‘I can't go back': Netanyahu's prolonged war risks mutiny in the ranks

The Age

5 hours ago

Sentenced to 25 days in jail by Israel for refusing to serve, Feiner is believed to be part of a growing wave of young Israeli reservists who feel they can no longer participate in their country's war in Gaza.
The majority are not showing up to call-ups, either 'forgetting' to check their emails or pleading medical or family emergencies. Feiner believes the images of starving children inside Gaza will mean fewer soldiers will turn up.
Immense global pressure has been building on Israel over the dire humanitarian conditions inside the strip, with aid agencies warning of mass malnutrition and widespread hunger. France on Thursday said it would move to recognise Palestine as a state. On Sunday, the IDF said it was introducing a 'tactical pause' in fighting in some areas of Gaza.
Feiner's opinion on the futility of the conflict appears to be shared by a rising number of serving and retired senior officers who are turning against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's war.
General Assaf Orion, the former head of strategic planning at the IDF, said while there were clear strategic goals in the Israel campaigns against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, there was no longer any clear military imperative for the continuation of military operations in Gaza.
He told London's Telegraph: 'In Gaza, I suspect that the strategic train of ends, ways and means was kidnapped by ulterior motives.
'I think the main reason for a prolonged war in Gaza is political expediency.'
Eran Etzion, a former deputy head of Israel's national security council, was even more blunt.
'By now it has long been clear to most Israelis that the main reason the Gaza campaign lingers on is because of Netanyahu's political, personal and judicial interests, and he needs the war to go on in order to sustain and even enhance his grip on power,' Etzion said.
Many believe Netanyahu fears his government would collapse if the war ended, as ultra-nationalist parties in his coalition would abandon him.
'That's the main reason. It has nothing to do with Hamas and everything to do with Netanyahu,' Etzion said.
If even some of the spate of leaks from Israel's security cabinet are to be believed, the scepticism is not confined to retired generals.
Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, the IDF's chief of staff, is said to have argued that there is little more to be gained by continuing the campaign – particularly without risking the lives of the approximately 20 remaining living hostages who were abducted by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
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Although degraded into a series of, in effect, independent guerrilla units, Hamas continues to fight amid the rubble, sending a stream of IDF body bags back to Israel.
Netanyahu insists that Hamas must not just be broken as a military and governing force, but eradicated entirely, and also argues the best way to secure a hostage deal is to fight even harder.
Israel's negotiating team returned home from Doha empty-handed at the weekend, amid widespread pessimism that a deal will be agreed any time soon.
The Jewish state's reputation on the international stage is in crisis, with traditional allies such as Britain, France, Canada and Australia queuing up to condemn the escalating reports of starvation.
Professional servants of democratically elected leaders, such as Zamir and those under him, are caught in the middle.
This was perhaps best demonstrated this month by Zamir's opposition to a scheme of Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz to order the entire civilian population of Gaza into a so-called 'humanitarian city' built on the ruins of the southern city of Rafah.
The military chief was reportedly anxious to protect his officers from potential complicity in a war crime, amid outrage that the zone – described by former prime minister Ehud Olmert as resembling a 'concentration camp' – could be a precursor to forced population transfer.
It would also put his troops, who would ultimately police the perimeter and facilitate the entry of aid, under significant practical pressure.
The military was further worried that Hamas would interpret the humanitarian city as a signal that Israel wanted to restart fighting after the proposed initial 60-day ceasefire, thus threatening a potential deal on the hostages.
The IDF leadership earned Netanyahu's ire by reporting the project to build a city on Rafah's outskirts could take a year and cost $US4 billion ($6 billion).
While the Israeli prime minister demanded a 'shorter, cheaper, more practical' plan, it is not clear whether the initiative will ever take place.
The scheme may have been too much for Israeli generals who are already deeply unhappy about the position their troops have been placed in under the new US-backed aid system.
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The United Nations accuses the IDF of killing more than 1000 civilians near the new aid distribution sites in Gaza.
According to multiple videos and eyewitness testimony, crowd flow in and near these sites is extremely poor, and Israeli soldiers, who provide an outer ring of security for the American contractors, open fire if Palestinians come too close.
In one heated security cabinet exchange, Zamir reportedly forced an ultra-nationalist minister to watch a video of an incident showing how close aid seekers came to his soldiers.
The IDF has now captured 75 per cent of the Gaza Strip – the goal when it began Operation Gideon's Chariot, which started in May.
Last week, it pushed into the town of Deir Al-Balah, the first time it is thought Israeli troops have deliberately sought to seize an area where intelligence indicated there is a high likelihood that hostages are being held.
Netanyahu and his allies argue that leaving even remnants of Hamas intact in the strip would eventually precipitate another October 7-style massacre.
They have so far rejected Arab proposals for an interim government to administer the enclave in the event of a permanent ceasefire.
'We are past the culmination point'
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Orion, the former head of strategic planning at the IDF, said: 'The Gaza war is a long way past its culmination point.
'Every military operation, like many human endeavours, has the rule of diminishing returns.
'At some point, great successes meet growing resistance and lose their efficiency. The costs rise and the benefits are lower. In Gaza, we are way past that point.'
Although the true figures are closely guarded, some campaign groups and politicians believe the rate of attendance among Israeli reservists could be as low as 60 per cent.
The majority of refusals are so-called 'grey refusals', who are people who plead medical problems, family issues or who simply go abroad during the call-up window and 'forget' to check their emails.
'Every military operation, like many human endeavours, has the rule of diminishing returns.'
General Assaf Orion, former head of strategic planning at the IDF
Refusals on explicit political grounds are rarer but increasing, reflected in the growing number of public letters signed by reservists denouncing Netanyahu's conduct of the war, and subsequent reprimands and dismissals.
Accounts have emerged of officers frantically reaching out to reservists on social media, begging them to turn up, because their ranks are so depleted.
At the same time, the acrimonious issue of Haredi conscription rumbles on, with Netanyahu expected to give in on promises to force ultra-orthodox Jewish young men to turn up for military service.
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Feiner's prison sentence was considered a relatively harsh penalty for refusal, given the maximum is 30 days. But he served only one night, as the prison was largely evacuated when Iran started firing ballistic missiles at Israel in June.
Waiting to see if he will be recalled to jail, he believes the pictures and videos of what's happening in Gaza will further decrease the rate of call-up response.
'There are always a lot of people who are not sure if they are willing to go, and every little thing can affect them,' he said.