With Trump's Big Beautiful Bill passed, US debt could hit $40 trillion in 2025 — here's why that matters
$36.2 trillion
, and with the recent passage of President Trump's ambitious '
Big Beautiful Bill
,' fiscal analysts warn that the total could climb to
$40 trillion by the end of 2025
. This staggering projection is sparking concern across Wall Street, Washington, and beyond — not only because of the eye-popping number, but also due to what it signals for America's financial future.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill could add $3 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years. As the conversation heats up in Washington and beyond, many are wondering: how did we get here, and what's next for the country's finances?
How big is the U.S. national debt in 2025?
As of July 3, 2025, the U.S. national debt stands at $36.2 trillion. That figure represents the total amount the federal government has borrowed throughout its history—from financing the American Revolutionary War to funding emergency COVID-19 relief packages and more recent spending bills.
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This debt is made up of two main parts: debt held by the public, which includes investors and foreign governments buying U.S. Treasury securities, and intragovernmental holdings, which are debts the government owes to itself through various trust funds like Social Security.
Why could the debt hit $40 trillion this year?
Even before this bill passed, the U.S. was on track to rack up over $1.5 trillion in deficits for fiscal 2025. But now, independent projections — including from the CBO and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) — estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill could add $2.4–$3.3 trillion over the next decade. A chunk of that hits immediately in the form of tax revenue losses and front-loaded spending.
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What makes this so concerning?
Interest payments are exploding
: The government now spends
more on interest than on defense
. In FY2024, interest costs hit
$1.1 trillion
— and they're rising fast.
No revenue offsets
: The bill includes no new taxes or spending cuts that realistically pay for its provisions.
Assumes high economic growth
: The bill's architects say GDP growth will 'pay for itself,' but most economists say that's overly optimistic.
Debt ceiling risks
: This fast-rising debt could provoke another standoff in Congress over borrowing limits, causing instability in markets.
What is the 'Big Beautiful Bill' and why is it raising debt concerns?
President Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' is a key legislative package aimed at tax cuts, infrastructure projects, and expanding defense funding. While it has energized some sectors of the economy, experts warn that it comes with a heavy price tag.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill could increase the national debt by $3 trillion over the next decade. That would come on top of the already high interest payments the government is making each year.
In 2024 alone, the U.S. government spent over $1.1 trillion just on interest payments—marking the first time in history that interest spending surpassed military expenditures.
Here's what's included:
Extended Trump-era tax cuts
: Permanently locks in individual and corporate tax breaks from 2017.
New deductions
: Includes deductions for tipped workers, auto loan interest, overtime, and dramatically raises the SALT deduction cap.
Massive spending
: Pours hundreds of billions into military expansion (including Trump's 'Golden Dome' missile shield), border security, and law enforcement.
Deep cuts to safety nets
: Shrinks Medicaid, SNAP (food stamps), and Obamacare subsidies — leading experts warn that up to 12 million people could lose coverage or benefits.
Rollbacks on green energy
: Eliminates several clean energy incentives and halts new solar/wind subsidies.
Why does the U.S. borrow so much money?
The federal government borrows money whenever its spending exceeds its revenue. To fund things like Social Security, Medicare, military operations, and now programs under the Big Beautiful Bill, the Treasury issues Treasury bonds, notes, and bills to both domestic and foreign investors.
Over the years, major events like the 2008 financial crisis, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the COVID-19 pandemic have driven spending far beyond revenue levels. And with tax cuts included in the new bill, revenue may shrink even more in the coming years—forcing the U.S. to borrow even more.
How much is the U.S. paying in interest, and why does it matter?
In 2024, the federal government spent $1.1 trillion on interest payments alone. That means more than 14% of all federal spending went to paying just the interest on existing debt, not even the debt itself.
This level of interest spending is concerning because it limits the government's flexibility to invest in important programs like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Plus, rising interest rates only make it more expensive to borrow in the future, deepening the debt spiral.
What happens if the debt keeps rising?
If the national debt continues to grow unchecked, it could lead to several serious outcomes:
Higher interest rates: As investors demand better returns on riskier U.S. debt.
Weaker U.S. dollar: Making imports more expensive.
Less room for public investment: As more of the budget is eaten up by interest payments.
Reduced investor confidence: If the U.S. is seen as fiscally unstable, it could cause global market shifts.
Economists are divided. Some argue the U.S. can handle high debt levels as long as growth continues. Others warn that failing to control borrowing could trigger financial instability and inflation in the long run.
Can the U.S. reduce its national debt—and how?
To reduce the national debt, the government needs to either increase revenue, cut spending, or a mix of both. That might mean raising taxes, reducing entitlement programs, or curbing defense and infrastructure budgets. However, such decisions are politically sensitive and often delayed.
Some economists suggest economic growth is the best path forward. A booming economy can generate more tax revenue without raising rates, making it easier to pay down debt.
But with new expenses from the Big Beautiful Bill, that path just got a lot steeper.
Why it matters for everyday Americans
Rising national debt isn't just a number on a government spreadsheet — it has real-world consequences:
Higher borrowing costs
: As the government borrows more, interest rates can rise, pushing up mortgage rates, credit card APRs, and student loan costs.
Risk to social programs
: The growing cost of servicing debt could force future cuts to Medicare, Social Security, or public infrastructure.
Economic vulnerability
: A sudden debt crisis — sparked by market fear, interest rate spikes, or political dysfunction — could trigger recession-like conditions.
Even some conservatives are uneasy. Republican Senator Ron Johnson recently warned the bill could 'increase the deficit by $24 trillion' over a decade, far more than public estimates, and accused fellow lawmakers of using 'fantasy math' to justify the costs.
What should Americans watch next?
With the U.S. national debt now at $36.2 trillion and projected to grow further, it's clear that the financial direction of the country is at a crossroads. As President Trump continues to push his second-term agenda, voters, investors, and economists alike will be watching the numbers closely.
One thing is certain: the choices made in Washington over the next few years will have long-term consequences on the economy, public services, and the lives of millions of Americans.
FAQs:
Q1: How much is the U.S. national debt in 2025?
As of July 3, 2025, it's $36.2 trillion.
Q2: What is Trump's Big Beautiful Bill doing to the debt?
It may add $3 trillion over 10 years, says the CBO.
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