ISIS remains contained: No sign of strategic revival in Iraq and Syria

Shafaq News

5 days ago

Shafaq News
Despite its territorial defeat in Iraq and later in Syria, ISIS continues to exploit security vacuums and volatile geographies to stage sporadic attacks, particularly across remote border regions and rugged terrains. While the organization no longer wields the influence it once held during its peak in 2014–2017, recent developments suggest it is actively repositioning itself for relevance rather than resurgence.
Strategic Shift and Tactical Resurgence
Compared to its peak in mid-2014—when ISIS captured large parts of Nineveh, Saladin, Al-Anbar, and portions of Diyala and Kirkuk—the group's current capabilities are considerably reduced. Iraq declared victory over ISIS in late 2017, reclaiming nearly one-third of its territory once held by the group.
In Syria, the group's territorial hold collapsed in March 2019 after the fall of Baghouz Fawqani, following a prolonged battle with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.
While territorial control may have ended, ISIS's threat has morphed into a covert, transnational challenge driven by decentralized cells and ideological offshoots. Over the past three years, ISIS has adjusted its tactics to capitalize on emerging regional shifts, particularly the political and military upheavals in Syria. A noticeable uptick in attacks has been recorded, underscored by the suicide bombing that targeted Mar Elias Church in Damascus's al-Dweila area.
In 2024 alone, ISIS conducted 491 operations in Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which noted that the group took advantage of persistent instability to regroup.
The Soufan Center corroborated this trend, estimating that ISIS attacks tripled in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Meanwhile, a statement from US Central Command (CENTCOM) in July confirmed ISIS had carried out 153 attacks across Iraq and Syria in the first half of 2024 alone, an alarming increase reflecting what CENTCOM described as the group's attempt to "reshape itself after years of diminished capability."
As 2025 reaches its midpoint, ISIS is once again activating its sleeper cells along the porous Iraqi-Syrian border. However, this activity remains limited in scale and lacks the broader operational momentum necessary for a major comeback.
According to multiple security studies, ISIS's operational core has shifted, with a greater focus on Africa and parts of Asia, rather than Iraq or Syria. Notably, Wilayat Khorasan, the ISIS branch based in Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan, has emerged as its most lethal wing.
The group has been widely blamed for recent high-casualty attacks in Moscow and Kerman, Iran. In Africa, ISIS maintains five active branches in regions including the Lake Chad Basin, northern Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Iraq's Containment
The containment of ISIS activity owes much to sustained counterterrorism efforts by Iraqi security forces, Kurdish Peshmerga units, and Global Coalition partners. In June alone, Iraqi and coalition forces conducted more than seven targeted operations—both aerial and ground-based—against ISIS cells in northern Iraq.
Ali Neama al-Bandawi, a member of Iraq's Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, told Shafaq News that ISIS 'no longer poses a systemic threat,' emphasizing that 'only scattered individuals and small cells remain.'
He noted effective coordination between Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga in disputed areas as a key factor preventing any significant ISIS resurgence.
Security expert Mukhlid Hazem al-Darib told Shafaq News that 'the Iraqi-Syrian border is secured by a three-layer surveillance system, including aerial monitoring and real-time tracking.' While acknowledging that 'no system is foolproof,' al-Darib expressed confidence in Iraq's ability to thwart infiltration attempts, citing both the physical security measures and 'societal rejection' of extremist actors.
Political analyst Mujashaa al-Tamimi echoed this assessment. Speaking to Shafaq News, he stressed that 'Iraq today is not the same as during the previous phase of security collapse,' citing a more advanced intelligence infrastructure and 'real-time border control.'
Al-Tamimi also pointed to the technical and intelligence support provided by the US-led coalition, which enables preemptive action against suspected ISIS movements. 'The environment now is far more resilient and responsive to emerging threats,' al-Tamimi concluded, making a wide-scale comeback by ISIS sleeper cells 'unlikely.'
Internal Barriers to Revival
Political analyst Mohammed Nanaa emphasized that ISIS today faces significant obstacles in rebuilding its networks inside Iraq. 'Unlike before, the group can no longer recruit locals easily,' he said, attributing this shift to the erosion of ISIS's social appeal and the improved awareness among communities previously targeted by its propaganda.
Nanaa further argued that the broader regional context is increasingly hostile to any renewed insurgency. 'The prevailing climate across the region favors peace and investment, not conflict,' he noted, adding that both regional and international stakeholders are keen to prevent any resurgence of violence that could derail economic and geopolitical recalibrations underway.
The group's lack of broad recruitment capabilities, improved counterterrorism coordination, and societal resistance, 'all suggest that Iraq is unlikely to return to the conditions that enabled ISIS's rise in 2014,' Nanaa concluded.