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The Herald Scotland
a day ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
How an Edinburgh by-election turned to a 'night of high drama'
But every now and then, these contests turn unexpectedly exciting — offering a glimpse of which way the political winds may be blowing more broadly. In the run up to polling day for Edinburgh's Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart by-election on Thursday, campaigners of all stripes agreed all bets were off as it looked to be a tight race with no obvious favourite. The seat was Labour's to lose, after their councillor Val Walker passed away in April. Shortly after 11.30, the brightly-lit room in the council's headquarters where votes were being counted started to fill up. Candidates, election agents and other spectators were laser-focused on three lime green bars of equal length displayed on two large screens which suggested a three horse race between the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Greens. Read more: Among the steady hum and clicks of ballot counting machines, I heard one seasoned local politico break their nervy silence: 'I've never seen anything like this before.' Usually at this point in a count, a clear winner emerges. But only one thing was certain. This would be an abysmal result for the Conservatives, who got the most first preference votes by a comfortable margin here in 2022 but were now trailing behind the four other main parties. Earlier in the night a council press officer estimated we'd have a result by midnight, so as the clock struck 12 with no verdict it was a clear sign of just how close the race would be. I was distracted from clockwatching by a huddle of Liberal Democrats in the corner who appeared determined to keep a poker face. Standing nearby, one of their councillors was on a call, hanging on every word. All of a sudden, he let out a roar and bounded back to his colleagues who cheered, clapped and embraced each other. We had our result. While the declaration of first-preference votes reveals who voters ranked first, it's far from the full picture, especially on a night like this. On first preferences, Labour were just 24 votes ahead of the Lib Dems, with the Greens behind them by 136. By the seventh round of transfers, Labour still had the lead by 26, narrowing to 14 by the eighth. At the next stage when Reform's candidate was eliminated, 33 votes were transferred to Labour and 43 went to the Lib Dems, with the latter then ahead by just four. At stage 10, the SNP dropped out as their second preferences were fairly evenly split between the two frontrunners, nudging Labour's lead up to 22. It wasn't until the 11th round of counting that the Lib Dem candidate, Kevin McKay, pulled ahead — gaining 387 next-preference votes from the Tories, compared to 166 for Labour. After the Greens were eliminated, the final margin between the top two stood at 97 votes. This all comes with the important caveat that a 33.1% turnout means the vast majority of voters in the area either didn't care enough to cast a ballot or were blissfully unaware the by-election was taking place. While typical for a local by-election turnout, this nonetheless paints a bleak picture of local democracy. By-election victor Kevin McKay (Image: By-election winner Kevin McKay) For the Lib Dems this wasn't just an impressive turnaround from their 7.1% share of first-preference votes in the ward back in 2022, but also much-needed redemption after a humiliating turn of events following a council by-election in Edinburgh last November. A single seat contest in Colinton/Fairmilehead produced a similarly impressive result, rising from fourth place in 2022 to first, increasing their share of first preferences by 23.9%. Corks had barely popped from the champagne bottles when a tabloid newspaper revealed the Lib Dem's new councillor Louise Spence - who had positioned herself as the local candidate against rivals from outside the area - put her house on the market the day after she was elected. Reports suggested she planned to move to Dubai and split her time between there and Edinburgh. She resigned after just a week in office, and the Lib Dems were subsequently trounced in the by-election re-run in January. McKay, Lib Dem councillor Kevin Lang assured me after the result was officially declared in the early hours of Friday, was "definitely not' planning a relocation. 'If there's one thing we learned a lesson from last November it's that,' he said. 'This has been probably the most extraordinary council election I've been involved in in 20 years in Edinburgh politics. 'I've never known such an even contest. Every party it felt like was in contention, even as you got to the final number of first preferences cast it wasn't clear who had won. "I've never known anything like that, and I'm just glad that on a night of high drama like that it's my party that ends up on top. 'We've had other by-elections in Edinburgh where we've moved forward and it shows we are a party that is on the up in Edinburgh. 'We go into not just next year's Scottish Parliament election but the council election in 2027 with real ambition and optimism.' More from our Edinburgh Correspondent: But before then, the council's Lib Dem group will once again face questions over whether they will take advantage of their increased headcount and seek to take control of the council. Their win deals yet another blow to Labour's control of the local authority, now with just 11 councillors of a total 63 in the City Chambers. Whether the Lib Dems will continue to prop up a minority Labour administration alongside the Conservatives, or make a bid for power themselves, will now be the focus of internal party discussions. Councillor Ed Thornley, Lib Dem group leader on Edinburgh Council, did not rule it out. 'We've been the second largest group for a little while, that is an additional one to our number,' he said. 'What that means we don't know yet because nobody knew who was going to win this by-election and anyone who did is having you on.'
