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Bad news for meat lovers in South Africa

Bad news for meat lovers in South Africa

The Citizen2 days ago
Meat has become the biggest driver of food inflation.
The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Africa has led to a significant increase in meat prices over the past three months.
FMD is a highly contagious viral disease of livestock that has a significant economic impact. The disease affects cattle, swine, sheep, goats and other cloven-hoofed ruminants.
Over the past months, SA has seen outbreaks in Gauteng, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and the Free State. Recently, the department of agriculture lifted restrictions in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo provinces after implementing intensified efforts to contain the spread of the disease.
ALSO READ: Will SA run out of beef and chicken? Animal disease hits SA's top producer — what it means for consumers
Meat prices
Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB Commercial, said meat was the biggest driver of food inflation, surging to a 25 month high of 6.6% year-on-year (y/y) and rising by 2.2% month-on-month (m/m) in June 2025.
'The disease-induced supply constraints underpinned the upswing in meat prices in the past three months,' he said.
Due to the disease outbreak, there was a short supply of livestock, mainly cattle. This resulted in meat becoming more expensive.
Meat under threat
Makube added that while farmers were trying to control the FMD outbreak, the poultry industry also experienced a shortage threat.
An outbreak of avian flu, also known as bird flu, in Brazil let to imports from the country being banned. Bird flu is a contagious viral disease that affects both domestic and wild birds.
The ban caused panic in the market, as Barzil is the major source of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), which is used in the manufacturing of products such as polony and viennas. 'SA is a net importer of MDM due to lack of domestic capacity,' Makube said.
ALSO READ: Bird flu: worry not, it is safe to eat eggs and chicken
Ban lifted
However, the department of agriculture and the Brazilian government came to an agreement and partially lifted the ban.
Chicken from states in Brazil that have not experienced the outbreak of bird flu can export chicken to SA. Makube said this move might ease pressure on chicken prices in the medium term.
'While the FMD situation remains sticky with new outbreaks reported in the Free State and persisting in KZN, recent developments are that slaughtering has resumed in major feedlots with producer prices already off the boil early in July 2025'.
Food inflation
He added that South Africa's food inflation edged higher to 3% y/y in June 2025 relative to May's 2.8% y/y, underpinned by gains in core items and food and non-alcoholic beverages (FNAB), but still came below expectations of a 3.1% spike.
'Our analysis of the FNAB shows a 0.3 percentage point jump from the May level to 5.1% y/y in June. The food sub-index rose by the same margin from the previous month to 4.7% y/y choked by meat.
'However, monthly, food inflation slowed from 1.2% m/m in May to 0.7% m/m in June 2025, led by the fruits and nuts subcategory, which declined for the fourth consecutive month to -2.4% m/m.'
The future
'In terms of the food inflation outlook, downside risks include a persistent rand exchange rate appreciation, weak international crude oil prices, bulging global grains stocks outlook (+586 million tons) and the consequent downside pressure on prices, as well as the potential recovery in livestock slaughter rates if the FMD situation dissipates further.'
NOW READ: Here are the economic and social impacts of bird flu
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Bad news for meat lovers in South Africa
Bad news for meat lovers in South Africa

The Citizen

time2 days ago

  • The Citizen

Bad news for meat lovers in South Africa

Meat has become the biggest driver of food inflation. The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Africa has led to a significant increase in meat prices over the past three months. FMD is a highly contagious viral disease of livestock that has a significant economic impact. The disease affects cattle, swine, sheep, goats and other cloven-hoofed ruminants. Over the past months, SA has seen outbreaks in Gauteng, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and the Free State. Recently, the department of agriculture lifted restrictions in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo provinces after implementing intensified efforts to contain the spread of the disease. ALSO READ: Will SA run out of beef and chicken? Animal disease hits SA's top producer — what it means for consumers Meat prices Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB Commercial, said meat was the biggest driver of food inflation, surging to a 25 month high of 6.6% year-on-year (y/y) and rising by 2.2% month-on-month (m/m) in June 2025. 'The disease-induced supply constraints underpinned the upswing in meat prices in the past three months,' he said. Due to the disease outbreak, there was a short supply of livestock, mainly cattle. This resulted in meat becoming more expensive. Meat under threat Makube added that while farmers were trying to control the FMD outbreak, the poultry industry also experienced a shortage threat. An outbreak of avian flu, also known as bird flu, in Brazil let to imports from the country being banned. Bird flu is a contagious viral disease that affects both domestic and wild birds. The ban caused panic in the market, as Barzil is the major source of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), which is used in the manufacturing of products such as polony and viennas. 'SA is a net importer of MDM due to lack of domestic capacity,' Makube said. ALSO READ: Bird flu: worry not, it is safe to eat eggs and chicken Ban lifted However, the department of agriculture and the Brazilian government came to an agreement and partially lifted the ban. Chicken from states in Brazil that have not experienced the outbreak of bird flu can export chicken to SA. Makube said this move might ease pressure on chicken prices in the medium term. 'While the FMD situation remains sticky with new outbreaks reported in the Free State and persisting in KZN, recent developments are that slaughtering has resumed in major feedlots with producer prices already off the boil early in July 2025'. Food inflation He added that South Africa's food inflation edged higher to 3% y/y in June 2025 relative to May's 2.8% y/y, underpinned by gains in core items and food and non-alcoholic beverages (FNAB), but still came below expectations of a 3.1% spike. 'Our analysis of the FNAB shows a 0.3 percentage point jump from the May level to 5.1% y/y in June. The food sub-index rose by the same margin from the previous month to 4.7% y/y choked by meat. 'However, monthly, food inflation slowed from 1.2% m/m in May to 0.7% m/m in June 2025, led by the fruits and nuts subcategory, which declined for the fourth consecutive month to -2.4% m/m.' The future 'In terms of the food inflation outlook, downside risks include a persistent rand exchange rate appreciation, weak international crude oil prices, bulging global grains stocks outlook (+586 million tons) and the consequent downside pressure on prices, as well as the potential recovery in livestock slaughter rates if the FMD situation dissipates further.' NOW READ: Here are the economic and social impacts of bird flu

