Beyond faith: Why Dalai Lama's reincarnation is a geopolitical tussle & not just about Tibet

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21 hours ago

With the announcement of his reincarnation ahead of his 90th birthday, the Dalai Lama made it clear that Tibetans will not bow to China. The Dalai Lama's reincarnation is not just a matter of faith but it is a geopolitical contest that goes far beyond Tibet to the roots of the Communist China's expansionism and the Dalai Lama is at the vanguard to challenge it. read more
For decades, China has sought to delegitimise a religious leader in exile, undermine his centuries-old institution, and harass his followers. That exiled leader, the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet, has turned 90 today and millions are celebrating his life in defiance of China's decadeslong campaign.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi led tributes to the Tibean leader, saying the Dalai Lama 'has been an enduring symbol of love, compassion, patience and moral discipline' and that 'his message has inspired respect and admiration across all faiths. We pray for his continued good health and long life.'
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In a much-awaited announcement, the Tibetan leader said earlier this week that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue after him and only Tibetans entrusted by him will have the right to recognise his reincarnation.
In a quick response, China said it had the sole right in the matter and warned India against any support to the Dalai Lama — setting the stage for a confrontation.
For an atheist regime to claim ownership of religious affairs predating its communist ideology by centuries would appear extraordinary, but neither Tibet nor the Dalai Lama are mere territorial or religious issues for China. These issues are central to the geopolitical contest that it began soon after it came to power in 1949.
Tibet remains the historical and geopolitical basis of the India-China conflict even if modern discourse often obscures it, says Eerishika Pankaj, the Director of the Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA).
China claims Tibet to be a part of China and further claims Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh to be parts of Tibet — and India-China territorial disputes is therefore rooted in China's claims on Tibet.
'The very transformation of India's northern boundary from a cultural frontier with Tibet to a militarised border with China traces directly to the Chinese annexation of Tibet in 1950. China's claim over Arunachal Pradesh as 'South Tibet' is not a standalone territorial assertion but part of a broader narrative of Tibetan territorial unity under Beijing's sovereignty,' says Pankaj.
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Dalai Lama lays bare China's lies & expansionist agenda — and that rattles China
One of the first things that Chinese leader Mao Zedong did after winning the Chinese Civil War (1945-49) and establishing the People's Republic of China (PRC) was to order the invasion and subjugation of Tibet.
Mao claimed that Tibet had always been a part of China and it needed 'liberation' from the Dalai Lama's rule — who had ruled for centuries. Therein lies the root of the Tibet-China conflict and the Chinese disdain for the Dalai Lama and his movement.
While Tibetans say that they were always independent, China claims Tibet was always a part of China. The reality is more nuanced than that but not for China that has rewritten history to claim ownership of Tibet and justify its invasion.
China cannot tolerate the Dalai Lama as he does not toe its line and has been laying bare before the world China's excesses for decades, says Prof. Tej Pratap Singh, a scholar of China at the Department of Political Science, Banaras Hindu University (BHU).
'A successor recognised by Tibetans in exile, as the Dalai Lama announced this week, is bound to be anti-China and is bound to deny legitimacy to the Chinese rule in Tibet and any territorial claims on Indian land that arise from Chinese rule. That would be unacceptable to China,' says Singh.
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While China has portrayed itself as the utopia that brought millions out of poverty and become the world's manufacturing hub, the Dalai Lama and his Tibetan movement have been laying bare before the world that it has not just deprived basic religious and cultural rights to an entire population but has also systematically destroyed their monasteries, cracked down on the teaching and usage of their language, and even broken up their region — the present-day Tibet province under Chinese rule is less than half of the historical Tibet.
At its core, China cannot tolerate the Dalai Lama as he keeps the story alive that the basis of Chinese control of Tibet is false, says Jigme Yeshe Lama, a scholar of Tibet at the Department of Political Science, University of Calcutta.
In the 13th century, when Mongols ruled China, the rulers established a 'priest-patron relationship' with Tibetan religious leaders wherein Tibetan lamas provided religious teaching and guidance and Chinese rulers extended patronag, says Lama.
