&w=3840&q=100)
What could move stock markets in H2 2025? Check outlook, Nifty Dec target
Sai Aravindh Mumbai
Listen to This Article
With Dalal Street preparing to end the first half of calendar year 2025 near record highs, analysts believe the strong momentum in equities may continue in the second half as well as strong macroeconomic tailwinds could overshadow global risks.
At the headline level, they anticipate the benchmark Nifty index to rise up to 6 per cent from the current levels over the next six months amid intermittent bouts of correction triggered mostly by global (tariff, oil prices, geopolitics) events.
Domestic triggers for the markets, according to G Chokkalingam, founder and chief investment officer at Equinomics Research, would include strong economic
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New Indian Express
an hour ago
- New Indian Express
Sebi bans Jane Street, impounds $566.3 million for manipulating Nifty index on expiry days
MUMBAI: The capital markets watchdog Securities Exchange Board (Sebi) has debarred the US proprietary trading firm Jane Street Capital from accessing the securities markets, and has impounded as much as $566 million for its illegal gain from manipulating the Nifty index. According to Sebi calculation, the company and its associated entities made a whopping Rs 36,671 crore in profits between January 2023 and May 2025, Sebi said in the 105-page interim order passed by the whole-time member Anantha Narayna G late last night. Of the total gain, Sebi considers as much as $566.3 million are illegal. The group's total illegal profits identified across 15 days in May 2025 was Rs 4,843 crore. Between January 2023 and March 2025, JS made Rs 44,358 crore in options, lost just Rs 7,208 crore in stock futures, lost Rs 191 crore in index futures and Rs 288 crore in cash. Overall its net profit stood at Rs 36,671 crore. What JS Group used to do was on the expiry days, it aggressively bought large amounts in BankNifty underlying stocks/futures (to the tune of Rs 4,370 crore on Jan 17, 2024 and sold this index options Rs 32,115 crore. By afternoon it aggressively sold large underlying stocks/futures worth Rs 5,372 crore. Peak short position in the index options segment was Rs 46,620 crores. Thus it made a clean profit of Rs 735 crore from index options, while its intraday loss from cash/futures was only Rs 61.6 crore. In a 105-page order issued late Thursday night and issued by whole-time member Anantha Narayan G, stated that the US trading firm's 'four entities are restrained from accessing the securities market and are further prohibited from buying, selling or otherwise dealing in securities, directly or indirectly.' The regulator also issued an interim order to impound over $566.3 million from Jane Street in alleged illegal gains and banks have been directed to ensure that 'no debits are made from accounts held by Jane Street's entities either jointly or individually, without permission of Sebi.' The four entities debarred are JS India (JS) Investments, JSI2 Investments, Jane Street Singapore, and Jane Street Asia Trading. The US trading firm allegedly used various strategies to artificially influence the benchmark Nifty 50 index to profit from significantly larger positions in index options, Sebi said in the interim order. The regulator further said repeated instances of manipulative trading continued even after an 'explicit advisory' was issued to the firm in February 2025. The Sebi had previously expressed concerns over practices such as algorithmic trading, which it said in a September 2024 report allowed proprietary traders and foreign portfolio investors to make Rs 61,000 crore in profits in FY24, while retail investors and other market participants lost heavily to the tune of Rs 1.25 lakh each the same amount during that period. Sebi said movements in underlying cash markets impacts index benchmarks, while movements in the indices impacts prices of futures and options as markets segments such as cash equities, futures, options, are interrelated. The problem gets confounded as there is much more trading volumes in the index options market than there is in the underlying stock and futures market. For example, on January 17, 2024 Bank Nifty expiry day, cash market turnover in the 12 stock constituents were Rs 29,225 crore, while futures market turnover in them were Rs 43,589 crore and the futures turnover was Rs 32,607 crore while the futures equivalent/delta equivalent turnover was a whopping Rs 1,03,17,127 crore. This means that the relative size of BankNifty options market to cash market is 353 times and the relative size of Bank Nifty options market to the total of cash and futures market and the Bank Nifty index futures turnover was 98 times on that particular day. Also, this shows that there are many more individuals and entities trading in index options market than there are in the underlying stock and futures market. For example, on January 17, 2024 the number of unique entities that traded in the cash market of all of the top three Bank Nifty constituent stocks was 752 while the number of unique entities that traded in its futures contracts was 26,593 and the number of unique entities that traded in its options contracts was a much higher 16,15,011.
Economic Times
an hour ago
- Economic Times
Vedanta's investor dilemma: Dividend king, pauper returns; time to buy or say bye?
