When will AI start impacting labor data?
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You talk about that productivity growth and one of the questions that we've had for several jobs readings now, perhaps for the perhaps for a couple dozen is where we might see AI start to show up within that productivity growth as well.
Yeah, that's kind of a big, you know, even economists, even really smart economists have got this huge range of outcomes, right? The current Nobel laureates close to zero for the effective AI on growth. Some of the more, um, you know, bullish guys on the street are one and a half percent increase in growth over five years. Some of the, you know, the IMF, OECD are in the middle. We just don't know. We know it's positive. We don't know when it's going to show up in the data and for how long it's going to last. But it's got some, it's got some potential. I wouldn't be watching kind of the month to month, you know, labor market data to see if we're going to see AI. I think it's just a longer term kind of trend thing, but definitely positive.
Even if positive for productivity, is it still positive for overall headline jobs growth?
Yeah. Well, that's the thing, you know, you can get, you can have productivity go up by hiring fewer people or expanding the pie and hiring more people. So that's the big thing with the AI. Productivity is going to go up, but is it labor enhancing or labor substituting? It's probably going to be a little bit of both. We're going to have to tease those out. But again, that's a multi-year thing. That's not a 20. We're not going to know the answer to that by the end of 2025, right?
Look, we we just want to know all the answers all the time.
I know. That's that's why we're I'm sorry to disappoint you, but great to have you here. Never disappointment at all here. Thanks you so much for joining us in the studio.
Great to have you. Never disappointment at all here. Thank you so much for joining us in the studio.
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