In Bringing Focus Back to Himanta Biswa Sarma's 'Corruption,' Rahul Gandhi Has Shaken Up Assam's Politics
In the state which is set for the assembly polls early next year, the fire stoked by the opposition leader has refused to die down.
'Your chief minister thinks of himself as the king of Assam,' Gandhi had told state Congress workers while addressing them in a meeting held at Chaygaon, about 40 kilometres from the capital city of Guwahati.
'And he is busy, round the clock, trying to give away your earnings and land to Adani and Ambani [industrialists Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani are close to fellow Gujarati and prime minister, Narendra Modi]. But if you listen to and hear him [Sarma] closely, you will notice a fear in his voice.," Gandhi said.
With his party's national president Mallikarjun Kharge and the newly annointed state chief Gaurav Gogoi at the dais, Gandhi then added, 'He's aware that one day the lions of Congress will catch him and put him in prison. He knows that one day he will have to give details of the corruption indulged in by him and his family. Your chief minister will be in jail after some time and neither Modi, nor Amit Shah will be able to save him. This will be done by the people."
Sarma has, since then, been giving out statements in response – both to the local press and on social media. However, the more he speaks in his own defence, the more he appears to be revealing his party's strategy for the crucial 2026 polls.
Surrounded by a brigade of yes-men – most formerly of Congress, Sarma's former party – the chief minister has been displaying what can at best be called a confrontational attitude towards his former boss. Sarma's ostensible restlessness leaves one to wonder if Gandhi did hit the nail on the head, after all, when he said, 'You will notice a fear in his voice.'
Fear
In any election season, the 'fear' that Gandhi had referred to is real.
In the last five years, there have been a number of allegations of corruption and lang-grabbing related to Sarma's immediate family. There have also been charges of nepotism by Sarma, some of which are backed by information given by state government departments in reply to Right to Information applications to reporters.
In recent times, the allegations of corruption have only gained ground. They now include ministers whose salience in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all thanks to Sarma being at the top post.
A seasoned politician like Sarma is well aware that in a poll-bound state, allegations of wrongdoing with public funds can ignite a fire which can prove disastrous to not only his carefully-crafted reputation and persona within the state and national BJP, but also his hopes of continuing as chief minister after 2026.
Already, the growing arrogance and pomposity of some of the ministers seen as close to him is a part of conversations in many circles, particularly in Upper Assam where the majority of assembly segments are located. If that factor collides with that of allegations of corruption against his government, now amplified by Gandhi, Sarma knows steering a win for the BJP in 2026 would be no cakewalk.
An added factor for the BJP in the 2026 elections is also the recent elevation of Gaurav Gogoi as the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) chief. This has added a new dimension to Assam's public-facing political sphere.
Gogoi's his public demeanour is diametrically opposite to that of Sarma's in-your-face aggressiveness — a factor which local political observers think played a role in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Gogoi had come up trumps even though the Narendra Modi government's delimitation exercise in the state ensured that his former parliamentary constituency no longer existed. Gogoi's snatching of the the Jorhat parliamentary constituency from the BJP must have been embarrassing for Sarma and his cohort.
Sarma and the threat of 'Pakistan'
Watching Sarma publicly target Gogoi after the latter's significant electoral win made it clear that the result had unsettled him. Sarma appeared deeply concerned that his meticulously cultivated image among Assam's voters – as their 'Mama,' a benefactor, a Bahubali-style strongman, even a Robin Hood – might no longer be enough to secure a decisive victory in 2026.
Such a win is critical for Sarma to retain his position in the party which will otherwise be only too happy to pull the rug from beneath his feet – as it did with his predecessor, Sarbananda Sonowal, whom Modi and Amit Shah had asked to step aside after the 2021 elections to make way for Sarma. This time, Sonowal is not only a possible contender for Sarma's seat, but so is Assam BJP president and Rajya Sabha MP Dilip Saikia.
Gogoi has kept the spotlight on an issue with resonance in Upper Assam: allegations of land grabbing by Sarma's family, particularly against his wife, Riniki Bhuyan Sarma. In response, the BJP chief minister introduced a new angle to Assam's political discourse: the 'Pakistan factor'. This was clearly a novelty in a state where many a politician had made careers by milking the 'Bangladeshi' factor.
Sarma accused Gogoi of 'clandestinely' visiting Pakistan and alleged that Gogoi's British wife was gathering information for Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency. He labeled both her and their minor child 'foreigners,' without presenting any evidence. The Assam Police, which reports directly to Sarma, was tasked with forming a special investigation team to probe these supposed 'Pakistan' connections. Sarma has claimed that he will reveal damning details about the Gogoi family's Pakistan links in September.
