
'Beautiful' or 'Ugly,' Trump's big bill shapes the battle for House control in 2026 midterms
From the Central Valley of California to Midwestern battlegrounds and suburban districts of the northeast, the new law already is shaping the 2026 midterm battle for control of the House of Representatives. The outcome will set the tone for Trump's final two years in the Oval Office.
Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to break the GOP's chokehold on Washington and reestablish a power center to counter Trump. There's added pressure to flip the House given that midterm Senate contests are concentrated in Republican-leaning states, making it harder for Democrats to reclaim that chamber.
As Republicans see it, they've now delivered broad tax cuts, an unprecedented investment in immigration enforcement and new restraints on social safety net programs. Democrats see a law that rolls back health insurance access and raises costs for middle-class Americans while cutting taxes mostly for the rich, curtailing green energy initiatives and restricting some workers' organizing rights.
'It represents the broken promise they made to the American people,' said Rep. Suzan DelBene, a Washington Democrat who chairs the party's House campaign arm. 'We're going to continue to hold Republicans accountable for this vote.'
Parties gear up for a fight
Whether voters see it that way will be determined on a district-by-district level, but the battle will be more intense in some places than others. Among the 435 House districts, only 69 contests were decided by less than 10 percentage points in the 2024 general election.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has so far identified 26 Democratic-held seats it must defend vigorously, along with 34 GOP-held seats it believes could be ripe to flip. Republicans' campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has so far listed 18 GOP incumbents as priorities, plus two districts opened by retirements.
There are a historically low number of so-called crossover districts: Only 13 Democrats represent districts Trump carried in 2024, while just three Republicans serve districts Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried.
Both committees are busy recruiting challengers and open-seat candidates and more retirements could come, so the competitive map will evolve. Still, there are clusters of districts guaranteed to influence the national result.
California, despite its clear lean to Democrats statewide, has at least nine House districts expected to be up for grabs: three in the Central Valley and six in southern California. Six are held by Democrats, three by the GOP.
Pennsylvania features four districts that have been among the closest national House races for several consecutive cycles. They include a suburban Philadelphia seat represented by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, one of just two House Republicans to vote against Trump's bill and one of the three GOP lawmakers from a district Harris won. Fitzpatrick cited the Medicaid cuts.
Vice President JD Vance plans on Wednesday to be in Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan's northwest Pennsylvania district to tout the GOP package. Bresnahan's seat is a top Democratic target.
Iowa and Wisconsin, meanwhile, feature four contiguous GOP-held districts in farm-heavy regions where voters could be swayed by fallout from Trump's tariffs.
Democrats fight to define the GOP
Beyond bumper-sticker labels – Trump's preferred 'Big Beautiful Bill' versus Democrats' 'Big Ugly Bill' retort – the 900-page law is, in fact, an array of policies with varying impact.
Democrats hammer Medicaid and food assistance cuts, some timed to take full effect only after the 2026 midterms, along with Republicans' refusal to extend tax credits to some people who obtained health insurance through the Affordable Care Act.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 11.8 million more Americans would become uninsured by 2034 if the bill became law; 3 million more would not qualify for food stamps, also known as SNAP benefits.
'Folks will die here in Louisiana and in other parts of the country,' House Minority Leader Jeffries warned last week during a town hall in Republican Speaker Mike Johnson's home state of Louisiana.
Jeffries singled out vulnerable Republicans like California Rep. David Valadao, who represents a heavily agricultural Central Valley district where more than half the population is eligible for the joint state-federal insurance program. California allows immigrants with legal status and those who are undocumented to qualify for Medicaid, so not all Medicaid recipients are voters. But the program helps finance the overall health care system, including nursing homes and hospitals.
Republicans highlight the law's tightened work requirements for Medicaid enrollees. They argue it's a popular provision that will strengthen the program.
'I voted for this bill because it does preserve the Medicaid program for its intended recipients — children, pregnant women, the disabled, and elderly,' Valadao said. 'I know how important the program is for my constituents.'
