‘Begging for migrants': Australia's telling new fertility statistics

News.com.au

2 days ago

New findings from financial firm KPMG have added to growing concerns about Australia's labour force and economy.
The study reveals that while the number of births nationally in 2024 reached 292,500 in 2024, it is still a 3.8 per cent drop from 304,000 in 2019.
The fertility rate (the average number of children over a woman's lifetime), sat at 1.51 in 2024, far below the 2.1 rate needed to sustain Australia's growth.
It found outer-suburban and regional Australians were most likely to sustain higher numbers of children per person, with the largest increases in fertility rate felt outside the nation's capital cities. Meanwhile, major cities Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have all seen further declines in the fertility rate.
It comes amid cost-of-living pressures, which KPMG attributes as a key factor driving this reduction.
'Rising rents, mortgage payments and childcare costs in the metro areas are putting a handbrake on people's plans to start or grow their family,' KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley said.
'Instead, regional communities are continuing to emerge as popular places to live, work and raise a family, with affordability now top of mind for many Australians.'
The primary concerns around a low birth rate relate to population growth and an ageing population.
Liz Allen, demographer at the ANU Centre for Social Policy Research, believes that the issue is unlikely to resolve itself, saying that Australia will unlikely experience a 'bounce back' without drastic policy changes in areas such as housing affordability, economic security and gender equality.
'We've essentially hit rock bottom, and trying to come back from that is going to be incredibly difficult,' she said to SBS.
'It will be a task that requires enormous policy and political intervention.'
Brisbane based psychologist Dr William von Hippel said the low birth rates would drive governments to 'fight to let migrants in, not keep them out', as a bid to support the workforce needs.
'If you look at the current population of the globe, it's meant to peak somewhere between 2070 and 2090, probably around eight billion and some change,' he told the Diary of a CEO podcast.
'In 50 years, that argument is going to be, how can we convince people of country X to come into our country because we're going to shrink and disappear,' he said.
According to research published in the medical journal The Lancet, Australia's fertility rates could fall further to 1.45 before 2030.