The Herald Scotland
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Lib Dems claim victory in close Edinburgh by-election
In a tight race, runners-up Labour were just 24 votes ahead of the Lib Dems after first preference votes were counted. Mr McKay pulled ahead after a further 12 rounds of transfers and by the final round of counting was 97 votes ahead of Labour's candidate, Catriona Munro. The Greens came third with 18.2% of first preferences, followed by the SNP on 14.5% and the Conservatives on 13.8%. A total of 6,264 ballots were cast, reflecting a turnout of 33.1%. It was a surprise result for the Lib Dems who came fifth in the ward at the last local elections in 2022 with just 7.1%. They now have 14 councillors in the City Chambers and remain the second largest party. The contest in Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart was triggered by the sudden death of Labour councillor Val Walker in April. In a speech shortly after midnight on Friday when the result was declared, Councillor McKay said, 'no one I think wanted this by election'. He said: 'I think we all miss Val Walker, I particularly knew her through the community council. By election winner Kevin McKay, left, with returning officer Paul Lawrence, right (Image: Newsquest) 'I didn't want to be here, but I am, pleased to try and fill her shoes. She did have big shoes. 'I am overwhelmed by this result. I don't think we expected it, but I'm very pleased and I am really thankful to my constituents who voted for me. I will do my best to disappoint them and to keep their trust.' When asked afterwards what he believed had secured his victory, he said: 'I think because I care. 'I'm not a professional politician. I don't live and breathe politics. 'I'm enthusiastic about doing good things. 'I really liked Val and I've said to a lot of people I didn't really want to be here, it was so sudden.' Councillor McKay said his priorities would be 'parking and potholes'. He said: 'I live in an area that isn't restricted parking at the moment so it's the end of the zones, so we get the commuters coming in. 'That's fine and I can totally understand why they want to do that but it is very annoying for all the residents. Particularly around Craiglockhart there's quite an elderly community and they say 'we can't get our carers to stop outside the house'.' Read more: Why Edinburgh by-election this week is city's 'most open contest in 20 years' Edinburgh council chief admits Tour de France funding decision 'was inappropriate' 'I look forward to hearing from your lawyers': How council debate turned to chaos Councillor Ed Thornley, Lib Dem group leader in the City Chambers said: 'Kevin is an eminently credible candidate, he's got that local record of activity, he's a lovely guy. People believed him when he said 'I will work hard for you'.' Asked if the result could lead to the Lib Dems taking control of the council now that they had three more seats than the minority Labour administration, Thornley replied: 'We've been the second largest group for a little while, that is an additional one to our number and what that means we don't know yet because nobody knew who was going to win this by-election and anyone who did is having you on.' Former Lib Dem group leader Kevin Lang said: 'We won by over 100 votes I believe in the end. It's an astonishing result. We've never done better than fourth place on first preferences in this ward. 'We worked very hard. 'But there's no doubt Kevin McKay, a well-respected community councillor was a huge asset for us in this ward. But we've had other by-elections in Edinburgh where we've moved forward.' The result, Lang added, 'shows that we are a party that is on the up in Edinburgh' in the lead up to the Scottish Parliament elections and local elections in 2027. He said: 'This has been probably the most extraordinary council election I've been involved in in 20 years in Edinburgh politics. 13 candidates stood in the by-election (Image: Newsquest) 'I've never known such an even contest. Ever party it felt like was in contention, even as you got to the final number of first preferences cast it wasn't clear who had won. I've never known anything like that, and I'm just glad that on a night of high drama like that it's my party that ends up on top.' Ms Munro said: 'I'm disappointed but these things happen. 'We ran a really good campaign we got a very positive reception on the doorsteps, we had a good message to deliver and it's disappointing that on the transfers of preferences that we lost out to the Lib Dems but these things happen.' It was the second Edinburgh Council by-election held this year, following one in the neighbouring Colinton/Fairmilehead ward in January in which Labour and the Conservatives each gained a seat.