Choc to the system — sweet treats under siege as cocoa prices soar globally
Choc to the system — sweet treats under siege as cocoa prices soar globally

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time3 days ago

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Choc to the system — sweet treats under siege as cocoa prices soar globally

Climate shocks, crop disease and a global supply shortage are resulting in South Africans paying up to 40% more for their favourite chocolate bars and slabs. World Chocolate Day was celebrated annually in the first week of July, but this year there wasn't much to be merry about. In May, global cocoa prices hit R197,500 per tonne. From R154,000 in July 2024, it has been a relentless upwards march and it's hitting South Africans' wallets. And, if that Aero or Bar One feels lighter lately, it's because the world has entered an unprecedented era of chocflation. Ghana and Ivory Coast together produce the lion's share of the world's cocoa. Extreme weather and crop diseases have hit these producing regions exceptionally hard over the past five years. 'The increased variability of seasonal rainfall in the producing areas of the world due to climate change has threatened the viability of cocoa production,' says FNB senior agricultural economist Paul Makube. Cocoa trees need temperatures of between 20℃ and 30℃ and just the right amount of rainfall to grow, Makube explains, but droughts are becoming more frequent and farmers are being forced to adapt or abandon their crops. In addition to climate extremes, crop diseases are decimating harvests. Makube says the cocoa swollen shoot virus has been causing disease that has cut about 17% of Ghana's annual cocoa output over the past few years. Other disease threats that have adversely affected production include witches' broom, frost pod rot and black pod rot, says Thabile Nkunjana, senior economist at the National Agricultural Marketing Council. 'The production, yields and quality of cocoa have all been significantly impacted by these factors and consequently prices have risen sharply in recent years,' Nkunjana says. The numbers are eye-watering. As of June, cocoa hit R215/kg – the highest since the World Bank began tracking prices in 1960, Nkunjana says. In 2023 it was just R66/kg. The International Cocoa Organisation now predicts a global supply shortfall of nearly 500,000 metric tonnes for the 2023/24 season. Nevertheless, the global production outlook remains optimistic, Makube says, although demand prospects are worsening because of 'the uncertainty regarding potential inflationary pressures emanating from the US tariff onslaught'. Global squeeze, local crunch The shock is rippling across the globe and down to the local supermarket. In 2016, a chocolate slab in South Africa would have cost an average of R13.27, according to Statistics South Africa. Today, the price of a Dairy Milk slab ranges from R20 to R50, depending on where one shops. Data from consultancy group Eighty20 shows double-digit inflation on chocolate prices almost every year since 2020, far outpacing the overall consumer inflation rate. Since December 2021, the price of chocolate bars has shot up 40%. Spar is 'closely monitoring the global cocoa supply challenges and the resulting price increases in chocolate products', says Gerhard Ackermann, national merchandise executive at the Spar Group. The retailer is trying to cushion the blow with value promotions and proactive stock management. Pick n Pay says it 'always works to deliver the most affordable prices' while ensuring shelves stay stocked. South African chocolatiers are also recalibrating to weather the cocoa price storm. For Beyers Chocolates, a family-owned company that has been making chocolates since 1987, the steep rise has posed many challenges, says its marketing lead, Susan Krause. The company has responded with 'long-term supplier partnerships, smarter procurement planning and operational efficiencies across the value chain', Krause says. By keeping production local, it has been able to soften some of the cost hikes. At luxury craft chocolate maker Afrikoa, which sources its beans from farmers in Tanzania, the sustained increase in prices has heavily influenced cost, even though direct trade has helped the company to absorb 'some volatility', according to head chocolatier Kyle Hickman. Afrikoa has had to become 'more agile in production planning, prioritising efficiency and minimising waste', Hickman says. But he notes a silver lining in that 'informed consumers increasingly value the kind of responsible production that Afrikoa represents', which strengthens the company's brand story despite price sensitivity. Honest Chocolate cofounder Anthony Gird says the rise in cocoa prices, especially over the past two years, has led the company to 'do a price increase just to keep up' earlier this year. He is hoping it won't have to happen again soon, as the cocoa price hasn't risen significantly since Honest Chocolate's last bean consignment purchase. The company's clientele, Gird says, are understanding. 'People who buy our chocolate understand the value in the quality and ethics of the product.' Even global brands like Nestlé are trying to manage the chocflation. The company's 'Africa for Africa' model is focused on local sourcing and production and is tightening operations to manage costs, says Conny Sethaelo, communications director at Nestlé's east and southern Africa region (ESAR). 'This helps us maintain relevance and trust, even in challenging economic conditions,' she says. Laboratory-crafted luxury While traditional cocoa producers and users fight high prices, some scientists are bypassing the pod entirely. Using plant cell cultures in vats of sugary water, researchers are growing cocoa in labs. But not everyone is excited by the science. 'We respect the innovation behind lab-grown alternatives, but our brand is firmly rooted in celebrating the authenticity of African-grown cocoa,' Hickman says. Gird echoes this sentiment and says Honest Chocolate won't be considering lab-grown cocoa in the near future. 'If cocoa supplies dry up to the extent that it becomes needed, then we would be open to giving it a try.' Krause says Beyers Chocolates is 'keeping an eye on global innovations in the category' and is open to sustainable practices that fit its values. Nestlé, on the other hand, is more focused on soil. 'Nestlé ESAR is investing in regenerative agriculture, traceable technologies and community-based farming models,' Sethaelo says. Climate change is hitting cocoa farming hard and Nkunjana notes that Africa is especially vulnerable. 'Policies that lower the danger of climate change and protect farmers from losses should be given regional priority,' he says. These policies will encourage farmers to grow their cocoa production and improve production as a result. 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BRICS+ Series: Cuban Tourism Set Back as United Airlines Ends Direct Flights, Brazil steps in
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BRICS+ Series: Cuban Tourism Set Back as United Airlines Ends Direct Flights, Brazil steps in

