock), Sydney Cole Alexander (Severance), Laurie Metcalf (Elsbeth), Angela Bassett (Doctor Odyssey)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us) — 37/10 2. Shawn Hatosy (The Pitt) — 4/1 3. Scott Glenn (The White Lotus) — 9/2 4. Joe Pantoliano (The Last of Us) — 6/1 5. Mackenzie Astin (The Pitt) — 23/2 6. Beau Bridges (Matlock) — 20/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ben Mendelsohn (Andor), Danny Ramirez (The Last of Us), Robby Benson (Severance), Gong Yoo (Squid Game), Michael Emerson (Elsbeth), John Noble (Severance)
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adolescence — 13/8 2. The Penguin — 19/5 3. Dying for Sex — 11/2 4. Disclaimer — 17/2 5. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 10/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Say Nothing, Black Mirror, Presumed Innocent, La Maquina, Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist, Sirens
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Rebel Ridge — 23/10 2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 71/20 3. Out of My Mind — 4/1 4. Mountainhead — 15/2 5. Am I OK? — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Gorge, Nonnas, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat, G20, The Parenting, Another Simple Favor
Macall Polay/HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 2/1 2. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) — 31/10 3. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 9/2 4. Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy) — 9/1 5. Kaitlyn Dever (Apple Cider Vinegar) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ellen Pompeo (Good American Family), Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Gorge), Ari Graynor (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Uzo Aduba (The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat), Amanda Seyfried (Long Bright River)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 7/4 2. Stephen Graham (Adolescence) — 17/5 3. Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 13/2 4. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 15/2 5. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) — 10/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror), Nicholas Alexander Chavez (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Steve Carell (Mountainhead), Robert De Niro (Zero Day)
Ben Blackall/Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Erin Doherty (Adolescence) — 4/1 2. Deirdre O'Connell (The Penguin) — 5/1 3. Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex) — 11/2 4. Lesley Manville (Disclaimer) — 7/1 5. Sissy Spacek (Dying for Sex) — 19/2 6. Christine Tremarco (Adolescence) — 21/2 7. Chloe Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent), Leila George (Disclaimer), Imogen Faith Reid (Good American Family), Angela Bassett (Zero Day), Julianne Moore (Sirens), Taraji P. Henson (Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist)
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Owen Cooper (Adolescence) — 18/5 2. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 5/1 3. Rhenzy Feliz (The Penguin) — 7/1 4. Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex) — 15/2 5. Ashley Walters (Adolescence) — 9/1 6. Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent) — 10/1 7. Kodi Smit-McPhee (Disclaimer) — 22/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Hugh Grant (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy), Brian Cox (The Parenting), Jay Duplass (Dying for Sex), Diego Luna (La Maquina), Nathan Lane (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Sacha Baron Cohen (Disclaimer)
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