CNBC Daily Open: That's not how revisions to jobs numbers work

CNBC

9 hours ago

After U.S. jobs figures for May and June were revised significantly downward by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — slashing a combined 258,000 from previous figures — President Donald Trump, imputing political bias and data manipulation to BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, revised her employment status to "terminated."
Government officials from both sides of the political aisle had plenty to say about that.
"Bottom line, Trump wants to cook the books," said Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Rand Paul told NBC News that "you can't really make the numbers different or better by firing the people doing the counting."
The move, indeed, does have a whiff of the Chinese government, in August 2023, stopping the release of youth unemployment rates because they were spiking to record highs. (Beijing resumed disseminating the data in January 2024.)
A falling tree makes a sound, regardless of whether there's anyone around to hear it. Terminating the person who reports that noise won't suck sound waves back into a vacuum either.
Markets, too, were vocal in their response to Trump's firing of McEntarfer as well as the dismal jobs report. On Friday, the three major U.S. indexes had their worst day in months, a sharp turn from the week prior, which saw consecutive days of record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
This changes the calculus. With new tariffs due to take effect Aug. 7 — which could further slow hiring in the U.S. because of increased costs and uncertainties for companies — both the economy and markets might weaken further. Then it becomes a matter of whether the "TACO trade" — "Trump Always Chickens Out" — will, in the words of The Terminator, be back.Cracks appear in the U.S. jobs market. Nonfarm payrolls in July grew 73,000, lower than the Dow Jones estimate of a 100,000 gain. Unemployment edged up 10 basis points to 4.2%. June and May's jobs numbers were revised dramatically lower.
Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after jobs report. In a Truth Social post, the U.S. president accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of being a political appointee who "faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election" and providing inaccurate data.
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