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Cash flow, return on capital key to identifying wealth creators: Priyankar Sarkar of Square 64

Cash flow, return on capital key to identifying wealth creators: Priyankar Sarkar of Square 64

Economic Times21-07-2025
In the latest edition of ETMarkets PMS Talk, Priyankar Sarkar, Co-Founder of Square 64 Capital Advisors LLP, shares insights into his investment philosophy and strategy that have helped his newly launched multicap fund deliver impressive returns.
Sarkar emphasizes the importance of consistent cash flow generation and incremental return on capital employed (ROCE) as key metrics for identifying long-term wealth creators.
Focusing on a disciplined, value-oriented approach, he highlights how combining patience with selective investing in high-quality businesses can unlock sustainable growth over time. Edited Excerpts –
ADVERTISEMENT Q) Thanks for taking the time out. Please take us through the performance of the fund in June when you Multicap fund clocked more than 19% return?A) Leading the gains is our largest holding, which has surged by an impressive 61.6%. It is a company in the aerospace and defence space with a very healthy and growing order book.
A mid-sized upstream oil and gas company, which holds the second-largest weight in our portfolio, has also shown strong performance with a 26.5% increase.
Our third-largest company is a life insurance company that is part of the Nifty 50 index, which had modest gains of ~5% for the month of June.These results underscore our balanced approach, capturing high-growth potential while maintaining exposure to stable, long-term value creators.
ADVERTISEMENT Q) It is a newly launched fund, but the numbers are impressive especially for the past few months. Please take us through the investment objective?A) Our goal is to compound capital steadily over time without taking undue risk. We follow a disciplined, value-oriented approach, focusing on high-quality, consistent compounders temporarily overlooked by the market.This disconnect often creates a favourable risk-reward equation, allowing us to enter at attractive valuations. We believe growth and value are joined at the hip, true value lies in sustainable growth trading at attractive prices.
ADVERTISEMENT Simply put: buy quality when it's out of favour and let compounding do the heavy lifting. It's not about chasing momentum, but about patience, conviction, and a long-term perspective.
Q) Being sector and market cap agnostic gives you wide flexibility. How do you ensure diversification and risk management without restricting yourself to specific segments?
ADVERTISEMENT A) We do run a fairly concentrated portfolio, but we ensure adequate diversification by limiting exposure to any one sector, typically, we avoid having more than two holdings from the same space.Our value-conscious investment style acts as a natural risk filter. We're not in the business of paying up for growth, which helps us avoid frothy valuations and the risks that come with them.This bottom-up discipline allows us to stay selective, reduce downside risk, and compound capital efficiently over the long term.
ADVERTISEMENT
Q) How do you assess management quality, especially when investing in family-owned companies versus professionally run firms? Are there different evaluation parameters?A) Management quality is a cornerstone of our investment process. We prioritize companies led by leadership teams with a proven track record.We remain vigilant for red flags such as frequent equity dilution or questionable related-party transactions. Additionally, in professionally managed firms, incentive alignment plays a crucial role; we carefully assess ESOP structures and compensation policies to ensure management's interests are closely tied to long-term shareholder value creation.
Q) You hold a portion of your portfolio in liquid ETFs. Could you share your strategy behind maintaining cash equivalents in your portfolio? Is it tactical or a consistent allocation? A) We currently maintain a portion of the portfolio in liquid ETFs, and this is a tactical decision rather than a structural allocation.There's an old market adage in the equity markets that says you either get good prices or good news, seldom at the same time.In the current environment, particularly in the mid and small-cap segments, valuations are stretched, and sentiments are running high.That calls for a degree of restraint. We believe it's prudent to keep some dry powder ready. This cash position gives us the flexibility to deploy when more compelling opportunities emerge.
Q) Let's talk about markets. Well, we have seen volatile 1H2025 but bulls managed to have an upper hand. How do you see markets panning out for the rest of the calendar year? A) There are numerous macroeconomic factors in flux, ranging from inflation dynamics and interest rate policies to global geopolitical developments.Given this complex backdrop, the market appears somewhat elevated at current levels. This suggests the possibility of a meaningful correction, either in terms of price or time, before we can expect a sustained rally.In such an environment, it has become increasingly difficult to scout for genuine value opportunities.
Q) What is your wealth creation mantra which have worked for you? It could be a ratio or metric which you always track. A) Over the years, I've realized that cash flow is paramount. If a company has generated positive operating cash flow consistently for the past decade, it's a strong signal that's hard to overlook, as very few companies meet this benchmark.
Alongside cash flow, I closely track incremental Return on Capital Employed, which has been a reliable metric in identifying quality wealth creators.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Retail investors dump 68% of Nifty stocks chasing smallcap crorepati dreams. Is this a trap?
Retail investors dump 68% of Nifty stocks chasing smallcap crorepati dreams. Is this a trap?

