National Hurricane Center has made changes to forecasting – What you need to know

Yahoo

04-06-2025

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, and since last season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced that they made some changes to their forecasting.
The National Hurricane Center has made several updates to its forecast protocol and graphics in order to improve messaging, accuracy, and more advanced warning.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the cone of uncertainty will be 3-5% smaller than in years past. This will better pinpoint where the hurricane will go. The cone of uncertainty, also called the potential track area, is the forecast of where the center of the storm will be in the next five days.
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They will continue to make the experimental forecast graphic that includes inland tropical alerts. Tropical Storm watches and warnings, along with Hurricane watches and warnings, are overlaid on top of the cone of uncertainty. This makes it easier to see the scope of the impacts the wind will have on inland areas.
Here's a comparison of the old look and the experimental look.
Along with the addition of the inland watches and warnings, they also made some slight changes to the cone of uncertainty. The old way drew the cone of uncertainty with a different pattern for forecast days 4 and 5. Now, the 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty will look the same throughout.
Continuing with the theme of improved forecast accuracy, the National Hurricane Center will issue alerts and forecast cones earlier for storms that have yet to form. This means the NHC will have the ability to issue tropical advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of the storm. The old way was just 48 hours ahead of the storm's forecast arrival.
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The NHC will also start issuing a rip current risk map. This product was added because, according to the NHC, during the past decade, there has been an increase in surf and rip current fatalities in the United States. Below is an example of what it will look like.
The rip current risk map will be issued when there is one or more named storms in the ocean. They will use information from local National Weather Service offices to determine the risk of rip currents.
The National Hurricane Center said it would like more feedback to continue improving its messaging and forecasts. To give feedback to the NHC, go here.
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