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Lama says, 'Terms like 'sovereignty', 'suzerainty', or 'autonomy' are Western concepts that do not accurately describe the historical Tibet-China relationship. The relationship was unique that evolved over centuries. Tibet was always autonomous but rulers in Beijing often notionally counted it as a part of their empire because of their patronage, but they never 'controlled' Tibet as the Communist Party now claims. If they really controlled Tibet, the Qing dynasty would not have invaded eastern Tibet in 1905 and Lhasa in 1910, forcing the 13th Dalai Lama to flee to India where he remained until his return in 1912.'
In 1905, Viceroy George Curzon of British India said that Chinese suzerainty over Tibet was 'constitutional fiction' and practically non-existing after a British military expedition (1903-04) into Tibet returned.
The stage is set for geopolitical games — and India has to be ready
For years, the Dalai Lama had floated the possibility that the institution could end with him and that would have denied China an opportunity to appoint its own Dalai Lama.
While the cessation of the Dalai Lama's lineage might have denied China the opportunity to insert a proxy Dalai Lama, it also risked demoralising the Tibetan cause and weakening the transnational spiritual ecosystem that underpins Tibetan identity, says Pankaj, the Director of ORCA.
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Pankaj tells Firstpost, 'By reaffirming continuity, the Dalai Lama has preemptively staked spiritual and moral legitimacy for reincarnation. It gives Tibetans and their allies a clear directive to rally around a non-Chinese anointed successor. The continuity ensures a living challenge to China's narrative and offers continuity for Tibetan resilience both spiritually and politically.'
With its warning to India, China has already trained its guns on India. For a long time, a section of the strategic community has argued that India should not get involved in the Tibet-China conflict. Pankaj, however, says that the Chinese control of Tibet and narrative remains the ideological and territorial epicentre of the India-China tensions and India cannot afford to stand aside.
In recent years, as India has toughened its stance on China and increased engagement with TIbetan leaders, critics have said the approach may backfire as China considers Tibet a red line.
Such concerns are misplaced as the respect for China's red lines has never brought India any concessions, says Anushka Saxena, a China researcher at the Takshashila Institute.
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For context, while India has formally accepted Tibet and Taiwan as parts of China under the 'One China Policy', China has never recognised India's territorial integrity.
Saxena says, 'Whether India supports the Dalai Lama on reincarnation or not, no territorial acceptances from China or thaws in bilateral tensions can be expected. When it comes to China's red lines, anything short of pure compliance means 'separatism' to China. India already hosts the Dalai Lama and his followers, which is a big sore point for China. So, it would be folly to assume that unless India parrots the Chinese rhetoric and toes the Chinese line on reincarnation, it will get any benefits.'
While India's approach has often been described as incoherent, Pankaj calls it 'strategic ambiguity' and one rooted in principles instead of short-term interests.
'India has refrained from overtly playing the 'Tibet Card' in maximalist ways, but this restraint is neither passive nor indicative of policy neglect. It reflects strategic ambiguity, a deliberate decision to preserve the card's potency and use it responsively when circumstances warrant — as seen during high-stakes episodes like the 2017 Doklam standoff or the post-Galwan shift in India's diplomatic posture,' says Pankaj.
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In the coming years, India will need to use this card carefully as the reincarnation is set to prop up a host of issues, says Saxena.
'India has to deliberate policy responses beyond reincarnation, such as the potential for over-the-top Chinese military deployment in Tibet bordering India, internal protests against China's appointee, and the potential of the next Dalai Lama being an Indian citizen. India will face competing pressures from China and the West, and managing those without either derailing the proximity to the United States or the diplomatic conversations with China would need careful handling,' says Saxena.
As with the case of Taiwan, where China has used its financial and military might to coerce nations into abandoning ties with the self-ruled island, China is expected to try to delegitimise the Dalai Lama as well, but Pankaj says it may not be that simple.
'Unlike Taiwan, where China's argument rests on sovereign territoriality, the spiritual legitimacy of the Dalai Lama transcends borders and temporal power. Reincarnation is inherently a matter of faith and recognition by religious authorities. No amount of material inducement can substitute the sanctity that millions the world over place in the Dalai Lama. Moreover, unlike Taiwan, the Tibet issue does not hinge on formal diplomatic recognition but operates in the space of transnational civil society, spiritual networks, and cultural affinity,' says Pankaj.