On thin ice: Why this legendary Dutch skating race may never happen again
From the Alaskan Iditarod to the Winter Olympics, climate change has put many winter sporting traditions at risk. While some have managed to adapt to rising temperatures and unpredictable snowfall, a time-honoured Dutch tradition may be gliding toward extinction.
The Elfstedentocht – or 'Eleven Cities Tour' – is a legendary 200-kilometre ice-skating race and leisure tour that winds through naturally frozen canals in the northern Friesland region of the Netherlands.
But 2025 will mark 28 years since the last event was held. According to new climate research, the odds of it happening again are shrinking fast.
A once-every-four-years tradition may now only happen once a generation
The Elfstedentocht requires perfect conditions to take place. It must be
cold
enough, for long enough, for the ice to become 15 centimetres thick along the entire course so that it can accommodate the pressure of the 15,000 amateur skaters who join the event.
For that thick, stable
ice
to form, there must be at least 15 consecutive days of sub-4.2 °C weather – combined with dry conditions.
In the 20th century, an Elfstedentocht could be expected every four to five years. According to a new study published in Climate Change, the Elfstedentocht might now take place just once every 32 years.
Related
Pumped up pollen: How climate change could be making your seasonal allergies worse
Deadly floods, storms and heatwaves: Europe suffered the 'serious impacts' of climate change in 2024
Hans Visser and Arthur Petersen, two researchers who worked with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on this study, warn that a
warming planet
wreaking havoc on weather patterns has made the ideal conditions increasingly elusive.
A cultural icon on thin ice
Since its official founding in 1909, the Elfstedentocht has only been held 15 times, with the most recent in 1997. In the decades since, there have been several 'close calls,' including a near-run in 2012, but the
canals
were never quite
frozen
enough.
'We still have the occasional outlier. Like in 2012, when it almost came to an Elfstedentocht,' Hylke de Vries of the KNMI told de Volkskrant.
'But then the winter in the weeks before hadn't been very cold, and the water was still relatively warm. Then it takes a few extra days for everything to freeze over. Snowfall can also lead to ice, but the ice doesn't get thicker quickly.'
Other models using different forecasting techniques are slightly more
optimistic
about the Elfstedentocht. The KNMI estimates that optimal conditions might occur once every 14 years.
Related
Electric cars, leaky homes, and food: How does France plan to get emissions cuts back on track?
Lego says new factory in Vietnam will make toys without without adding emissions to the atmosphere
But researchers agree on one thing: without significant cuts to
greenhouse gas
emissions, the Elfstedentocht may become a relic of the past.
If
emissions
are drastically reduced, the chance of an Elfstedentocht will remain approximately the same as now in the decades to come. If emissions increase, there may not be another Elfstedentocht after the end of this century, according to the study.
'The chances of [proper conditions] decrease with global warming, no matter how you calculate that chance,' said de Vries.
Winter sports everywhere are under threat
The Netherlands is far from alone with the wintry disruptions it faces. Across Europe and beyond,
winter sports
have become increasingly vulnerable to climate change.
ADVERTISEMENT
A 2024 report by the World Meteorological Organization found that only 10 countries will have a
climate-reliable
outlook for snow sport events by 2040.
Activists have also drawn attention to how ski resorts and sporting events are contributing to the problem, not just suffering from it.
Last year, a group calculated that Audi's
sponsorship
of the Ski World Cup would contribute 103,000-144,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions to highlight environmental contradictions.
Meanwhile, alpine regions are investing heavily in
artificial snow
– a money-, energy- and water-intensive process – and other infrastructure improvements to maintain ski seasons.
ADVERTISEMENT
But for events like the Elfstedentocht, there's no artificial fix. It's natural ice or nothing.
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On thin ice: Why this legendary Dutch skating race may never happen again
ADVERTISEMENT From the Alaskan Iditarod to the Winter Olympics, climate change has put many winter sporting traditions at risk. While some have managed to adapt to rising temperatures and unpredictable snowfall, a time-honoured Dutch tradition may be gliding toward extinction. The Elfstedentocht – or 'Eleven Cities Tour' – is a legendary 200-kilometre ice-skating race and leisure tour that winds through naturally frozen canals in the northern Friesland region of the Netherlands. But 2025 will mark 28 years since the last event was held. According to new climate research, the odds of it happening again are shrinking fast. A once-every-four-years tradition may now only happen once a generation The Elfstedentocht requires perfect conditions to take place. It must be cold enough, for long enough, for the ice to become 15 centimetres thick along the entire course so that it can accommodate the pressure of the 15,000 amateur skaters who join the event. For that thick, stable ice to form, there must be at least 15 consecutive days of sub-4.2 °C weather – combined with dry conditions. In the 20th century, an Elfstedentocht could be expected every four to five years. According to a new study published in Climate Change, the Elfstedentocht might now take place just once every 32 years. Related Pumped up pollen: How climate change could be making your seasonal allergies worse Deadly floods, storms and heatwaves: Europe suffered the 'serious impacts' of climate change in 2024 Hans Visser and Arthur Petersen, two researchers who worked with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on this study, warn that a warming planet wreaking havoc on weather patterns has made the ideal conditions increasingly elusive. A cultural icon on thin ice Since its official founding in 1909, the Elfstedentocht has only been held 15 times, with the most recent in 1997. In the decades since, there have been several 'close calls,' including a near-run in 2012, but the canals were never quite frozen enough. 'We still have the occasional outlier. Like in 2012, when it almost came to an Elfstedentocht,' Hylke de Vries of the KNMI told de Volkskrant. 'But then the winter in the weeks before hadn't been very cold, and the water was still relatively warm. Then it takes a few extra days for everything to freeze over. Snowfall can also lead to ice, but the ice doesn't get thicker quickly.' Other models using different forecasting techniques are slightly more optimistic about the Elfstedentocht. The KNMI estimates that optimal conditions might occur once every 14 years. Related Electric cars, leaky homes, and food: How does France plan to get emissions cuts back on track? Lego says new factory in Vietnam will make toys without without adding emissions to the atmosphere But researchers agree on one thing: without significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the Elfstedentocht may become a relic of the past. If emissions are drastically reduced, the chance of an Elfstedentocht will remain approximately the same as now in the decades to come. If emissions increase, there may not be another Elfstedentocht after the end of this century, according to the study. 'The chances of [proper conditions] decrease with global warming, no matter how you calculate that chance,' said de Vries. Winter sports everywhere are under threat The Netherlands is far from alone with the wintry disruptions it faces. Across Europe and beyond, winter sports have become increasingly vulnerable to climate change. ADVERTISEMENT A 2024 report by the World Meteorological Organization found that only 10 countries will have a climate-reliable outlook for snow sport events by 2040. Activists have also drawn attention to how ski resorts and sporting events are contributing to the problem, not just suffering from it. Last year, a group calculated that Audi's sponsorship of the Ski World Cup would contribute 103,000-144,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions to highlight environmental contradictions. Meanwhile, alpine regions are investing heavily in artificial snow – a money-, energy- and water-intensive process – and other infrastructure improvements to maintain ski seasons. ADVERTISEMENT But for events like the Elfstedentocht, there's no artificial fix. It's natural ice or nothing.
