How an Edinburgh by-election turned to a 'night of high drama'
But every now and then, these contests turn unexpectedly exciting — offering a glimpse of which way the political winds may be blowing more broadly.
In the run up to polling day for Edinburgh's Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart by-election on Thursday, campaigners of all stripes agreed all bets were off as it looked to be a tight race with no obvious favourite. The seat was Labour's to lose, after their councillor Val Walker passed away in April.
Shortly after 11.30, the brightly-lit room in the council's headquarters where votes were being counted started to fill up. Candidates, election agents and other spectators were laser-focused on three lime green bars of equal length displayed on two large screens which suggested a three horse race between the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Greens.
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Among the steady hum and clicks of ballot counting machines, I heard one seasoned local politico break their nervy silence: 'I've never seen anything like this before.'
Usually at this point in a count, a clear winner emerges. But only one thing was certain. This would be an abysmal result for the Conservatives, who got the most first preference votes by a comfortable margin here in 2022 but were now trailing behind the four other main parties.
Earlier in the night a council press officer estimated we'd have a result by midnight, so as the clock struck 12 with no verdict it was a clear sign of just how close the race would be.
I was distracted from clockwatching by a huddle of Liberal Democrats in the corner who appeared determined to keep a poker face. Standing nearby, one of their councillors was on a call, hanging on every word.
All of a sudden, he let out a roar and bounded back to his colleagues who cheered, clapped and embraced each other. We had our result.
While the declaration of first-preference votes reveals who voters ranked first, it's far from the full picture, especially on a night like this.
On first preferences, Labour were just 24 votes ahead of the Lib Dems, with the Greens behind them by 136.
By the seventh round of transfers, Labour still had the lead by 26, narrowing to 14 by the eighth. At the next stage when Reform's candidate was eliminated, 33 votes were transferred to Labour and 43 went to the Lib Dems, with the latter then ahead by just four.
At stage 10, the SNP dropped out as their second preferences were fairly evenly split between the two frontrunners, nudging Labour's lead up to 22. It wasn't until the 11th round of counting that the Lib Dem candidate, Kevin McKay, pulled ahead — gaining 387 next-preference votes from the Tories, compared to 166 for Labour. After the Greens were eliminated, the final margin between the top two stood at 97 votes.
This all comes with the important caveat that a 33.1% turnout means the vast majority of voters in the area either didn't care enough to cast a ballot or were blissfully unaware the by-election was taking place. While typical for a local by-election turnout, this nonetheless paints a bleak picture of local democracy.
By-election victor Kevin McKay (Image: By-election winner Kevin McKay) For the Lib Dems this wasn't just an impressive turnaround from their 7.1% share of first-preference votes in the ward back in 2022, but also much-needed redemption after a humiliating turn of events following a council by-election in Edinburgh last November. A single seat contest in Colinton/Fairmilehead produced a similarly impressive result, rising from fourth place in 2022 to first, increasing their share of first preferences by 23.9%.
Corks had barely popped from the champagne bottles when a tabloid newspaper revealed the Lib Dem's new councillor Louise Spence - who had positioned herself as the local candidate against rivals from outside the area - put her house on the market the day after she was elected. Reports suggested she planned to move to Dubai and split her time between there and Edinburgh. She resigned after just a week in office, and the Lib Dems were subsequently trounced in the by-election re-run in January.
McKay, Lib Dem councillor Kevin Lang assured me after the result was officially declared in the early hours of Friday, was "definitely not' planning a relocation.
'If there's one thing we learned a lesson from last November it's that,' he said.
'This has been probably the most extraordinary council election I've been involved in in 20 years in Edinburgh politics.
'I've never known such an even contest. Every party it felt like was in contention, even as you got to the final number of first preferences cast it wasn't clear who had won.
"I've never known anything like that, and I'm just glad that on a night of high drama like that it's my party that ends up on top.
'We've had other by-elections in Edinburgh where we've moved forward and it shows we are a party that is on the up in Edinburgh.
'We go into not just next year's Scottish Parliament election but the council election in 2027 with real ambition and optimism.'
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But before then, the council's Lib Dem group will once again face questions over whether they will take advantage of their increased headcount and seek to take control of the council. Their win deals yet another blow to Labour's control of the local authority, now with just 11 councillors of a total 63 in the City Chambers.
Whether the Lib Dems will continue to prop up a minority Labour administration alongside the Conservatives, or make a bid for power themselves, will now be the focus of internal party discussions.
Councillor Ed Thornley, Lib Dem group leader on Edinburgh Council, did not rule it out. 'We've been the second largest group for a little while, that is an additional one to our number,' he said.
'What that means we don't know yet because nobody knew who was going to win this by-election and anyone who did is having you on.'
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