Gold rate outlook: Gold prices may stay range-bound ahead of US Fed, BoJ meet; tariff deadline to add uncertainty
are likely to remain in a consolidation phase over the coming week, as investors await critical central bank policy decisions and developments on global trade negotiations, analysts said.
The upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Bank of Japan's rate decision, and the approaching August 1 deadline for US tariff negotiations are expected to drive short-term price movements. Markets will also track key macroeconomic indicators, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, employment data, and global manufacturing PMIs, ANI reported.
'Gold prices may see some consolidation in the week ahead as the focus will be on the outcome of trade negotiations between the US-Euro zone and the US-China, along with policy meetings of the US Fed and Bank of Japan,' said Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services.
'Both central banks are expected to keep rates steady, but their guidance will be closely watched.'
Mer noted that while the Fed is under pressure to cut rates, the Bank of Japan is being tracked for a potential hike.
Domestically, gold futures for October delivery fell 2.74%, sliding from a recent high of Rs 1,01,543 to Rs 98,764 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
'The rally in gold took a breather due to a mix of lower safe-haven demand, profit-taking, and optimism surrounding trade deals, particularly between the US-Japan and US-EU,' said Prathamesh Mallya, DVP - Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One.
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Mallya said gold could remain under pressure in the short term, especially with investors eyeing the upcoming US GDP data.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said rupee volatility tied to tariff-related uncertainties could lend limited support to domestic bullion prices.
On the global front, Comex gold futures for August delivery dropped $37.90, or 1.12%, to $3,335.60 per ounce in New York.
The fall followed a sharp retreat from the recent high of $3,438 amid extended tariff truce hopes between the US and China.
N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura Securities, said gold's weakness reflects a fading safe-haven appeal as equity markets and US Treasury yields rise on the back of robust AI-led earnings and broader risk-on sentiment.
'The next big move in gold will depend on whether the US Fed signals a dovish tilt or if tariff tensions escalate,' he added. 'While renewed Chinese central bank buying could support gold later in 2025, for now, the market is likely to remain sideways.'
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