Dividend king Vedanta's shares have languished in an extended consolidation phase, stubbornly refusing to break out despite a flurry of positive triggers — from buzz around its ambitious demerger plans and impressive operational milestones to its focused efforts on debt reduction. Over the past year, the stock has been eerily stagnant, inching up a mere 0.1% and underperforming not just the metal sector, but the broader Nifty as well. ADVERTISEMENT While investors watching from the sidelines are left wondering what will finally ignite a breakout and if it is time to buy, experts advise caution until the demerger mystery is resolved. "We would recommend the investor to buy only if the demerger takes place as it will unlock value for the shareholders," Sunny Agrawal, Head - Retail Fundamental Desk at SBI Securities told ETMarkets. The sentiments are echoed by expert Kranti Bathini who suggested a wait and watch strategy as there is a demerger overhang. The company suffered corporate governance issues in the past, he said that the stock's popularity among investors is owing to its high dividend is among the top 10 stocks with highest dividend yield. According to a note by SBI Securities, its dividend yield in FY24, FY23 and FY22 stood at 7%, 24.2% and 10.7%, respectively. Among the largecaps, Vedanta tops the chart with last 12 months yield of 7%, according to Axis Securities. ADVERTISEMENT Vedanta's price performance has been lackluster with six months returns at 2% against a 10% rally in the Nifty Metal index and 5% in the Nifty. ADVERTISEMENT Though metal stocks have picked up in H1CY25, the sector suffered heavily in H2CY24 and that may have had a sentimental impact on Vedanta shares as commodities including metals often mirror international price trends and the cyclical nature adds additional variables in the performance of metal stocks. ADVERTISEMENT Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking does not find Vedanta's current proposition attractive on charts. In the absence of any clear trend, it is best to avoid the stock for now, Jain have failed to unbolt despite a host of positive triggers such as: ADVERTISEMENT In March, Vedanta extended the deadline of the demerger of its businesses from March 31, 2025 to September 30, 2025 citing pending approvals from government authorities and National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). The mining conglomerate is looking to demerge its businesses - aluminium, oil & gas, power and steel- as separate entities. At present, these businesses are subsumed within Vedanta Ltd, which is an Indian arm of UK-based Vedanta Resources. There will be no change in the overall shareholding the demerger, every Vedanta shareholder - both retail and institutional - will receive one new share in each of the newly demerged Anil Agarwal in a letter to company shareholders had said that he envisions each of the four newly demerged companies to potentially grow into a $100 billion company. Read More: Vedanta extends demerger deadline till September 30, cites pending govt, NCLT approvals Metal major Vedanta posted strong operational performance in Q1FY26 across its portfolio. The Lanjigarh Refinery reported a record quarterly alumina production of 587 kt, marking a 9% year-on-year and a 36% quarter-on-quarter India achieved its highest-ever Q1 mined metal production at 265 kt, up 1% YoY, while Zinc International output soared 50% YoY and 12% QoQ. Ferro Chrome production surged 150% QoQ, supported by best-ever ore production, which climbed 66% QoQ. Additionally, power sales rose 11% QoQ, reflecting broad-based strength across segments. Read more: Vedanta Q1 Update: Alumina production up 9% YoY; zinc, ferro chrome hit new records The mining major had reported stellar Q4FY25 earnings posting a 154% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 3,483 crore while the revenue from operations grew 14% YoY to Rs 40,455 has been focusing on deleveraging push. CFO Ajay Goel in a company filing had said that Vedanta balance sheet deleveraged by $500 million in Q4 with a closing net Debt of $6.2 billion, enabling substantial improvement in leverage to Zinc (HZL), a key profit driver for Vedanta, plans to double its capacity to 2mt by the end of the decade from 1.1mt currently and the first step includes a 250kt zinc smelting expansion at Debari with Rs120bn capex, targeting completion in 36 months, Emkay said in a note."Positioned in the lowest quartile of the global zinc cost curve, HZ has 50% EBITDA margins. Management projects EBITDA of Rs 17,000 crore and free cash flow of Rs100bn for FY26E/27E, rising to Rs 20,000 post-expansion. HZ's steady cash flows should support a 4-5% dividend yield and fund further growth. Management remains positive on retaining mines due for re-auction in 2030 and plans to boost renewable energy share to 27% by FY26," this brokerage has taken a 'Buy' view on the counter for a price target of Rs 525. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Jane Street banned in India! How US trading entity allegedly manipulated index closing on expiry days
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has barred US-based trading firm Jane Street and three of its affiliated entities from accessing Indian securities markets, citing allegations of large-scale manipulation in the derivatives trading. The entities named in SEBI's interim order include JSI2 Investments Private Ltd, Jane Street Singapore Pte. Ltd, and Jane Street Asia Trading Ltd. SEBI has also directed the entities to deposit ₹ 4,843.5 crore — alleged to be illegal gains — into an escrow account maintained by the regulator. Additionally, a debit freeze has been imposed on their bank accounts. According to SEBI's Whole Time Member Ananth Narayan G, the Jane Street Group is alleged to have engaged in manipulative trades on at least 21 occasions involving securities forming part of the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices. 'Such actions have compromised market fairness and integrity, allowing the group to unlawfully profit from their trading activities and positions in the index options market,' the Sebi order dated 3 July 2025 said. SEBI's order outlines a recurring trading pattern allegedly used by the Jane Street entities, particularly on index expiry days. The strategy involved large-scale purchases of Bank Nifty futures and equities in the morning, paired with aggressive selling of Bank Nifty options. This would be followed by significant selling in the futures market post-noon, thereby impacting the closing level of the index. For instance, on January 17, 2024, Jane Street reportedly bought Bank Nifty futures worth ₹ 4,370 crore and sold Bank Nifty options worth ₹ 32,115 crore in the morning session. Later in the day, it sold Bank Nifty futures worth ₹ 5,372 crore. These trades resulted in a peak short position of ₹ 46,620 crore in the options segment. Jane Street allegedly booked a profit of ₹ 735 crore in options while incurring a loss of ₹ 61.6 crore in futures and cash segments, leading to a net gain of ₹ 673.4 crore on that day. SEBI also highlighted another strategy wherein Jane Street allegedly created large short positions in Bank Nifty futures and constituent stocks during the final hours of trading on expiry days to influence index closing. On July 10, 2024, the firm reportedly sold Bank Nifty futures worth ₹ 2,800 crore and created short positions in Bank Nifty options worth ₹ 44,154 crore, leading to a softer index close and a profit of ₹ 225 crore. The regulator observed a consistent pattern across multiple trading sessions, concluding that these were not routine transactions but instances of manipulation in violation of SEBI's Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices (PFUTP) regulations. Despite being aware of SEBI's ongoing investigation, Jane Street allegedly continued to deploy similar strategies. On May 15, 2025, and on two other occasions in the same month, the firm reportedly purchased Nifty futures and underlying stocks worth ₹ 4,911 crore in the final hours of trade to influence expiry-day closing levels. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
