More of Trump trade uncertainty
A day before the deadline was supposed to expire, the US announced almost identical tariffs on 14 countries — they range from Japan to Myanmar in economic importance and India is yet to get a 'letter' — and threatened significant additional tariffs in case they retaliate. To be sure, Trump has kicked the can of tariff imposition down the road once more, this time to August 1. A few days ago, he announced a differentiated tariff deal with Vietnam: 20% for Vietnamese goods and 40% on trans-shipments (read redirected Chinese exports to the US). A temporary truce with China had been struck even earlier.
Is there a larger takeaway from all this? Three observations can be made.
One, Trump seems to have overestimated his deal making abilities with other countries. The tariffs are pretty much what they were in April, and the announcements have been unilateral rather than bilateral. Two, the US's approach to trade has now clearly shifted from a 'target China' strategy to 'target everyone'. While Trump has agreed to a 55% tariff on China as part of a temporary truce, tariffs on other countries are also significantly high, even though lower than China. The rest of the world will clearly take note of this. Three, and this is the most important, is the message that in order to negotiate with the US, one has to have a strong bargaining chip now. Trump's détente with China came after the latter held back its critical rare earth mineral supplies, the lack of which would have crippled electronics manufacturing in the US. Countries which do not have such cards against the US are being dealt a much worse deal.
To be sure, Trump's ultimate test would be whether the US economy can survive the inflationary impact of these tariffs as and when they kick in. The August 1 deadline might well be extended once again. Uncertainty is the only certainty now.
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