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Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
India's equity benchmarks ease as financials retreat from record highs
India's benchmark indexes edged lower on Monday as profit-taking in financials near record highs outweighed optimism from easing geopolitical tensions and fresh foreign inflows. The Nifty 50 shed 0.19% to 25,590.45 points and the BSE Sensex fell 0.22% to 83,876.90 as of 10:14 a.m. IST. Seven of the 13 major sectors logged losses. High-weight financials, which hit a record high on Friday, lost 0.4%. The heaviest stock in the benchmark indexes HDFC Bank lost about 0.8%. Financials, metals lift Indian benchmarks to weekly gains as geopolitical, trade fears ease Meanwhile, small- and mid-cap indexes outperformed, rising 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Both the benchmarks are trading just about 2.5% below record high levels. They have gained about 3.5% in June, to take their overall rise to about 15% since the start of March. 'Many promoters, private equity funds and early foreign investors are likely booking profits as markets approach the record high levels and valuations get stretched, spurring a pause in the rally,' said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research. Other Asian markets were also subdued, while the dollar softened on bets that weaker US jobs data could prompt deeper rate cuts. Among individual stocks, Karnataka Bank tumbled 7% after the chief executive officer Srikrishnan Hari Hara Sarma resigned citing personal reasons. Executive Director Sekhar Rao also stepped down. Torrent Pharma rose about 4% before paring most of the gains. The drug maker signed definitive agreements to buy a controlling 46.4% stake in JB Chemicals from private equity firm KKR at 1,600 rupees per share, a 11% discount to JB Chemicals' Friday close. On the flipside, Alembic Pharma jumped 9.5% after getting US drug regulator's nod for an injection used to treat certain types of cancer including ovarian cancer. ITD Cementation gained 4.1% after securing a $67.4 million international marine contract.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
What could move stock markets in H2 2025? Check outlook, Nifty Dec target
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors Sai Aravindh Mumbai Listen to This Article With Dalal Street preparing to end the first half of calendar year 2025 near record highs, analysts believe the strong momentum in equities may continue in the second half as well as strong macroeconomic tailwinds could overshadow global risks. At the headline level, they anticipate the benchmark Nifty index to rise up to 6 per cent from the current levels over the next six months amid intermittent bouts of correction triggered mostly by global (tariff, oil prices, geopolitics) events. Domestic triggers for the markets, according to G Chokkalingam, founder and chief investment officer at Equinomics Research, would include strong economic
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Business Standard
23-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Israel's TA-125 at new peak even as tensions flare with US strikes on Iran
Rising tensions in West Asia have not deterred the Israeli stock market, with the benchmark index surging to record highs despite fresh concerns following US strikes on Iran. Israel's TA-125 rose 2.2 per cent on Sunday to a fresh high of 2,931.9, just after the US struck three nuclear sites in Iran. Since the beginning of the latest attacks on June 13, the index has risen nearly 7.5 per cent, while the MSCI Asia ex Japan has fallen by 0.63 per cent. In the year so far, the TA-125 index has risen 18.9 per cent, while the MSCI Asia ex Japan and MSCI World indices are up 11.2 per cent and 4.83 per cent, respectively. Over the weekend, the US struck three nuclear sites in Iran with bunker-busting bombs, ending speculation of its involvement in the ongoing conflict in the region. US President Donald Trump declared the three facilities 'totally obliterated,' and warned of greater attacks unless Iran makes peace with Israel. Following the strikes, Iran vowed to retaliate, warning the US of "dire consequences" and has reportedly approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asked about the Strait, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi said that 'a variety of options" are available to Iran, adding that the country would defend itself by all means necessary. Why is Israeli stock market surging? The market is rising as investors and global markets bet on a contained conflict and limited escalation following the US strikes on Iran, according to analysts. There was initial concern that oil prices would spike and Asian markets would open sharply lower. However, that didn't happen, according to G Chokkalingam, founder and chief investment officer at Equinomics Research. He believes this indicates that both the equity and oil markets expect the situation to de-escalate, possibly leading to negotiations rather than a broader conflict. Regarding the Israeli market, its total market capitalisation is only around $429 billion, with equities accounting for $216 billion, Chokkalingam said. "This means even small domestic or foreign inflows can significantly impact the index." Additionally, confidence may stem from the US backing of Israel, which reassures investors that the economic impact will be limited, Chokkalingam said. "Unlike during the Ukraine war, when oil jumped nearly 30 per cent, the Israel-Iran conflict has caused only an 11 per cent rise in oil prices, reinforcing the belief that the war may remain localised and short-lived." Further, it is a preconceived notion that geopolitical tensions may lead to stock market corrections, analysts had noted earlier. "In fact, heightened geopolitical tensions can lead to more fiscal and monetary easing, and the market loves loose policies," according to Jitendra Gohil, chief investment strategist at Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. Back home, stock markets fell over 1 per cent in early trade, tracking cues from their Asian peers. As of 12:40 PM, the BSE Sensex index was at 81,828.57, lower by 575.47 points or 0.70 per cent, while the Nifty50 was at 24,942.95, down 169.45 points or 0.67 per cent.
