Latest news with #PaulGruenwald
Yahoo
05-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How big of a risk is stagflation right now?
S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald and Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick sit down with Market catalysts host Brad Smith to discuss the current risk of stagflation and the factors that could be mitigating the risk. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Why is stagflation now one of the core worries for the Fed and to what extent are we placing probability around the reality of stagflation playing out? Yeah, we're not really in the stagflation camp. We are going to get a rise in inflation rates because the tariffs are going to lift the price level, but that's not really a driving force on inflation higher. So I think we're still in this kind of traditional world. The signals are very noisy, right? Because you are going to get a rise in inflation and a rise in unemployment, and that's kind of stagflation. But we think we're going to look through and the Fed's probably going to look through the jumps from the tariffs versus any underlying inflation trends. We still think the next rates down. How can investors position their portfolio? If we did see stagflation play out, what are the perhaps the stagflation positioning in a portfolio? Stagflation is kind of like the worst of all scenarios. No, I'm I'm I'm with Paul. I I think technically, if you're looking at higher at higher prices and a slowing and a stagnant economy, that's stagflation. But I think when the term gets thrown around, we're we're nowhere close to what true like 70 style stagflation is. Correct me. Can I jump in on the back of that? And the other thing we're seeing now, the positive thing that we didn't see in the 70s is productivity growth. Remember, the last couple of years US has been hitting the ball out of the park relative to the rest of its peer group, strong productivity growth, strong new business formation. So that's not a recipe for sort of supply side, you know, weakness. That's really a stagflation issue. So I don't think that's really on the table right now. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
When will AI start impacting labor data?
S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald and Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick sit down with Market catalysts host Brad Smith to weigh in on when and how the impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) will start showing up in labor market data. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. You talk about that productivity growth and one of the questions that we've had for several jobs readings now, perhaps for the perhaps for a couple dozen is where we might see AI start to show up within that productivity growth as well. Yeah, that's kind of a big, you know, even economists, even really smart economists have got this huge range of outcomes, right? The current Nobel laureates close to zero for the effective AI on growth. Some of the more, um, you know, bullish guys on the street are one and a half percent increase in growth over five years. Some of the, you know, the IMF, OECD are in the middle. We just don't know. We know it's positive. We don't know when it's going to show up in the data and for how long it's going to last. But it's got some, it's got some potential. I wouldn't be watching kind of the month to month, you know, labor market data to see if we're going to see AI. I think it's just a longer term kind of trend thing, but definitely positive. Even if positive for productivity, is it still positive for overall headline jobs growth? Yeah. Well, that's the thing, you know, you can get, you can have productivity go up by hiring fewer people or expanding the pie and hiring more people. So that's the big thing with the AI. Productivity is going to go up, but is it labor enhancing or labor substituting? It's probably going to be a little bit of both. We're going to have to tease those out. But again, that's a multi-year thing. That's not a 20. We're not going to know the answer to that by the end of 2025, right? Look, we we just want to know all the answers all the time. I know. That's that's why we're I'm sorry to disappoint you, but great to have you here. Never disappointment at all here. Thanks you so much for joining us in the studio. Great to have you. Never disappointment at all here. Thank you so much for joining us in the studio.
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
When will AI start impacting labor data?
S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald and Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick sit down with Market catalysts host Brad Smith to weigh in on when and how the impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) will start showing up in labor market data. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New economic data suggests July is 'too early' for Fed rate cut
Economic data released on Tuesday showed the US economy added more job openings than economists' estimates, while the manufacturing sector contracted less significantly than expected. The fresh data comes as President Trump urges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. S&P Global Ratings global chief economist, Paul Gruenwald, sits down with Brad Smith and Interactive Brokers chief strategist, Steve Sosnick, to take a closer look at the economic data and what it signals about the US economy and the Fed's next move. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Well, job openings increasing unexpectedly in May, rising to a six-month high at nearly 7.8 million openings, suggesting more confidence in the labor market ahead of Thursday's jobs report, while US manufacturing remains somewhat sluggish in June, suggesting President Trump's tariffs are having an impact on business. Manufacturing PMI rising to 49. So, some improvement from the prior month, but we're still seeing that gauge below the 50 mark indicating contradiction. So, or contraction, rather. So, here to discuss what it all means for the US economy, we've got Paul Gruenwald, who's the S&P Global Ratings Global Chief Economist. Thank you so much for joining us. Good to be back. Absolutely. Also with us for the conversation, we still have Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers. So, as we really think through the data that we've seen come through and whether or not it's starting to line up in a trend fashion that would then pivot the Fed or at least get them firmly into cut camp, are we close, or how many data points away from making that trend are we in your view? Yeah, we think July's probably too early for the Fed to make its next cut. They'd have to see, you know, some bad employment numbers and then some weaker inflation numbers. And you know, our baseline's still got this gradual slowdown in the US this year, but we don't think they're going to be ready to flip the switch in July, at least what we've seen in the last couple of months. But as this morning's data show, we're still a little bit in this bouncy area where things are a bit all over the place. So Steve, does that set us up for September then? It could, assuming that, assuming that we know what's going on in terms of tariffs and we know what the budget effects of the deal are going to be. Um, it sounds like certain members of the board are a little trigger happy, others are not. Paul seems not to be. Bostic's not voting, I think, at this time, but he seems not to be. So there's, there's mixed commentary. Again, as I mentioned, the market tends to get ahead of the Fed a bit. Um, but you know, I'll leave, I'll leave the real underlying economics to Paul. And when we think about those underlying economics right now, where is the Fed seeing the most area of concern at, at this juncture, especially as they're hearing from everyone from President Trump chirping at Fed chair Jerome Powell all the way through to some of the major investment institutions that are saying, okay, yeah, now we're starting to think that they should be cutting. Yeah, well the, the big issue is the uncertainty. It's not, as we've said, it's not really the tariffs themselves, those are a negative issue, but it's really all the uncertainty around tariffs. We've got another date coming up on July 9th, which is the pause on the April 2nd tariffs, and we just don't know what's going on. When people don't know what they're going on, they slow down investment, they slow down spending, they slow down capital allocation, they slow down M&A. So we've still got this overhang on the market and we'll see what happens on July 9th. We heard some noise about Japan this morning, but uh, you know, as long as that overhang is there, we still think we've got a sort of dampened, dampened sentiment everywhere basically. You know, I want to stick with you for a second, Paul, because I was taking a look at one of the notes from Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok this week, and it said when FOMC members produce their forecasts ahead of Fed meetings, they are also asked how they view the risks to inflation and unemployment, and one of the net takeaways that this is a Fed that is worried about stagflation right now. Why is stagflation now one of the core worries for the Fed? And to, to what extent are we placing probability around the reality of stagflation playing out? Yeah, we're not really in the stagflation camp. We are going to get a rise in inflation rates because the tariffs are going to lift the price level, but that's not really a driving force on inflation higher. So I think we're still in this kind of traditional world. The signals are very noisy, right? Because you are going to get a rise in inflation and a rise in unemployment, and that's kind of stagflation. But we think we're going to look through, and the Fed's probably going to look through the jumps from the tariff versus any underlying inflation trends. We still think the next rate's down. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNA
26-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
Boost household spending to rebalance China's economy: Economist
S&P Global Ratings Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald argues that boosting household purchasing power in China is essential to rebalancing Asia's top economy so that it can achieve its ambitious growth targets.