Time of India

time8 minutes ago

  • Time of India

Retail investors dump 68% of Nifty stocks chasing smallcap crorepati dreams. Is this a trap?

Indian retail investors are selling their holdings in Nifty50 companies. They are seeking higher returns in small and mid-cap stocks. This trend is driven by impatience and the desire for quick profits. Experts warn against this strategy. They cite risks like volatility and poor governance. Institutional investors are buying the bluechip stocks that retail investors are selling. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What's the psychology behind the sell-off? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The smallcap gamble The experts highlight a minefield of specific, often overlooked, dangers: Crippling Volatility and Liquidity Traps: "Smallcaps are inherently more volatile than largecaps, with lower liquidity and higher sensitivity to market or economic shocks," explains Karthick Jonagadla. This means portfolios can "magnify portfolio swings and potential losses." Sheth adds a critical point about exit strategy: "Smallcaps can be hard to exit in downturns. If there's a market correction or panic, these stocks fall harder and faster—and may not recover as easily." Questionable Quality and Governance: The mad dash for returns often means due diligence is ignored. "Many small and midcap companies may lack the transparency, consistent performance, and robust governance standards that bluechip stocks maintain," Jonagadla warns. "Retail investors chasing rallies often ignore these critical qualitative factors." The Peril of Herding and Stretched Valuations: When everyone rushes into the same few stocks, it creates a bubble. "As more retail investors crowd into the same set of smallcaps, these stocks can become highly overvalued, exacerbating the risk of a sharp correction when sentiment reverses," says Jonagadla. Sheth confirms that many of these stocks are now trading at "stretched valuations, without matching earnings support," exposing investors to severe valuation compression risk. In a high-stakes gamble for explosive returns, a vast army of retail investors has systematically shedded its holdings in India's most formidable bluechip companies. Driven by a potent cocktail of impatience, profit-booking, and the intoxicating allure of finding the next multibagger , they are abandoning the perceived safety of Nifty50 stock to chase the "crorepati" dream in the volatile, high-octane world of small and mid-cap numbers from the June 2025 quarter show that retail investors have pared stakes in 34 of 50 companies constituting the Nifty index, which means 3 out of every 4th bluechip stock saw small investors taking a bearish move is made all the more dramatic by the fact that many of these discarded giants have been stellar performers. Investors have been selling shares in companies like Bajaj Finance, which has rocketed 28.5% year-to-date, and defence stalwart BEL, up an impressive 29%. This paradox suggests a conscious, aggressive strategy: cash in the steady gains from the giants and redeploy the winnings onto the riskier, but potentially more rewarding, terrain of the broader is driving millions of investors to collectively turn their backs on stability? Market experts point to a confluence of powerful behavioral Sheth , Head of Market Perspectives & Research at SAMCO Securities , identifies a core sentiment of frustration. "Looking at the investment behaviour of the retail investors in the recent past, it seems that they are fed up with the ongoing consolidation in the largecap stocks," he observes, adding that this phase of sideways movement has been "unduly prolonged." For investors seeing small-caps deliver triple-digit returns elsewhere, the steady, single-digit churn of a largecap leader can feel like impatience is fertile ground for the fear of missing out, or FOMO. Karthick Jonagadla , Founder of Quantace Research, says retail investors may be exiting bluechip Nifty stocks in favor of smallcap and midcap names, hoping to capture outsized gains in those segments.'The outperformance of these lesser-valued segments in previous cycles can generate a fear of missing out (FOMO), often leading retail participation to surge in already rallying stocks,' he concurs, noting, "Retail tends to follow trends, and the recent outperformance of broader markets may have created a FOMO effect. Stocks that already ran up are being assumed to continue that momentum."For many, the decision is also tactical. Anand K Rathi, Co-Founder of MIRA Money, sees this as a "classic case of profit booking." He elaborates that it's a "common behavioral pattern where investors—retail or HNIs—tend to exit well-performing bluechip stocks to preserve gains and rotate capital into areas they believe have higher near-term upside or appear undervalued."However, Rathi issues a stern warning against this seemingly savvy move. "Investors frequently lose out on long-term wealth building while using this strategy," he cautions. "They enter risky equities without considering fundamentals and sell winners too soon, only to see their earlier holdings grow even more. Such reactionary investing, motivated more by short-term stories than by long-term convictions, may backfire."The exodus of retail investors has created a fascinating divergence when contrasted with the behavior of institutional "smart money." While retail sold, mutual funds increased their holdings in 33 Nifty companies, and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in schism is starkly visible at the individual stock level. In IndusInd Bank, retail investors shed a significant 1.10% of their holdings. In the same period, FIIs saw a buying opportunity, aggressively increasing their stake by a massive 4.16%. A similar story played out in BEL, where a 0.72% retail exit was met with a 1.01% FII institutional conviction suggests a fundamentally different thesis. While retail chases short-term momentum, institutions appear to be capitalizing on the availability of high-quality assets, perhaps seeing long-term value where retail sees limited near-term upside. Jonagadla notes that some retail investors may be selling because they believe "further upside is now limited" in Nifty stocks that have already run Apurva Sheth offers another layer of nuance. The decline in direct share ownership might not be a complete abandonment of blue-chips. "Some of the reduced direct ownership in largecaps may also be explained by a shift to SIPs and mutual fund investing," he suggests. "Retail may prefer managed portfolios, especially in volatile markets, leading to declining individual holdings even in top-quality names."While the chase for multibaggers is exhilarating, market veterans are nearly unanimous in their warnings about the dangers of this strategy. They describe it as "classic late-cycle optimism" and a gamble that exchanges stability for fragility."This is a serious risk during bullish times," states Anand K Rathi. "It may seem profitable to sell largecaps with solid fundamentals and reallocate a significant portion to smallcaps but doing so exposes investors to high volatility and concentration risk."Apurva Sheth echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the danger for the average investor. "It's a significant risk, especially for inexperienced or emotionally driven investors," he says. "By exiting diversified bluechips (like RIL, HDFC Bank), retail is exchanging stability for fragility."Perhaps the most significant risk is the abandonment of a proven wealth-creation strategy. "Historical returns demonstrate that a core allocation to quality bluechip stocks underpins long-term wealth creation," reminds Jonagadla. "Sudden portfolio shifts based on short-term momentum can compromise overall diversification, making portfolios riskier than what retail investors may realize."Anand K Rathi stresses that this behavior can be self-destructive. "From the perspective of portfolio construction, these tactics have the potential to sabotage long-term objectives," he says. The very act of selling a steady compounder to buy a speculative asset can be the costliest mistake an investor Anand K Rathi aptly concludes, investors should build their portfolios with a clear principle in mind: "Balance, not blind rotation is the key.": Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Stocks to buy under  ₹100: Experts recommend four shares to buy today — 4 July 2025
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Mint

