Checking out early: who is going to die in this season of The White Lotus?

The Guardian

12-03-2025

After a characteristically slow start, we are now halfway through this year's season of The White Lotus. From what we know of the last two seasons, this means that things are about to get very crazy very quickly. To use season one as a way marker, we are now approximately the runtime of The Brutalist away from watching someone perform the equivalent of a suitcase poop.
More than previous runs, however, a number of mysteries still hang over almost every White Lotus character this year. We know that there's a shooting. We know that there's a body. At this point, almost every character could be either one of them. It's time to theorise wildly.
Poor Belinda. In season one she had her dreams snatched away by Jennifer Coolidge's obliviously privileged whims, and now her holiday of a lifetime has turned into a full-blown detective novel. She's on to Greg/Gary, and they're both trapped in a death spiral of furiously Googling each other. Greg is quickly emerging as the throughline to all three seasons here, and he has a good line in outright menace. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he gets to Belinda before she can alert the authorities, which would be especially tragic since her son will arrive at the resort just as the shooting starts. Then again, Natasha Rothwell is the MVP of the entire White Lotus. Plus, as anyone who has seen Sonic the Hedgehog 2 will attest, there is nobody better at deranged fury than her. Perhaps Mike White saw this, wanted some of it for himself, and chose to end the season with Belinda on the rampage.
Likelihood: If Mike White has his head screwed on, he'll keep Belinda around for years to come, so let's hope this is slim. 3/10
One's a Trump supporter, one's an alcoholic and none of them are quite as good at hiding their mutual animosity behind masks of rictus joy as they think. This has to end badly. Jaclyn, Laurie and Kate are perhaps the most insufferable characters around this year (which is really saying something) and every passing episode feels more and more like a powder keg waiting to go off. Even rich white woman condescension – the universe's most powerful form of condescension – has a breaking point. More than anything, though, this week's scene of the trio being set upon by dozens of water pistols felt like foreshadowing. Surely they can't survive the finale.
Likelihood: Yes they're awful, but three women squabbling to death isn't really White's style. Chances are he'll just return them safely to their terrible pre-existing lives. 4/10
You cannot call a character Saxon, and have him be this much of a dick, unless there's going to be a hefty payoff down the line. Saxon is an archetype that The White Lotus has returned to again and again – too arrogant, too entitled, too macho, too altogether American – and this never ends well. If we're talking potential murderers, then it's hard to look beyond the man who openly masturbated in full view of his sexually confused brother. Plus, remember how angrily he reacted when he couldn't find a blender in his room? Imagine how nuts he'll go when he realises that his dad is broke. Similarly, if you had to shoot anyone on this show, chances are it'd also be Saxon, because of course you would.
Likelihood: White does like to punish this specific type of character – in season one the most entitled white guy accidentally murdered someone, and in the second his wife started an affair with Will Sharpe – so Saxon won't leave the series unharmed. But a gun rampage does seem a little on the nose. 6/10
Similarly, you don't cast an actor like Walton Goggins unless you have something particularly meaty for him to chew on. So far his character Rick has been wound tighter than everyone else put together, angrily refusing to tell anyone anything about himself, unless it has something to do with his open hostility for the husband of the resort's owner and/or is an opportunity for him to be irresponsible with snakes. At times, Rick feels like he's been beamed in from another (potentially worse) project; maybe a Jason Statham potboiler about a taciturn man hellbent on revenge for the death of his father. This season is still playing its cards close to its chest, but this one seems destined for bloodshed.
Likelihood: High. However, The White Lotus isn't the sort of show that likes to telegraph its endings this early and this clearly, so let's see. 7/10
The first season of The White Lotus was the story of a very together man who elaborately unspooled and wound up dead. So far, Tim is following this plot beat for beat. We're only four episodes in, and he's gone from uptight businessman to a broke, fitfully naked crook who is off his beans on his wife's lorazepam, apparently suicidal and potentially now in possession of a stolen gun. How much crazier is his storyline going to get before he definitely ends up as a corpse? Here's hoping a lot.
Likelihood: Come on, this is The White Lotus by numbers. 9/10