Trump this time is trying to help GOP avoid messy primary fights
Trump recently waded into both Michigan's Senate race and the New York gubernatorial contest in an effort to convince notable candidates — Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) and Rep. Mike Lawler (R), respectively — to opt out of the contests. In both cases, the candidates bowed to pressure.
The president's moves underscore how Republicans are already seeking to coalesce around candidates in some of next year's most high-profile races, as they look to buck historical trends that suggest the president's party will lose congressional seats and other contests.
'He's clearly far more involved in this round than he was in 2017 and 2018 but at the same time it's a totally different situation,' one national Republican operative said of Trump.
The different situation is the narrow House GOP majority. It leaves Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) dealing with very tight margins on crucial votes.
The president's political operation is effectively being led by Chris LaCivita, a Republican operative who served as co-campaign manager on Trump's 2024 presidential bid.
One source close to the White House said Trump and his team would like to avoid messy, drawn-out GOP primaries in state-wide races that could damage candidates for the general election or divide the resources and attention of Republicans.
The source pointed to the contentious Pennsylvania Senate primary in 2022 between now-Sen. Dave McCormick and Mehmet Oz, who prevailed in the primary but lost in the general election.
Trump spoke directly with Huizenga earlier this month and urged him not to launch a Senate bid, a source familiar with the meeting confirmed to The Hill. NOTUS first reported that Trump had directly asked Huizenga to stay out of the race, effectively clearing the field for former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), whom Trump endorsed Thursday.
In North Carolina, Trump is backing Michael Whatley, who is expected in the coming days to announce his campaign to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). The source said Whatley would not have entered the race without Trump's blessing to leave his position at the Republican National Committee.
'They're also at the same time trying to do a balancing act where they want to be supportive of people who have been loyal to the president and drive who and what they think is in their best interest,' the national Republican strategist said.
The strategist said those two criteria are 'not a perfect match,' pointing to Trump's backing of Whatley. The strategist argued that a candidate like Whatley is a riskier bet in the swing state.
'He essentially sacrificed Tillis who was a much safer bet than Lara Trump would have been or Whatley today,' the strategist said. 'If I were drawing a map, I would shade North Carolina in light blue.'
Other Republicans push back on the notion, pointing to Whatley's deep ties to the state's grassroots from his history as chair of the North Carolina GOP.
'No polling has indicated that Thom Tillis was going to be a better candidate than a pro-Trump Republican,' said a second national Republican operative, noting that Trump has won North Carolina three times in the past.
Republicans are also seeking to put a bow on Georgia's GOP Senate primary as the party looks to oust Sen. Jon Ossoff, arguably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for reelection in the upper chamber.
One other race to watch for Trump's influence is the Kentucky Senate campaign to replace outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R). Trump has so far not weighed in as multiple Republicans have announced their candidacies.
In Georgia, Fox News reported Friday that Trump's political operation and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's (R) had butted heads over their preferred candidates, with Kemp pushing former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley.
Businessman Nate Morris has been building his pro-Trump resume. He announced his candidacy on Donald Trump Jr.'s podcast and has already scored endorsements from Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk and Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), both staunch Trump allies. Morris is also close with Vice President Vance.
Trump also has not waded into the Texas Republican Senate primary, where state Attorney General Ken Paxton is taking on incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Both Republicans are considered Trump allies, with Paxton being popular with the president's base and Cornyn a key GOP voice in the Senate. Most polls show Paxton with a considerable lead over Cornyn, but hypothetical general election polling shows Cornyn performing better than Paxton against Democratic candidates.
Last week Cornyn said Trump has relayed to him that he is not ready to endorse in the race.
Democrats argue that their chances at flipping Texas at the Senate level are boosted with a Paxton nomination.
'Paxton can't win a general but Cornyn probably can't win a primary,' the GOP strategist said. 'There's very complicating factors, but I think they're trying to balance their MAGA loyalties with the practicalities of making sure they keep the Senate comfortably and try to find a map that gives them a House majority that includes redistricting.'
Redistricting has become a major topic of conversation in national political circles as Texas Republicans pursue redistricting ahead of the midterms.
Trump spoke earlier this month with Texas Republicans, where he urged leaders in the state to redraw congressional maps to boost the GOP. The president has also made clear he would support other red states doing the same.
'Just a very simple redrawing, we pick up five seats,' Trump said of Texas. 'But we have a couple of other states where we'll pick up seats also.'
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) floated 'middecade' redistricting to reporters Thursday, noting that he has spoken to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the matter.
'They said they were going to redo the count in time for 2026,' the governor said, referring to the census. 'They would have to do that relatively soon because you need time to draw maps and you need time to get that done.'
Population shifts in states like Florida could benefit House Republicans, particularly in south Florida, where Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Jared Moskowitz and Lois Frankel could be negatively impacted.
'Any advantage you can get the better,' the GOP strategist noted. 'That gives you a lot of breathing room even if you lose some tough races.'
Trump's poll numbers have wavered in recent surveys, a result largely attributable to independents souring on his handling of key issues like the economy and immigration. But Trump allies argued the president's endorsement is still a make-or-break factor in primaries because of his enduring popularity within the party.
'His numbers are stronger than ever before with the Republican base,' one Trump ally said. 'Republican voters are happier with him now than ever before.'
The second national Republican operative called Trump's popularity 'a huge asset' in the midterms.
'If you are trying to run a campaign that wants to win you need to replicate the pro Trump coalition,' the operative said, referring to the president's general election win last year.
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