timean hour ago

  • Mint

Stocks to buy under ₹100: Experts recommend four shares to buy today — 4 July 2025

Stocks to buy under ₹ 100: Following weak global cues after Trump's tariff bombshell on Thursday night, the Indian stock market ended lower on Friday. The Nifty 50 index finished southward for the fifth successive week, its prolonged losing streak since the week ending August 25, 2023. This selling was across segments, as the BSE Sensex and the Bank Nifty index witnessed selling pressure in the previous week, while the small-cap and mid-cap indices ended more than 2% lower last week. Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said, "The underlying trend of the Nifty 50 index remains weak. A decisive move below the support of 24,500 could cause the index to slide down towards the next lower area of 24,100-24,000 levels in the near term. Immediate resistance for Nifty is placed at 24,950 levels." "The Bank Nifty index once again slipped from the important 50-DEMA zone at the 56,100 level, with bias weakening to close near the 55,600 zone, and is precariously placed as of now, with a major support level at risk, which can further weaken the overall trend. For the bias to improve, the index would need to sustain the important 55,400 zone and, on the upside, would need to move past the 56,400 zone decisively and thereafter, anticipate further upward move," said Shiju Kuthupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher. Regarding stocks to buy today, market experts Mehul Kothari, Deputy Vice President — Technical Research at Anand Rathi; Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet; and Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment, recommended these four intraday stocks for today under ₹ 100: IDFC First Bank, UCO Bank, Lloyds Engineering Works, and Shriram Properties. 1] IDFC First Bank: Buy at ₹ 67 to ₹ 68, Target ₹ 75, Stop Loss ₹ 64; and 2] UCO Bank: Buy at ₹ 28 to ₹ 29, Target ₹ 34, Stop Loss ₹ 26. 3] Lloyds Engineering Works: Buy at ₹ 68.40, Targets ₹ 71, ₹ 72.50, Stop Loss ₹ 66.80. 4] Shriram Properties: Buy at ₹ 92.50, Target ₹ 98, Stop Loss ₹ 90. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on August 4
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Mint

