
Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions
Season series: Mariners 1-0
The Mariners shut out the Pirates 6-0 Friday night, cashing as -171 home favorites with the Under 7 hitting. SP Bryan Woo was dominant, tossing 6 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts. Seattle launched 4 home runs, including 2 from C Cal Raleigh, who leads the MLB with 35 homers on the season.
The Pirates saw their 6-game win streak snapped Friday, managing just 5 hits. 2B Nick Gonzales accounted for 3 of those hits, but the offense struck out 12 times. Starter Bailey Falter took the loss (5 2/3 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 3 H, 4 K, 3 HR) as Pittsburgh's bats went quiet in Seattle.
Pirates at Mariners projected starters
RHP Mike Burrows vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Burrows (1-2, 4.15 ERA) is making his ninth appearance and eighth start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 34 2/3 innings.
Castillo (4-5, 3.55 ERA) is making his 18th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 96 1/3 innings.
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Pirates at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Pirates at Mariners picks and predictions
Mariners 6, Pirates 3
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Mariners (-175) to win Saturday but I'll take the plus-odds on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET MARINERS -1.5 (+125).
Pittsburgh came into Friday night riding a 6-game win streak, but the Mariners quickly put an end to that momentum with a dominant shutout victory. While another shutout might be a stretch, I like Seattle to win comfortably again on Saturday evening. This sets up perfectly for Castillo to grab his first win since May 19. He's been outstanding at home this season, posting a 2.60 ERA at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners have won 7 of the last 10 matchups against the Pirates, with all 7 victories coming by at least 2 runs.
Pittsburgh continues to struggle in interleague play (7-15) and has been brutal on the road, going just 12-30. A big reason is their lack of production away from home—they're hitting just .212 on the road, the second-worst mark in MLB. With a pitching edge, home-field advantage, and historical matchup success, don't overthink it. Take the Mariners on the run line at plus-odds this Fourth of July weekend.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7 (-125).
This one's a bit of a gut call, but I'm leaning toward the Over in Saturday's matchup. The total is set low, and while Castillo has been solid at home, he's still allowed 5 earned runs over his last 12 innings there. The Over has hit in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams, as well as 4 of Castillo's last 5 starts and 3 of Burrows' last 4. Expect some runs in this one.
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