Tommy Sheppard: Why an SNP majority is crucial in 2026

The National

18 hours ago

Until just a few months ago, they were accused of not mentioning independence enough. Now they are criticised for talking about it too much. Seems they can't win.
John Swinney has had much to say on the topic in recent weeks. In various speeches, he has said independence must be central to the next election, that voting [[SNP]] is the best way to get it and that the party must work with others to achieve its goal. Thoughts on working with others, especially the idea of a new constitutional convention, next week.
For now, let's look at Swinney's ambition to win a majority of seats for the SNP in May 2026, and his contention that this is necessary to move forward to independence.
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In one sense, a party leader setting out to win a majority of the seats in an election is hardly contentious. That's sort of the point. Smaller parties look daft if they ask you to believe they'll do that from a position of negligible support. But for a party that has done it before and nearly done it several times since, it's not an unreasonable aspiration.
It would surely be more remarkable if the leader of the [[SNP]] declared that he didn't intend to win a majority. How tall an order is it, though? Frankly, who knows? The Holyrood voting system was devised to be more proportional than Westminster's. It is a bit. But not completely. And when voting intentions are volatile and opinion is fractured, the capacity for distortion is amplified.
The majority of seats up for grabs next May are elected by first past the post. There will be at least six major parties contesting most of them, seven if Jeremy Corbyn's show gets on the road. The traditional Tory and Labour blocs will be divided by serious challengers.
In these circumstances, any party that can command north of 30% support has to be a hot favourite to win. So, a party that can get the votes of a third or more of the electorate and whose support is evenly spread could well win 65 constituency seats. They would get none off the lists but that would be a majority.
It is very unpredictable, the margins between winning and losing are small, and things could just as easily go the other way. But a majority is possible. It is, after all, just over a year since Labour won a UK General Election landslide on 34% of the vote.
More controversial is the SNP leader's claim that only if he gets a majority will this be seen as a legitimate mandate to offer Scots their independence.
Other, smaller, pro-independence parties have been outraged by the suggestion, instead advocating that all that is required is a majority of members in the Parliament elected on a commitment to self-government no matter what their party.
Actually, both have a point. It is true that if the Parliament has a pro-independence majority and votes to demand that people get a choice on the matter, then that should be respected by the UK Government.
But it is undeniably the case that any such demand will be harder to refuse if it is made by a party that has just won a clear majority. Especially if it is then bolstered by representatives from other parties.
John Swinney cites historical precedent as evidence. The only time the UK accepted that people should have the right to choose was when the SNP won a majority in 2011. They have denied it ever since, even with a pro-indy majority in the Scottish Parliament.
Salmond won a majority for the SNP in 2011 It doesn't, however, follow that they would do so again. A majority of those running the UK think Cameron made a mistake in accepting the outcome of the 2011 election as a trigger for a referendum. They are determined not to repeat it.
They are building a barricade against Scottish aspirations for independence, founded on denying the legitimacy of the Scottish Parliament to do anything about it.
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And that is where we are. In the middle of a fight for legitimacy, for relevance, for the right to self-determination. That is why we need a strategy that doesn't stop at getting people to vote for an independence party or parties, but which sets out how those elected can mobilise Scotland behind the right to choose their future.
That will require cross-party co-operation, civic engagement on a scale not seen since 2014 and stable, determined leadership in government. But there can be no question that the bigger the majority the principal party of independence has, the easier that task will be.
And no question also that the converse is true.
If the SNP are unable to form a government and a Unionist coalition triumphs, the cause of national autonomy will be gravely set back.