Four reasons for MLB's glacial trade market — and why it's likely to change soon

New York Times

3 days ago

It's been almost a week since the Arizona Diamondbacks declared themselves sellers, sending their first baseman, Josh Naylor, to the Seattle Mariners. It was an opening salvo — a pretty big one at that — and in that instant it seemed as if anything could happen at any moment leading up to the 2025 trade deadline.
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In all the days since … very little has happened.
Thursday's 6 p.m. ET deadline is less than 48 hours away, and the Naylor deal remains the biggest trade of the week. The Baltimore Orioles have traded a couple of relievers, and the Detroit Tigers have acquired a new fourth starter, and the Tampa Bay Rays have played musical chairs behind the plate. But entering as of Tuesday night, Naylor is so far the highest ranked player (No. 17) from The Athletic's Big Board to change teams.
using @baseball_ref transaction data, here's a look at how many trades have been made on each day leading up to the trade deadline over the past 25 years
quantity of trades has soared recently, so we're basically guaranteed to have a flurry of activity over the final 48 hours pic.twitter.com/jcjfP34UYO
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) July 29, 2025
Some of the slower pace is surely in our heads. Every year, the bulk of the action comes in the last two days before the deadline. Some of it is the usual haggling over the cost of a trade chip. For example, we heard the Pittsburgh Pirates initially were asking for one of a team's Top 5 prospects for closer David Bednar, who at one point this year was demoted to Triple A.
But there do seem to be some quirks of this particular deadline that might be slowing the pace. At least for now.
The deadline is fast approaching and executives want to make moves. It's only a matter of time before this glacial market heats up and starts to really flow. Until then, here are some of the factors that seem to be gumming up the works.
Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. is the poster boy for this. The White Sox want to sell him as a 27-year-old superstar who's definitely worth a $20-million team option next year. Interested buyers surely point out that he's been a below average hitter two years in a row and will be lucky to be a 1.0 fWAR player at the end this season.
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How do two sides come up with a fair value for a guy like that?
Since last month, the White Sox have deployed scouts across minor-league homes of several contenders, including the San Diego Padres and New York Mets. Both clubs along with the Philadelphia Phillies and possibly others remain in play for Robert. Evaluators from multiple clubs say Robert presents the most upside among the group of center-field trade candidates, but he also carries risk. He was an All-Star in 2023 when he hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases. However, he has struggled since then while dealing with injuries.
This trade market is littered with similar resumes: high-end talent producing low-end results. Sandy Alcantara is a 29-year-old Cy Young winner. He also had a 6.66 ERA entering Tuesday's start against the Cardinals. Zac Gallen is also 29, nearly won a Cy Young award of his own, and his ERA is 5.60. Ozzie Albies is a 28-year-old three-time All-Star having the worst season of his career. Marcell Ozuna was an MVP candidate this year, and now he's a bench player for a fourth-place team. The Rays' Taj Bradley was just demoted to Triple A.
The Rangers' Adolis Garcia doesn't hit like he used to. The Pirates' Bryan Reynolds hasn't hit much either. On the South Side, Adrian Houser has been a good big league starter for all of two months, while Cleveland's Shane Bieber hasn't been a big league starter at all since 2023 and just finished his fourth minor league rehab start since last year's Tommy John surgery.
In particular, Houser is a great example. His market is strong with a few teams indicating serious interest, league sources said. But as of Tuesday afternoon, people with knowledge of the situation said nothing was close.
It's hard to blame teams — both buyers and sellers — for having a hard time knowing what to make of some of these guys.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the busiest teams on the trade market, yet even they seem unsure which direction they're going. Two weeks ago, the Rays made a minor trade for reliever Bryan Baker. Then they made an even smaller deal for utility man Tristan Gray. Their next move was to deal away starting catcher Danny Jansen to the Brewers, after which they immediately acquired a new catcher from the Marlins, Nick Fortes.
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The Rays have been busy, but they've been busy threading the needle in a way that does little to define the trade market as a whole. The San Diego Padres also seem to be considering moves that blur the line between buying and selling. They could trade away closer Robert Suarez or starter Dylan Cease, but seem to want big league bats in return.
Consider the level of talent that those two teams alone have left in questionable trade status: Suarez could be the best closer available, Brandon Lowe would almost certainly be the best second baseman, Cease would have some of the highest rotation upside in a market that lacks a can't-miss ace, and Yandy Diaz would be one of the best right-handed bats in a market that leans heavily toward the left-handed batters box.
Last week, executives from contending teams pointed to the weekend as a key turning point for other clubs facing hard decisions. It came and went. Then they suggested Monday as the tipping point. And yet?
Ken Rosenthal wrote on Tuesday that the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers have also been slow to pick a lane. Earlier in the week, multiple rival executives simply referred to the Angels' situation as 'weird' because they don't want to sell but need to. Unlike the Giants and Rangers, the Angels (52-55) have a losing record.
The Minnesota Twins have already started selling. The Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles are obvious sellers. But do any of those three teams think they'll still be rebuilding next year? Probably not, and that complicates each team's approach at the deadline.
The Twins stand out as a wild card. But rival executives say it's hard to know where things stand with them. One executive said that in return for their players, they were asking for the sky.
It's one thing for the Twins to trade Chris Paddack two months before free agency. It would be another thing for them to trade ace Joe Ryan or closer Jhoan Duran, each of whom could be a key piece toward contention in 2026. The Braves and Orioles clearly feel they have cores that will be in the thick of the playoff race in 2026.
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The St. Louis Cardinals have signaled an intention to sell, though that's likely only to a certain extent. They can easily trade closer Ryan Helsley or another reliever on an expiring contract, but All-Star Brendan Donovan, 23-year-old Jordan Walker and emerging slugger Ivan Herrera aren't so easy to move. The Washington Nationals also are obvious sellers — to a point. They seem unwilling to move their top young players, knowing most of their older players have limited trade value.
Even the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are going on a full decade without a postseason appearance, are reportedly conflicted about whether to fully sell. Mitch Keller could be one of the best starting pitchers and David Bednar one of the best closers on the market, but the Pirates would also like to build a winner around Paul Skenes. Do they need those guys to do it?
When the market's sellers aren't fully committed to selling, there's only so much the buyers can do to drive the market.
The most shocking news of the past week wasn't an out-of-nowhere trade or a multi-team blockbuster, it was the league's announcement that Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has been placed on paid leave amid a sports gambling investigation.
And just like that, a trade market fascination was officially off the table — Clase's availability was one of the true wild cards of this lead-up to the deadline — and an on-the-fence team was forced to think differently about its short-term and long-term future. How do the Guardians see their next three years potentially without their mainstay in the ninth inning? Is Steven Kwan more readily available than he was before Clase vanished indefinitely?
There are unusual trade deadline circumstances happening all over the sport. The Twins and Rays on the verge of changing ownership. The Cardinals have a new head of baseball operations ready to take over in the offseason.The Los Angeles Dodgers could get Max Muncy, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech back from the injured list within the next months. Are those the reinforcements they need, or should they trade prospect capital for more?
Every team faces difficult decisions this time of year, but this trade deadline has some X factors that go beyond the usual player evaluations and roster analysis.
(Top photo of Luis Robert Jr.: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)