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Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on August 4

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a cautious note on Monday, tracking mixed global market cues. The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,675 level, a premium of nearly 48 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. On Friday, the domestic equity market ended sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 24,600 level. The Sensex dropped 585.67 points, or 0.72%, to close at 80,599.91, while the Nifty 50 settled 203.00 points, or 0.82%, lower at 24,565.35. Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today: Sensex dropped 1.08% last week, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline, and has been facing immediate resistance between 81,500 and 81,700 — a region that previously acted as support. 'A sustained move above this zone is required to shift momentum back in favour of the bulls, potentially paving the way for a move toward 82,200. On the downside, support lies at the 80,000 - 79,800 zone. A breach below this level may trigger further selling, dragging Sensex toward 79,200 – 79,000 in the near term,' said Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Nifty 50 index formed a High Wave candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe on August 1, indicating a sense of indecision in the market. Meanwhile, the index formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe, which suggests a chance of reversal. 'A long negative candle was formed on the daily chart on Friday at the new swing lows beside the long bull candle of previous session. Technically, this market action is suggesting inherent weakness in the market to sustain the bounces. Nifty 50 is currently placed near the crucial support of around 24,500 levels (multiple swing lows of May-June 25), but the sustainable recovery has not emerged from near the support so far. The bearish lower highs and lower lows pattern is intact on the daily chart,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. Nifty 50, on the weekly chart, formed a reasonable negative candle, which is for the fifth consecutive bearish candle formation on the trot. The previous sharp upside breakout of larger range movement of last month has been completely negated and the market slipped below the immediate support zone of 24,600 mark, Shetti added. According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 remains weak, and a decisive move below the support of 24,500, Nifty 50 could slide down towards the next lower area of 24,100 - 24,000 levels in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,950 levels. Mayank Jain noted that the key resistance for Nifty 50 is now positioned in the 24,800 – 25,000 zone. 'This level has repeatedly capped upside attempts, and a clear breakout will be needed to restore bullish confidence and aim for the 25,200 – 25,350 zone. On the lower end, the index has near-term support at 24,400 – 24,200. A decisive break below this range may accelerate downside momentum toward the 24,000 level,' Jain said. Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of said that the Nifty 50 formed a Head and Shoulder pattern on the daily chart with the neckline placed at the 24,500 level. 'The support for Nifty 50 is also at the 24,500 levels, a break of which can take the index to the 24,000 levels soon. The momentum indicators are showing weakness in the index, suggesting a fall at least till the support level in the coming days. The Options writer's data shows increased call writing for the present weekly expiry, indicating weakness in the index. The global cues also indicates weakness to continue in the index,' said Dwarakanath. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today recommends market participants to continue their 'sell-on-rise' strategy until the Nifty 50 index tests its support range between 24,000 and 24,150. 'They may plan breakout trades above 24,850, as this level is an important resistance point for the Nifty 50 index. We can expect Nifty 50 to gather support between 24,530 and 24,400 and meet resistance near 24,820 and 24,950 in today's trading session,' Ambala said. Bank Nifty ended 344.35 points, or 0.62%, lower at 55,617.60 on Friday, forming another red candle on the daily chart, reflecting continued pressure near the 56,000 mark — a level that earlier acted as a cushion. 'Bank Nifty index is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, with both averages exhibiting a downward slope — a sign of prevailing weakness. Additionally, the daily RSI has slipped below the 40 mark and continues to trend lower, reflecting fading momentum and increasing bearish pressure. The daily MACD stays bearish as it is quoting below its zero line and signal line. The MACD histogram is suggesting a pickup in downside momentum,' said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. Going ahead, he believes the zone of 55,200 - 55,100 will act as important support for the Bank Nifty index. If the index slips below the 55,100 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 54,600 level. On the upside, the zone of 56,300 - 56,400 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that both the 20-day and 50-day SMAs remain breached, confirming the short-term downtrend. The RSI has declined further to 39, maintaining a consistent downward slope in the near term. 'The next support for Bank Nifty lies at 55,150 – 55,000, a zone that held well during the mid-June consolidation phase. A decisive breakdown below this zone may invite further decline. The immediate resistance has shifted to 56,000, followed by 56,200. A close above these levels will be essential to neutralize the ongoing weakness. The intraday sessions may become more volatile in the coming days,' Mehra said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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