Peek into surprise RBA decision as rate cut on cards

Perth Now

4 days ago

A behind-the-scenes glimpse at the Reserve Bank's shock interest rate decision could offer clues into its next ruling.
Borrowers and mortgage holders are still reeling after its board flouted expectations and held the cash rate at 3.85 per cent in July.
But the release of tameeting minutes on Tuesday could shine a light on the reasoning and prepare financial markets for the central bank's next decision, which will be handed down on August 12.
It was expected to deliver a 25 basis point cut but instead came to a rate hold in a split decision as most board members were awaiting confirmation inflation was heading towards the 2.5 per cent midpoint of its target range.
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock is also expected to deliver a speech on Thursday that will provide answers for economists and ordinary Australians alike.
But many economic analysts believe an unanticipated jump in Australia's unemployment rate will likely force the RBA's hand at its August meeting.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday revealed the jobless rate had jumped from 4.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent in June, defying market expectations it would hold steady for another month.
These figures were the last set of labour force data before the August decision and though many have noted it still reflects a relatively low unemployment rate, it also signals a softening in the market that the Reserve Bank did not expect until the year's end.
CreditorWatch's chief economist Ivan Colhoun said it marked a clear miss that made the July rates ruling appear "overly cautious" and that an August cut was "virtually locked in".
The increase in unemployment has been attributed to growing global uncertainty, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers pointing to international conflicts and the looming threat of US tariffs.
NAB's head of Australian economics Gareth Spence has said the RBA will continue to focus on domestic figures to guide its decision and is expecting cuts in August, November and February - eventually taking the cash rate to 3.1 per cent.
"We see the RBA remaining cautious," he said.
"The uncertain global backdrop sees a risk of faster and deeper cuts, although the domestic data has remained resilient to date."
But given the initial revelations about the July results, other economists like VanEck's head of investments Russel Chesler have stressed the importance of upcoming quarterly inflation figures as a "vital data point" that will determine the RBA's next decision.
The federal government is expecting the jobless rate to rise to the "middle fours" but Dr Chalmers maintains a soft landing is still the expectation.
Wall Street was meanwhile a little subdued to close the week, amid reports President Donald Trump is pushing for steep new tariffs on EU products.
Speculation over a minimum impost of between 15 per cent and 20 per cent in any deal with the European bloc sent US indices lower before a partial recovery on Friday.
The S&P 500 lost 0.57 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 6,296.79, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 10.01 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 20,895.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.30 points, or 0.32 per cent, to 44,342.19.
Australian share futures plunged 49 points, or 0.56 per cent, to 8,898.
However the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday gained 118.2 points, or 1.37 per cent, to 8,757.2, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 116 points, or 1.3 per cent, to 9,006.
The gains were the ASX200's biggest since a 4.5 per cent rally on April 10 and the first time it has crossed 8,700.