Donald Trump's Odds of Completing Presidency Fall Amid Epstein Uproar
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The odds of President Trump completing his second White House term have fallen dramatically as a result of public backlash over his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case over the past month, according to a leading bookmaker.
Star Sports was offering odds of 8/15 (65.2 percent) on Trump serving a full second term on Thursday, down from 2/5 (71.4 percent) one month earlier.
Newsweek contacted the White House for comment on Friday via email outside of regular office hours.
Why It Matters
President Trump has been under pressure since July 6 when the Department of Justice (DOJ) and FBI released a joint statement insisting that convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein had "no incriminating 'client list'" and reiterated that he died by suicide in his jail cell in August 2019.
The announcement angered some campaigners, including members of Trump's MAGA base, who believe the state is covering up Epstein's links to rich and powerful individuals.
On Wednesday The Wall Street Journal reported Trump had been told by Attorney General Pam Bondi in May that his name appeared "multiple times" in the so-called Epstein files. White House communications director Steven Cheung dismissed this allegation as "another fake news story."
What To Know
On Thursday Star Sports told Newsweek it was offering odds of 8/15 (65.2 percent) on Trump completing his second term as president compared to 20/1 (71.4 percent) a month earlier.
Over the same period the odds Star Sports offered on Trump leaving the White House at some point this year increased from 20/1 (4.8 percent) to 8/1 (11.1 percent).
Speaking to Newsweek, Star Sports political betting analyst William Kedjanyi attributed this directly to "the Jeffrey Epstein scandal" which he said was "for the first time" threatening Trump's "relationship with the GOP voting base and the wider MAGA Trump sphere."
President Donald Trump speaking at an AI summit hosted by All‑In Podcast and Hill & Valley Forum at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium on July 23, 2025 in Washington, D.C.
President Donald Trump speaking at an AI summit hosted by All‑In Podcast and Hill & Valley Forum at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium on July 23, 2025 in Washington, D.C.
Chip Somodevilla/GETTY
During the 2024 presidential election campaign Trump said he would have "no problem" publishing details of those affiliated with Epstein if returned to the White House during an interview with podcaster Lex Friedman.
However, after the joint DOJ and FBI memo was released on July 6, Trump started referring to the "Jeffrey Epstein Hoax" which he claimed had been created by Democrats.
Following outrage from a section of his MAGA base, Trump later added: "Based on the ridiculous amount of publicity given to Jeffrey Epstein, I have asked Attorney General Pam Bondi to produce any and all pertinent Grand Jury testimony, subject to Court approval."
On Tuesday, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson announced he was adjourning the lower chamber a day early until September in a move critics said was designed to block a vote on the release of the so-called Epstein files.
What People Are Saying
Discussing the latest odds with Newsweek, Kedjanyi said: "President Donald Trump has been cut with Star Sports to leave office this year. He is 8/1 to exit the White House, from 20/1 just a month ago. And he's now lengthened to 8/15 to see out his Presidency and serve a full second term, from 2/5.
"That's a fairly big shift, considering how dominant Trump was in the U.S. election last year. Trump has for years enjoyed robust support from the Republican Party, with a base loyal to him like they have been to almost no other politician in American history."
Kedjanyi continued: "Trump has long argued for releasing the Epstein files—even holding an event with online influencers at the White House celebrating the release of some of these files—and yet has pushed back very strongly on any more Epstein files being released. Trump has also been subject of reporting from the Wall Street Journal and New York Times.
"A lot of Trump's online followers are very disappointed at the lack of any movement and are upset at the way Trump has dismissed questions about Epstein, plus the fact speaker Mike Johnson shut down the house. There are frustrations that Trump, having been one of the most vocal on this issue, has turned full circle against it. Indeed, directly criticizing some in his base with big online followings who have been making a lot of noise about it. Where this leads, and how bad things may turn out for Trump, remains to be seen."
What Happens Next
Going forward Trump is likely to face fresh pressure from a section of his MAGA base to release documents related to the Epstein case while Democrats could attempt to force his hand after Congress returned from its summer recess.
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