The Herald Scotland
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Edinburgh Council by-election a ‘toss-up' as all bets off
The election was triggered following the tragic death of Labour councillor Val Walker in April. Walker was elected to the City Chambers for the first time in 2022 and served as convener of the authority's Culture and Communities Committee. In the last local election the Conservatives, SNP and Labour emerged as victors in the ward. But with all three parties having seen shifts in support since 2022, the outcome of this contest is far from certain. On the ballot, often a crowded one in Edinburgh by-elections, are candidates representing the five mainstream parties - Scottish National Party, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, Scottish Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens - alongside the Scottish Family Party, Scottish Libertarian Party and five independents. Though the vote will still use the Single Transferrable Vote (STV) system - where candidates are ranked in order of preference - a single-seat by-election means it functions more like a winner-takes-all contest, making it harder to predict and less proportional than a full multi-member race. So when it comes to predictions, all bets are off. Read more: As one campaign source put it, "I have absolutely no earthly idea what will happen'. They told The Herald it was the 'most open election I've seen in my nearly 20 years in Edinburgh politics'. Similarly, polling and elections website Ballot Box Scotland predicts a 'Holyrood five tossup'. According to analysis published by BBS, the 2022 result run as a single seat election sees the Conservatives finish in third place after transfers despite having the most first preference votes, with Labour going 'the opposite direction, starting from third but climbing to a relatively solid victory over the SNP of just over 10%'. BBS writes: 'Not so very long ago that'd mean we could just say that this was going to be a Labour win, done and dusted, no questions asked. 'Obviously, circumstances have rather changed lately. "Labour have been doing appallingly badly at by-elections, and have even begun to lose wards they were the 2022 winners in. "That's not to say things have been particularly rosy for the SNP either; they've been piling up the wins not because they're gaining or even holding onto votes, but just because Labour are falling that much harder and not getting the transfers.' As for the insurgent Reform UK - who recorded their best ever parliamentary election result in Scotland in this month's Holyrood by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, finishing in third place with 26% - the respected pollster expects a solid share in Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart, but not 'comparable to other recent by-elections'. 'Edinburgh is the least favourable part of Scotland for them,' BBS adds, 'and it's not the posh Conservatives in wards like this that Reform have been siphoning their votes from. Even so, the Conservatives have been doing poorly over the past couple of years as well. 'In other words, in general I'd expect all of the top three to be doing worse now than in 2022. That makes this difficult to predict. 'On top of that, the Greens really weren't that far behind either so should be considered in contention, but remember that their voters are the least likely to turn out at by-elections, which is a mark against them too. "Plus, we can't forget the Lib Dems. Despite relatively weak results in this ward specifically, they are the only Holyrood party clearly and unarguably on the up right now, especially in Edinburgh.' BBS told The Herald that the Greens "have been absolutely gunning for this one" and they had seen "substantial SNP and Labour groups posting too". The bigger picture in Edinburgh City Chambers is that Labour is under pressure to hold on to this seat. Labour has controlled the 63-member council since 2022, despite winning just 13 seats, thanks to support from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Since dropping to 11 councillors, those two parties have continued to lend support to the Labour group in crucial votes, helping it retain control of the local authority. Read more from our Edinburgh Correspondent: Any further loss of seats would further weaken their credibility as a ruling party in the Chambers, although their 'majority' would still be safe if the other two 'pro-union' parties continue to offer support. A result from the Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart by-election is expected around midnight on Friday. The Herald will be at the count to provide live results and reaction. Returning officer for Edinburgh, Paul Lawrence said: 'With the by-election fast approaching, I'd encourage all residents of the Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart ward to head to their local polling station this Thursday. Please remember to bring your poll card. 'The councillor you elect will represent your community on key issues both within the ward and across Edinburgh - so make sure you take this important opportunity to make your voice heard. 'To make sure your vote is counted, if you've received a postal ballot, please return it as soon as possible.' The candidates standing for election are:
Scotsman
3 days ago
- Politics
- Scotsman
Labour prospects of 10th councillor at by-election look slim
At the moment Labour heads a coalition administration in the City Chambers despite only having nine councillors in its group The electorate of Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart will have the opportunity tomorrow to elect a councillor to fill the vacancy brought about by the untimely death of the sitting Labour Councillor, Val Walker. Sign up to our daily newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to Edinburgh News, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... However, Labour's prospects of filling the vacant position are in some doubt to say the least. Last time around in May 2022, the Conservative candidate Christopher Cowdy came first in the Single Transferable Vote election and the Tories are confident that their candidate in the current contest will do likewise. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad At the moment Labour forms the administration up in the High Street despite only having nine councillors in its group. Edinburgh City Council is comprised of 63 councillors and after tomorrow's election that number will be restored, but Labour, unfortunately for them, are unlikely to increase their number to ten. Of course, it is remarkable that they form the administration in the first place and only do so with the support of the Liberal Democrat and Conservative groups who banded together to thwart the aspirations of the SNP/Greens who had the combined total of 29 councillors, just three short of an outright majority. The SNP and Greens assumed that they, and not Labour, would form the administration – with some justification I might add. So why did the Liberal Democrats and the Tories decide to use their combined forces to catapult Labour into power and block the SNP's bid for the spoils? Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad It has been said that both those parties are 'Unionist' and so would naturally want to limit to the role of a party of 'Independence' to that of a by-stander but there would seem to be more to it than that. After all, when I was fortunate to lead the SNP group in the City Chambers, I successfully negotiated coalition deals with first the Liberal Democrats in 2007 and then Labour in 2012, with both coalitions lasting their full term of five years. So it would appear that the reluctance to allow the SNP to run the council along with the Greens was borne out of resentment at the way they were treated by the SNP when it formed the previous administration with the Labour Group. Accusations of arrogance and failure to consider proposals from others were cited as examples of how some SNP members in that particular administration dealt with members from other groups and the Liberal Democrats and Tories did not fancy more of the same, thank you very much. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad So, the outcome of tomorrow's by-election will have no bearing on who runs the council because that ship has already sailed and the only way that it can be sunk is if the Labour Group scuttle it by so incensing their two political allies, the Lib Dems and the Tories, to the extent that they jump ship. Even the current Labour group, inexperienced as it is, surely cannot be so foolish as to jeopardise its position – after all the opportunity to run a council with nine members out of a total of 63 doesn't land in your lap every day!
Scotsman
3 days ago
- Politics
- Scotsman
Edinburgh by-election: Voters in Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart choose new councillor to replace Val Walker
Voters in Edinburgh's Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart ward go to the polls tomorrow, Thursday June 26, in a by-election where almost no-one is willing to predict the result. Sign up to our daily newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to Edinburgh News, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... The by-election was caused by the death of Labour councillor Val Walker, who served as convener of the council's culture and communities committee. There are 13 candidates bidding to replace her. As well as Labour, the Conservatives, SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and Reform UK, there are also five independents standing and representatives of the Scottish Libertarian Party and Scottish Family Party. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad At the last council elections in 2022, four of the five main parties all finished within six per cent of each other. Polling stations will be open from 7am until 10pm on Thursday June 26. | stock The Tories topped the poll with 26.6 per cent of first preferences, just enough to get their candidate elected in the first round of counting. It was almost a dead heat for second place between the SNP on 22.7 per cent and Labour on 22.4 per cent and they each took one of the two remaining seats. But the Greens were not far behind on 19.9 per cent. The Lib Dems got 7.1 per cent. Privately, sources in all the main parties confessed they had no idea who would win the by-election. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad One said: "This is at least a four-way marginal and the Lib Dems are trying where they didn't try before, so does that make it a five-way marginal?" Another said: "This may be the most open election I've ever been involved in - and I've been involved in quite a lot." With only one seat to fill, unless one candidate gets more than 50 per cent of first preferences - which is extremely unlikely here - the result will depend on how votes transfer as low-polling candidates are eliminated and their votes are redistributed according to second and further preferences. As well as Fountainbridge and Craiglockhart, the ward takes in Slateford and Kingsknowe. The current electorate is 18,945. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Any resident in the area aged 16 and over and who has registered can vote. Even though there is only one seat to fill, voters are asked to rank the candidates in order of preference, by writing 1, 2, 3, etc on the ballot paper, choosing as many or few as they like. Polling stations will be open on Thursday, June 26, from 7am until 10pm. The electronic counting of votes will take place on Thursday night, after the polls close. Conservative candidate Mark Hooley | supplied Conservative candidate Mark Hooley grew up in the Parkgrove area of the city, studied politics in Dundee and then lived in the US and in Holland. Currently he is studying for a MSc in Journalism at Edinburgh Napier University, lives in the ward and works for a large national bookmakers. He ran as a Conservative candidate in the Sighthill/Gorgie ward in the 2022 council elections. The theme of his campaign is 'back to basics' and he thinks that too much focus has been put on what he calls 'vanity projects' such as trams, cycle lanes, pedestrianisation of George Street and road closures, with the result that the day-to-day basics of potholes, road safety, residents' parking and graffiti. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad SNP candidate Murray Visentin | supplied SNP candidate Murray Visentin was born and raised in the ward and has lived in it his whole life and says he wants to become a voice for the community that shaped him. He is part of the leadership team at the big Asda off Slateford Road, where has has worked for 20 years. Just before the pandemic he was diagnosed with stage 4 throat cancer. He pulled through - thanks, he says, to aggressive treatment, a determined and positive mindset, and a lot of support. He says it changed how he sees life. He has been an activist for Scottish independence since he was 12 years old and believes every national and local issue we face would be better served in an independent country. Labour candidate Catriona Munro | supplied Labour candidate Catriona Munro has lived in south Edinburgh for over 25 years. Sh was a partner in one of Scotland's leading law firms, but has now retired from full-time practice. She has been an active member of the Labour Party throughout her adult life, first in London and for the last 25 years, in Edinburgh Southern. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad She says as a partner in a major law firm, she was a business owner and has extensive management experience at a senior level, as well as navigating through large organisations, dealing with and advising senior business people and interacting with various arms of government, advocating for clients and negotiating with opposing parties. Lib Dem candidate Kevin McKay | supplied Lib Dem candidate Kevin McKay has lived in Craiglockhart for the last 12 years. He is a member and the current treasurer of Craiglockhart Community Council. He is recently retired from work, having spent his career in the water industry tackling pollution issues, including through setting up his own business. He says if elected, he would join a City Chambers Lib Dem team fighting for road safety, investment in schools, and fixing our pavements and roads. Green candidate Q Manivannan | supplied Green candidate Q Manivannan is from the Tamil community and was born in India, making Scotland home since 2021. He has worked in the United Nations, in trade unions, voluntary organisations, and as an award-winning scholar in universities and won the Kavya Prize for Scottish writers of colour in 2023. He co-convenes the Palestine Solidarity Group for the Scottish Greens. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad The Greens say Q would bring fresh new energy and new thinking to the City Chambers, together with a deep personal commitment to a kinder, caring politics that listens to people and communities. He names his priorities in the ward as road safety and traffic; tenants' rights and rents; and protecting green spaces. Full list of candidates Bonnie Prince Bob, Independent Derrick Emms, Independent Lukasz Furmaniak, Scottish Libertarian Party Mark Hooley, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Richard Crewe Lucas, Scottish Family Party Q Manivannan, Scottish Greens Kevin Joseph McKay, Scottish Liberal Democrats Catriona Munro, Scottish Labour Party Gary Neill, Reform UK Mark Rowbotham, Independent Murray Visentin, Scottish National Party (SNP) Steve Christopher West, Independent Marc Wilkinson, Independent