Republicans hope voter
s see lower taxes
The law includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. It makes permanent existing rates and brackets approved during Trump's first term. Republicans and their allies have hammered vulnerable Democrats for 'raising costs' on American households by opposing the bill.
GOP campaign aides point to the popularity of individual provisions: boosting the $2,000 child tax credit to $2,200 (some families at lower income levels would not get the full credit), new deductions on tip and overtime income and auto loans; and a new deduction for older adults earning less than $75,000 a year.
'Everyone will have more take home pay. They'll have more jobs and opportunity,' Johnson said in a Fox News Sunday interview. 'The economy will be doing better and we'll be able to point to that as the obvious result of what we did.'
Democrats note that the biggest beneficiaries of Trump's tax code are wealthy Americans and corporations. Pairing that with safety net cuts, Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz concluded, 'The cruelty is the point.'
Immigration, meanwhile, was Trump's strongest issue in 2024. NRCC aides say that will continue with the new law's investments in immigration enforcement. Democrats believe the Trump administration has overplayed its hand with its push for mass deportation.
Playing the Trump card
The president is a titanic variable.
Democrats point to 2018, when they notched a 40-seat net gain in House seats to take control away from the GOP. This year, Democrats have enjoyed a double-digit swing in special elections around the country when compared to 2024 presidential results. Similar trends emerged in 2017 after Trump's 2016 victory. Democrats say that reflects voter discontent with Trump once he's actually in charge.
Republicans answer that Trump's job approval remains higher at this point than in 2017. But the GOP's effort is further complicated by ongoing realignments: Since Trump's emergence, Democrats have gained affluent white voters -– like those in suburban swing districts -– while Trump has drawn more working-class voters across racial and ethnic groups. But Republicans face a stiffer challenge of replicating Trump's coalition in a midterm election without him on the ballot.
Jeffries said he's determined not to let that happen.
'We're going to do everything we can until we end this national nightmare.'
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Miami Herald
25 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
There's hope again for Pennsylvanians who want recreational marijuana legalized in the state. Maybe
HARRISBURG - Recreational marijuana is back on the table for state lawmakers. But it's still a long way away from being legally sold in Pennsylvania. Adult-use cannabis came the closest it's ever gotten to being legalized in Pennsylvania in May, after the state House passed a proposal to allow state-owned stores to run a burgeoning legal marijuana market that nearby states have said has brought in tens of millions of dollars in additional revenue each year. But a state Senate committee quickly killed the bill, citing opposition from both Democrats and Republicans to the state-store model. Now, lawmakers are trying a different approach. State Sens. Dan Laughlin, R-Erie, and Sharif Street, D-Philadelphia, introduced their own proposal Thursday to legalize recreational marijuana by relying on current medical marijuana retailers to kick off the expansion of the market, while setting aside 15 licenses for small businesses to try to get a piece. The two lawmakers have worked on adult-use cannabis legislation in the past, the culmination of which came together in the bill introduced this week that Laughlin said was "years in the making." Under their bill, anyone in Pennsylvania who is 21 or older would be allowed to possess, consume, purchase, or transport adult-use cannabis. Senate Republicans have broadly opposed legalizing recreational marijuana, though Laughlin has remained a supporter for years. And support appears to be growing, Street said, noting that the bill has bipartisan support in the House and Senate. A similar bill will be introduced in the state House in the coming weeks, said Street, who last week launched his campaign for Congress. "There is legitimate representation and input from all four caucuses in the construction of this bill, and I think that's important