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Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Destinations Impacted Cuban destinations like Old Havana, Varadero, and Trinidad—known for their historical, cultural, and natural attractions—may suffer economically as a result of decreased tourist access. With fewer direct flight options, American visitors may find it more difficult to reach these popular sites, potentially leading to a decline in visitor numbers during off-peak periods. Tourism in Cuba typically peaks during the U.S. winter, when favourable weather encourages travel to the Caribbean. However, in the low season, decreased demand makes certain routes harder for airlines to sustain. United's suspension reflects how seasonal variations and unpredictable market conditions can undermine route viability. Although Cuba has made efforts to attract a broader international audience, American travellers remain among its most important markets. Reduced accessibility from the U.S. could hurt Cuban-owned businesses that rely on foreign spending. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy on Cuba has made it difficult for airlines to plan long-term routes, as travel permissions and restrictions continue to shift under different administrations. With fewer direct links, some U.S. travellers may opt for alternative Caribbean destinations that are easier to access and face fewer regulatory hurdles. This could see Cuba losing ground to regional competitors in terms of tourism numbers. The suspension of the Houston-Havana service reflects wider trends in international travel, where airline decisions are increasingly influenced by political shifts, profitability concerns, and seasonal changes in demand. For Cuba, maintaining its tourism industry may now require expanding ties beyond the U.S. market and forging new partnerships to support its economic recovery. Brazil's Cuban Agreement Brazil and Cuba have taken steps to reinforce their cooperation in the tourism sector during a meeting in Rio de Janeiro, where their respective tourism ministers discussed new strategies to boost mutual visitor numbers, according to an official statement from the Brazilian government. A key item on the agenda was the introduction of a weekly direct flight linking São Paulo and Havana, intended to ease travel between the two nations, which currently often requires layovers in other Latin American countries. The talks also considered reopening a Brazilian branch of Cuba's national tourism agency. This office would not only help promote travel packages but also provide support on trade matters, particularly those involving the supply of products and services vital to the Cuban tourism industry. Brazil's Tourism Minister, Celso Sabino, emphasised the strong historical ties between the two countries and reaffirmed their joint commitment to restoring direct air links. The meeting, attended by representatives from Embratur and the UN Tourism Office for the Americas and the Caribbean, reflected a shared ambition to enhance regional travel connectivity and deepen cooperation in the tourism domain. The termination of the Houston-Havana route highlights the fragility of Cuba's reliance on U.S. tourism amid shifting policy and market dynamics. However, renewed collaboration with countries like Brazil and BRICS offers a potential path forward. By strengthening regional partnerships and diversifying its source markets, Cuba may be able to mitigate the impact of U.S. travel constraints and build greater resilience within its tourism industry. Written by: *Dr Iqbal Survé Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN *Cole Jackson Lead Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group Chinese & South American Specialist **The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL. ** MORE ARTICLES ON OUR WEBSITE ** Follow @brics_daily on X/Twitter & @brics_daily on Instagram for daily BRICS+ updates

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