Tanzania turns back clock to brutal, repressive Magufuli era as elections loom

Daily Maverick

11 hours ago

President Samia Suluhu Hassan's government is increasingly abusing anti-terrorism legislation to suppress genuine political opposition before the October polls, according to NGO Intelwatch.
The government of Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan 'has begun a systematic, unrelenting and brutal clampdown on critics, opposition leaders, civil society and even foreign activists' ahead of the October 2025 elections.
Hassan's government is also increasingly abusing anti-terrorism legislation to suppress genuine political opposition before the polls, according to a report, Tanzania's Repression of Dissent under the Guise of Counterterrorism by Intelwatch, a South African-based NGO dedicated to strengthening public oversight of state and private intelligence agencies in southern Africa and around the world.
'The human rights situation has regressed to levels reminiscent of the Magufuli era, marked by enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings and systematic repression,' the report says, referring to Hassan's predecessor John Magufuli, who became notorious for his brutal crackdowns on any political dissent.
'The counterterrorism task forces, notorious for the alleged kidnapping and killing of perceived government critics, have resurfaced with full force, targeting opposition figures, activists and journalists,' the report continues.
Tundu Lissu arrest
It cites in particular the arrest on 9 April 2025 of opposition Chadema party leader Tundu Lissu on charges of treason, which carries a potential death penalty.
This was because he vowed that Chadema would boycott and disrupt the elections in the absence of reforms, such as an independent electoral commission to ensure free and fair polls. His arrest almost ensures that the October elections will go ahead without any real opposition to the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the report says.
The report notes that after encouraging signs of political reform after she succeeded Magufuli in 2021, Hassan has reverted to type ahead of the elections, deploying the same methods and colonial-era and anti-terrorism legislation to undermine political freedoms and curtail opposition activities to ensure the CCM maintains its unbroken grip on power since independence.
The report notes that especially after the 9/11 bombings in the US in 2001, Tanzania came under especially US pressure to strengthen its counterterrorism legislation, particularly adding provisions to address money laundering to curtail terrorism financing.
Abuse of legislation
However, it adds that instead of combating terrorism, these tougher measures have been repeatedly used to 'quash political opposition, muzzle independent journalism and target human rights defenders'.
It cites the case of at least 50 leaders of the Association for Islamic Mobilisation and Propagation (Uamsho), a Muslim group advocating for Zanzibar's secession from the union with Tanzania, who were detained for almost nine years from 2012 to 2021.
'Despite their release, it is estimated that at least another 150 clerics are still behind bars', the report says.
The report cites the case of Wilfred Lwakatare, an opposition leader from the main opposition party Chadema, who was arrested in 2013 and fought lengthy court battles before being released.
Chadema leader Freeman Mbowe was arrested in 2021 – under Hassan's presidency – on terrorism charges for allegedly financing terrorist activities with the intent of assassinating government officials. No credible evidence was presented and Hassan had the case dropped after behind-the-scenes negotiations between her and Mbowe.
The report says the abuse of anti-terror legislation took off with President Jakaya Kikwete and peaked under Magufuli, who was elected in 2015 and died in office in 2021, apparently of Covid.
Extrajudicial killings and disappearances spiked under Magufuli. A 'credible' estimate is that security forces killed at least 3,000 people between 2016 and 2020, the report says.
Tanzania plunged in the World Press Freedom Index, from 71 in 2016 to 124 in 2021 (out of 180 countries) after the government introduced stringent regulations curtailing freedom of expression. The police actively monitored internet and social media communications 'to suppress debates and messaging which portrayed Magufuli in an unfavourable light'.
Optimism snuffed out
The report notes that when then vice-president Hassan succeeded Magufuli, there was initial optimism that she might usher in a new era of respect for the rule of law and human rights, particularly concerning counter-terrorism efforts.
She did introduce some political reforms, notably lifting Magufuli's ban on political rallies; ordering the release of prisoners facing money laundering, economic sabotage and terrorism charges; freeing the 36 Uamsho clerics; issuing a stern warning to the police and security agencies against targeting civilians; and appointing a bipartisan task force to propose minimum electoral reforms ahead of the 2025 elections.
However, very little came of these moves and the hopes of reform were dashed when opposition Chadema leader Mbowe was arrested.
As it became clear that the state had no evidence against him, and under mounting domestic and international pressure, Hassan eventually released Mbowe in exchange for 'reconciliation' talks between Chadema and CCM.
Brutality after democracy pretensions abandoned
The Intelwatch report says, 'if any evidence were needed to confirm that President Hassan and her advisers have abandoned all pretensions to democracy and reform, it is the recent wave of attacks on foreign human rights defenders that came to support Lissu ahead of his treason trial'.
It notes that a group of politicians, jurists and human rights activists from the region, including former Kenyan Minister of Justice Martha Karua, 'renowned Kenyan human rights defender' Boniface Mwangia, and Agather Atuhairet, a 'high-profile Ugandan lawyer-activist', were detained at Julius Nyerere International Airport in Dar es Salaam on 18 May 2025.
They were kept in police custody for four days, the report said. Karua and Athuhairet were 'brutally tortured, humiliated and tormented… both … suffered inhuman, degrading and brutal treatment'.
They were allegedly handcuffed and blindfolded, told to strip naked and tortured, and sexually assaulted before being dumped on the Kenyan border, the report said. But the report adds that such cases are not new, as opposition figures have continued to disappear or be murdered under Hassan's rule.
It cites Chadema's secretary, Ally Kibao, who was kidnapped in September 2024 from a bus in broad daylight. His lifeless body, the face burned with acid, was dumped in a forest. In July 2024, 24-year-old artist Shadrack Chaula was sentenced to two years in prison or a fine of $2,000 for drawing and burning a picture of President Hassan.
After paying the fine and securing his release, Chaula 'disappeared less than a month later and has never been seen again'.
State repression
The report says that 'Tanzania's transformation into a surveillance state has been largely facilitated by external actors who have provided sophisticated technological capabilities, training and operational support to the country's security apparatus.'
It cites mainly China, Russia and Israel for supplying such technology, though also mentioning Western countries.
The report concludes that 'the history and evolution of state repression in Tanzania reveals a disconcerting narrative of a democracy in decline — one in which counterterrorism has become a euphemism for authoritarian consolidation.
'Under the guise of ensuring national security, successive leaders have normalised arbitrary arrests and detentions, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, digital surveillance and the silencing of dissent.
'The brief moments of optimism under President Hassan's early presidency, when reformist rhetoric suggested a push towards democratic renewal, have quickly given way to the weaponisation of terrorism legislation against opposition leaders such as Tundu Lissu.
'The brutal treatment of foreign human rights defenders, and the systemic targeting of journalists and activists indicate an intensification of the repressive apparatus honed under President Magufuli.
'Held in such an atmosphere of digital authoritarianism and the attendant fear and repression, the October 2025 elections are unlikely to produce an outcome reflecting the democratic will of Tanzanians.'
Intelwatch urged the international community, regional partners and Tanzanian citizens to address the crisis 'with urgency and resolve' or 'the Tanzanian model will become a blueprint for future repression across Africa'. DM