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Business Standard
17-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Are high oil prices always bad for market sentiment? No, suggests data
High oil prices do not always dampen market sentiment, suggests data. Back in fiscal year 2012 (FY12) when Brent crude oil prices shot up 32 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to $115 a barrel (bbl), the Nifty 50 index had tanked 9.2 per cent. Even with oil prices ruling at $110 and $108/bbl in FY13 and FY14 respectively, the Nifty 50 managed to post a gain of 7.3 per cent and 18 per cent in each of these two fiscal years, data shows. GDP (gross domestic product) growth grew at a healthy clip of 5.5 per cent (in FY13) and at 6.4 per cent (FY14) back then. Triple-digit crude oil prices, said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, were common between 2007 and 2014. Things, he said, changed from 2014 onwards as the US increased production and shale gas came into play. China, too, shifted focus on services rather than solely manufacturing, which calmed oil markets. 'There were some structural changes. Alternate sources of energy such as solar and wind also took centre-stage besides crude oil post 2013-14. Oil and stock markets had started to discount higher shares of these two sources back then. A higher oil price is not always bad for the market sentiment, unless they run away too fast, too soon and stay elevated for a long period of time,' Chokkalingam said. In FY22 as well, the Nifty50 index moved up around 19 per cent when crude oil prices averaged $81/bbl during the fiscal year, up 81 per cent as compared to FY21. Even with a rise (crude oil price) of around 19 per cent the following year to an average of $96/bbl, the fall in the Nifty50 index in FY23 was a modest 0.6 per cent. Dangerous complacency That said, global stock markets, said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a global consulting firm managing nearly $12 billion in assets under management (AUM), are showing a 'dangerous complacency' in response to the sharp escalation of military conflict between Iran and Israel. 'This isn't resilience, it's a mispricing of risk. Investors are leaning into a narrative that no longer fits the facts.' 'Gold and oil are reacting appropriately to heightened geopolitical risk. Equities are not. Volatility remains artificially low. That divergence should concern every serious investor,' he cautions. Israel's recent counterstrikes mark a significant intensification, targeting infrastructure inside Iran—a move seen by many as a shift away from proxy warfare and toward direct state conflict. The risks to global energy markets, analysts said, are growing. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran could disrupt, carries roughly 17 million barrels of oil per day—nearly 20% of global supply. If the conflict persists, some even see oil prices hitting $150/bbl in the worst-case scenario. "Even the threat of closure or interference would likely push oil well beyond $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation and altering the current trajectory of interest rate policy in developed economies. If energy prices rise sharply from here, that disinflation story evaporates. Rate cuts could stall. Market momentum could reverse,' Green said.
Mint
16-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Indian shares muted as Middle East conflict dents sentiment
(Updates for morning trade) June 16 (Reuters) - India's benchmark indexes were muted on Monday, pausing after two straight sessions of losses as the conflict between Israel and Iran showed no signs of cooling, keeping investors wary and adding to geopolitical uncertainty around the world. The Nifty 50 was up 0.18% at 24,764.4 and the BSE Sensex rose 0.15% to 81,245.5, as of 10:12 a.m. IST. They rose about 0.4% each in early trade, before paring gains. Nine of the 13 major sectors logged losses. The smallcaps and midcaps lost about 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Both the benchmarks posted weekly losses on Friday as Israel's military strikes on Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, both sides launched fresh attacks, raising geopolitical concerns. Crude prices climbed amid concerns over supply disruptions in the oil-rich Middle East. Higher oil prices are a negative for India, which imports the bulk of its energy needs. "The key risk for Indian equities is the Israel-Iran conflict. Any sustained rise in crude will hurt macro stability," said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research of Equinomics Research. Other Asian markets were also muted, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index trading flat. Among individual stocks, Tata Motors fell 5.4% after projecting fiscal 2026 operating margins of 5%-7%, below its earlier 10% target for its luxury unit JLR. Tata Motors was the top loser in the Nifty 50 index and also dragged the auto index 1% lower. HDFC Asset Management Company slipped 2% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "overweight", citing limited near-term catalysts following a 33% rally over the past three months. Airline operator SpiceJet gained 3% after its March-quarter net profit doubled year-on-year. Oil explorers such as ONGC and Oil India rose 0.5% and 1.5% respectively, as higher crude prices lifted realisation prospects. ($1 = 86.0810 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Rashmi Aich)
