2025 Wimbledon odds: Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka enter as favorites again

New York Times

18 hours ago

The French Open produced a pair of memorable finals, but despite going from the slowest surface to the fastest, the players at the top of the odds boards are largely the same. Carlos Alcaraz is ahead of Jannik Sinner as the tournament favorite for Wimbledon on the men's side, while Aryna Sabalenka remains the pre-tournament favorite, just as she was for the Australian Open and French Open.
It's a sign of how dominant the top few players have been, and the shrinking difference between the different surfaces, that the favorites are the same at the French Open and Wimbledon.
The budding rivalry between Alcaraz and Sinner is fresh on the minds of tennis fans. After the two went five sets in Paris, a rematch on Centre Court would be must-see stuff. Sinner hasn't won a Grand Slam off of hard court yet, and Wimbledon is the last Slam final he has yet to reach after his runner-up finish at Roland Garros.
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As the two-time defending champion, it's no surprise Alcaraz is ahead of Sinner in the odds. Alcaraz is +115 on BetMGM, while Sinner is at +190. That's not a big difference, but there is a sizable gap after those two. Novak Djokovic is +650 to win what would be his eighth Wimbledon, matching Roger Federer's record haul.
Anyone else would be a surprise to betters. There is some variety in the names compared to the top contenders in Melbourne and Paris. Englishman Jack Draper is fourth in the odds at +1600. The 23-year-old has a big serve that suits grass, he's up to No. 4 in the ATP rankings and he will likely have extra energy from the home crowd, but he only has two main draw wins at Wimbledon to his name. Draper put himself on the map with a semifinal showing at last year's U.S. Open, but has lost in the fourth round at the two Slams this year.
On the women's side, Sabalenka is a logical favorite, but the field is far more wide open than the men's one. She is +290 to win, giving her solidly longer odds than both of the top two men.
Sabalenka is the World No. 1 and has been unbelievably consistent at making deep runs at Grand Slams. She has made at least the quarterfinals at the last 10 Slams she has entered, with nine semifinals, six finals and three titles in that span. Sabalenka has made the final in five of her last six Slams (she did not compete at Wimbledon last year), which in the 21st Century puts her in the company of only Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Justine Henin.
A big server and hard hitter, Sabalenka's game should translate well to grass, but Wimbledon is the one Slam final she has not played in yet. Not playing in 2022 because of the All England Lawn Tennis Club's ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes, and missing last year's edition due to a shoulder injury, has played a part in that.
The usual contenders don't have a track record at Wimbledon. Iga Świątek (+800) has dipped in form and has only made one quarterfinal in London. Coco Gauff (+800), who is fresh off her French Open triumph, made her name by reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon as a 15-year-old in 2019, but hasn't surpassed that result since.
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Elena Rybakina, the 2022 champion, is the second-favorite behind Sabalenka at +650. She has made at least the quarterfinals in the past three editions of Wimbledon.
Markéta Vondroušová, the 2023 champ, is +1200, behind Świątek and Gauff. Defending champion Barbora Krejčíková missed the Australian Open due to injury and only returned to action in May. She is a significant long shot at +15000 (150-to-1).
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(Photo of Carlos Alcaraz: Hannah Peters / Getty Images)