to ultimately getting a bill that can get to the governor's desk," Street said. Under the bill, legalization of recreational marijuana would be monitored by a new, seven-member oversight panel of political appointees, titled the Cannabis Control Board, to be led by an executive director and chief medical officer. It would also move the Department of Health's current purview of the state's medical marijuana program to the new board. Senate Bill 120 also would allow nonviolent marijuana offenses to be expunged from a person's record, as well as try to target the benefits of the new industry to "disproportionately impacted areas" by the criminalization of marijuana. Among the other proposals in the 181-page bill introduced Thursday: -Edible forms of marijuana would be allowed to be sold in retail stores, which are currently unregulated in Pennsylvania. -Residents could have two mature marijuana plants at their homes. -Marijuana usage would be banned from all public places, including sidewalks and alleys. -Possession would be limited to 30 grams of cannabis flower, 1,000 milligrams of edible THC, or 5 grams of cannabis concentrate. -The proposal also suggests additional fixes to the state's medical marijuana law, including how employers should handle medical marijuana users in the workplace. Under the legislation, employers cannot fire or refuse to hire someone because they have a medical marijuana card, but can fire them if they are not doing their job properly due to their marijuana usage. They can also drug test if it is seen as necessary for "safety-sensitive positions." Laughlin said in an email that there is "no timetable" on when he will call up the bill for a vote. As the chair of the Law and Justice Committee, he previously fast-tracked the House recreational marijuana bill for a vote, where it ultimately failed to pass the committee and will not be reconsidered. Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman, R-Indiana, threw cold water on any hopes that recreational marijuana could be legalized as part of this year's budget, which Gov. Josh Shapiro has repeatedly proposed as a new source of state revenue. Pennsylvania's state budget was due by the start of this fiscal year, and is now nearly two weeks late, with no budget deal in sight. In a statement, Pittman said he does not "see a prevailing view for legalization of recreational marijuana within our caucus as part of the current budget." Still, Street said he remains optimistic it could be part of this year's budget, or next year's. He pointed out that the state would receive approximately 25% of the funds generated by the licensing and sale of marijuana, which he said could help fund Pennsylvania's mass transit systems, as SEPTA and other agencies face a fiscal crisis. "Realistically, we need more revenue, and this is a good alternative," Street added, in reference to the state's $5.5 billion budget gap. Even boxing champion Mike Tyson, who in April was named CEO of a Las Vegas-based cannabis company, chimed in to voice his support of the bipartisan effort to legalize recreational marijuana. "Encouraging to see the PA GOP introduce a rec bill today," Tyson wrote on X Thursday. "This bill would ensure that PA residents have access to safe, tested cannabis as opposed to the unsafe, untaxed pesticide laden stuff the illicit cartel operators are selling." The Laughlin-Street proposal would also allow the behemoth multistate operators that control much of Pennsylvania's medical marijuana market to continue to do so, though the legislation would limit the number of storefronts a single company can have to 24. The medical marijuana industry broadly praised the bill on Thursday as one "poised to create thousands of jobs" that "ensures equitable access," according to a news release from the Pennsylvania Cannabis Coalition. Meanwhile, opponents of adult-use cannabis quickly rejected it. "Lawmakers should prioritize the public health and safety of Pennsylvania families, not hand over our children and neighborhoods to the marijuana lobby," said Dan Bartkowiak, chief strategy officer at the ultraconservative Pennsylvania Family Council, in a news release. Laughlin can call up the bill for a vote in his committee at any time, though sweeping policy changes or new revenue generators are usually negotiated as part of a final budget deal, Street said. _____ Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.


