Shrunk! July sees drop in flights across India

Mint

18 hours ago

As the calendar turned from June to July, there was a sudden drop in domestic flights in India. Daily domestic flight operations fell below the 3,000 mark, while passenger numbers slid below 4 lakh. This comes a fortnight after Delhi Airport began work on runway 10/28, which had already led to a reduction in flight operations.
The drop aligns with seasonal trends, as the July–August–September quarter is traditionally weaker for Indian aviation. Airlines often adjust capacity to match lower demand during this period, sending aircraft for scheduled checks at MRO facilities to ensure minimal downtime during the October–December quarter, which is typically a peak season for Indian skies.
Data shared by Cirium, an aviation analytics company, exclusively for this article, shows that July will see 1159 fewer flights per week than June, with the first three days of the month seeing fewer than 3,000 flights a day, as shared by the Ministry of Civil Aviation on its website.
While Air India came up with a reduction plan for 5 per cent of its schedule, most airlines have gone ahead with a cut in domestic schedule, with IndiGo's cuts being even higher than 5 per cent. The difference is that Air India has cut both domestic and international schedules, while IndiGo has moved capacity to international routes during the domestic lean times.
The top-most route seeing a loss of flights is between Bengaluru and Goa, where 22 flights a week are being reduced, 14 by Air India Express and eight by IndiGo. This is followed by the Bengaluru-Kochi route, which sees a drop of 21 weekly flights. The third route to see a loss of flights is to Port Blair from Kolkata, which will see 18 fewer flights a week. There are a little over 300 sectors losing some frequencies each week.
IndiGo is reducing 994 weekly flights on domestic routes in June compared to July. This is a whopping 7.6 per cent drop in departures and 6.9 per cent drop in seats on offer, translating into a 7 per cent drop in capacity by Available Seat Miles. However, the airline is adjusting capacity on international routes where it has progressively added capacity in June as well as July. The airline added 9.5 per cent more capacity by Available Seat Miles in June, with 6.1 per cent more seats on offer and 6.3 per cent additional weekly frequencies, which started with the Delhi runway closure and moved into July.
Air India Express has also moved capacity to International routes, with flights to Jeddah from multiple points coming up in July. The airline sees a rise of 4.7 per cent in international departures, translating into an increase in Available Seat Miles by 6.5 per cent. The airline reduced 2.7 per cent of its total departures in July, translating into 10 departures a day on average.
Air India is already shrinking between 5 per cent to 6 per cent in July, and it has gradually gone down since the second week of June.
Even as airlines cut routes, there are a little over 100 routes which see additional frequencies in July. This includes routes to Hindon by IndiGo as it launches flights to Hindon in late July, along with the reinstatement of flights to Srinagar, which were pulled out in the aftermath of the terrorist attack in April.
The industry had held on to the same schedule in July last year without any cuts. Not only are there steep cuts in July this year when compared to the previous month, but the Indian market, often touted as the fastest growing market, is seeing a drop of 567 weekly flights in July this year, compared to July 2024. The airlines have not had the April-June quarter (Q1-FY26) the way they would have anticipated. The schedule cuts are an indicator of trying to adjust the capacity more closely to the demand scenario for the weak season in the domestic segment. The sub-four lakh count of passengers might be worrying for analysts and the government, which has been hoping for a consistent over 5-lakh passengers per day; however, this could bode very well for the finances of the airlines, which are stretched by one way or another.
There also remains the issue of passengers not wanting to fly post-Air India crash in Ahmedabad. Coupled with the lean season and an increased fuel price environment, this adds to the uncertainty for the airlines. The Independence Day weekend will be looked at by airlines with wide eyes to see how the traffic returns.