Meanwhile, Gogoi's refusal to enter into a verbal duel with Sarma on the matter, and instead keeping the focus on allegations of corruption against Sarma's family, seemed to have made Sarma think the 'Pakistan' card will not cut as much ice as it does in the mainland India for his party.
Sarma was soon seen flipping back to playing the 'Bangladeshi' card, which has a far better record of delivering poll results in the state that borders that country. The BJP had seen its ' jati maati bheti ' plank hinged on anti-Bangladeshi sentiments deliver results both in the 2016 and 2021 assembly polls. Cue the orders to activate eviction drives in areas where primarily Muslims of Bengali origin are located. Local media reports are proof that the chief minister led from the front, clearly to appeal to the anti-Bangladeshi sentiments of the majority Assamese non-tribal and tribal voters. To keep the Bengali Hindu vote bank of the BJP in Assam intact, he went about playing that 'Bangladeshi' card carefully, targeted only Muslims among Bengali-origin prople, locally known as Miya, by indirectly referring to their religion.
There is no doubt that these evictions can be politically helpful. If the citizenship of those evicted is doubted, they can be easily deprived of their voting rights. Thereby, their electoral power in the 2026 elections could be neutralised. It has not gone unnoticed by the ruling party that the Bengali-origin Muslims had voted en mass for the Congress in the 2024 parliamentary polls, so much so that the Congress candidate from the Muslim-majority Dhubri constituency had won by the highest number of votes in the country.
After Operation Sindoor, this 'Bangladeshi' factor was further weaponised by the ruling party. A number of people from that community whose citizenship have been under a cloud already due to lack of proper documents, have been picked up and dropped off at the no man's land between India and Bangladesh by the state police. These 'push back' exercises were based on the claim that they had illegally entered India. Sarma has since relentlessly aimed at appealing to the majority community by highlighting that his party's government at the Centre is 'pushing back' 'illegal immigrants'.
Even though some of them have since been brought back as Bangladesh has refused to accept them as their citizens, Sarma's X account bears proof that the exercise continues.
The strategy
While Sarma was in the thick of pushing forward this two-pronged 'Bangladeshi' card in the poll-bound state, Gandhi arrived, bringing the focus back to the allegations of corruption, land-grabbing and nepotism surrounding his government.
Sarma has never been the kind to accept a setback quietly. Political watchers would vouch that he has to not only win a duel, but be seen winning it decisively. First on X and since then through local news media, Sarma has been busy with statements.
In the first 12 hours, Sarma claimed that Congress insiders had expressed the feeling of being hurt at Gandhi's criticism of a fellow Assamese. Then he pivoted, attacking Gandhi personally by pointing out that he was out on bail, and mockingly giving him the burha anguli – a symbolic thumbs down.
Behind that grandstanding though, Sarma's fear of voter attention flipping back to the issue of corruption was palpable. He soon pivoted again, returning to the 'Bangladeshi' issue.
Hours after Gandhi left Assam, the state saw a 19-year-old boy from an evicted family shot dead by police. Instead of mourning the tragedy faced by his family, Sarma, also a father, was seen politicising it instead.
Taking to X on July 17, he said, 'Emboldened by his [Rahul Gandhi's] reckless words, today a violent mob attacked our police and forest personnel while attempting to forcefully encroach upon the Paikan Reserve Forest. In the line of duty, 21 brave police officers and forest guards suffered grievous injuries.' He said that left with no choice, the police had to open fire to restore order, leading to the death of one encroacher.
He added, 'This is the direct legacy of Rahul Gandhi's one-day visit to Assam. His irresponsible rhetoric had directly endangered lives and disrupted peace in the state. The people of Assam will neither forget nor forgive this betrayal.'
Sarma later said at a press meet, 'Yesterday, in Guwahati, Rahul Gandhi and Kharge ji incited land jihadis. Today, these very people began to physically assault Assam Police.'
Till now, 10 persons have been arrested on charge of committing arson.
The chief minister also said that the connection between what Gandhi had said against him and the violence at the eviction site would be analysed by state police, and action might be taken against Gandhi. 'For this, Rahul Gandhi may be accused and arrested.'
In coming times, more drama may unfold on this front in Assam. If it does, this chapter may well be remembered for a chief minister threatening to arrest a leader of the opposition, all in an effort to shift attention away from mounting corruption allegations and retain power in an election where his return to the top post is far from guaranteed by his party's central leadership.
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