New York Post
25 minutes ago
- New York Post
Tucker Carlson draws lefty acclaim for blasting Republicans: ‘I'm becoming a … fan'
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Miami Herald
25 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
Trump Gets ‘Ratioed' on Truth Social for First Time Amid Epstein Backlash
President Donald Trump's weekend post defending Attorney General Pam Bondi's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files has triggered an unprecedented backlash, marking the first time the Republican has been "ratioed" on his own social media platform, Truth Social. The term "ratioed" refers to when a social media post receives more replies than likes or shares, often signaling more disagreement or criticism than support. In his Saturday evening post, Trump lashed out at those criticizing Bondi, calling her performance "FANTASTIC" and dismissing the ongoing interest in Epstein as a waste of time. "We're on one Team, MAGA, and I don't like what's happening," the president wrote. "Let's not waste Time and Energy on Jeffrey Epstein, somebody that nobody cares about." The post—lengthy, defensive, and directed at his own base—appears to have backfired. According to public engagement data archived from Truth Social, the post has garnered more than 36,000 replies, compared with nearly 11,000 re-truths (the platform's term for shares) and 32,000 likes as of 10:45 a.m. ET Sunday. The backlash on Truth Social reflects growing internal division among MAGA supporters, many of whom have spent months anticipating revelations from the so-called "Epstein Files." Unlike mainstream social media platforms, Truth Social was designed as a haven for Trump and his supporters, where engagement overwhelmingly leans positive. The internal rift appears to stem from growing frustration over unfulfilled promises related to the Epstein case. Trump and several of his allies had long suggested that secret documents, including a so-called "client list," would be released under his administration. Bondi had previously claimed to possess such a list. But last week, the Justice Department announced that no list exists and reaffirmed that Epstein acted alone, dying by suicide in jail in 2019. The anticlimactic conclusion and the administration's refusal to release further files sparked fury from parts of Trump's base, especially activists and influencers who had built expectations around broader revelations. At the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit in Tampa this weekend, chants calling for Bondi's resignation could be heard. Trump's post defending her appeared to be a direct response to that dissent, but it only fueled it further. A user called Mother Rosie wrote: "This statement breaks my heart, Mr. President. I have four daughters, and live in Texas, where families lost little children. I can't even begin to comprehend the flipped narrative that 'it was so long ago' 'why are we still talking about this' and 'nobody should care.' These victims were some ones daughters, sisters, nieces, granddaughter. Someone's child. Please reconsider, sir. I voted for everything you are doing! Accountability was not something negotiable." Another woman, Crissy, who can be seen wearing a Trump-supporting beanie in her profile picture, said: "We want the ELITE PEDOS exposed! You promised us that. Pam promised us that. Kash promised us that. Now it's OUR fault bc we want that promise fulfilled and call Pam out every time she lies? What else has she lied to us about?" A third user, Dewayne Sykes, said: "This is going to cost you so many supporters. I being one of them." There will still some people speaking out in support of Trump in the comments, including from Navy veteran known as Robby F, who said: "We all want to know. But President Trump only has the evidence that these criminals left for him to find. If he gets his hands on anything that's useful, we will know." The data comes from an open-source GitHub repository which scrapes and stores all of Trump's Truth Social posts along with public metrics including reply count, like count, and re-truths. Using this dataset—which includes over 1,000 posts since 2022—Newsweek applied a filter to identify any posts where the number of replies exceeded both likes and shares. Only one post met that condition: the July 12, 2025 post defending Pam Bondi. Other posts in the archive occasionally drew large reply volumes, but in every case until now, likes or re-truths outnumbered them. This post represents the first—and so far only—time Trump was publicly rebuked by more of his own followers than supported him. FBI Director Kash Patel wrote on X on Saturday afternoon: "The conspiracy theories just aren't true, never have been. It's an honor to serve the President of the United States @realDonaldTrump—and I'll continue to do so for as long as he calls on me." Far-right political activist Laura Loomer on Saturday wrote on X: "President Trump says he thinks Blondi [sic] is 'doing a Fantastic job' as AG in a post he posted on Truth Social today...." Charlie Kirk, conservative founder and president of Turning Point USA, wrote on X: "President Trump on the Epstein Files, says he supports Pam Bondi at AG, the files are untrustworthy and created by Comey and Brennan. He wants his Justice Department focused on the voter fraud, the rigged election, ActBlue, and arresting thugs and criminals." While Trump used his Truth Social post to try shift focus away from the Epstein controversy, his followers seem unconvinced. The administration now faces the challenge of reuniting a fractured base ahead of the 2026 midterms elections. 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