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First Post
08-07-2025
- Politics
- First Post
'India follows strategic ambiguity, puts principles above narrow interests': Expert decodes Tibet policy
India follows 'strategic ambiguity' on Tibet and the so-called Tibet Card has been carefully underutilised to preserve its potency and use it responsively when circumstances warrant, such as during high-stakes episodes like the 2017 Doklam standoff and the shift in India's diplomatic posture after border clashes in 2020, according to Eerishika Pankaj, the Director of Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA). read more Tibetan leader the Dalai Lama, center, presides over his 90th birthday celebrations at the Tsuglakhang temple in Dharamshala, India, Sunday, July 6, 2025.(AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia) As the stage has been set for a showdown between China and Tibetans over the Dalai Lama's reincarnation, all eyes are on India's approach to the situation. India's Tibet policy has often been criticised as incoherent, but it is deliberately ambiguous to keep its potency, according to Eerishika Pankaj, a scholar of China and Tibet and the Director of the Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA). Even though India and China have not mentioned Tibet prominently in recent years in bilateral dealings, the issue remains central to bilateral tensions. For one, China's subjugation of Tibet is the basis of the India-China territorial conflict. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD China claims Tibet to be a part of China and further claims that India's Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh are parts of Tibet. This is the basis of China's claim on Ladakh and Arunachal that led to clashes as early as 2020 — 20 Indian soldiers were killed in first fatalities in decades in clashes in Galwan Valley of Ladakh. Pankaj tells Firstpost that India has given up short-term, narrow interests to pursue a principles-based approach to the question of Tibet and the Dalai Lama. Even as India does not have a hawkish policy, China has no room for acceptance for anything other than total compliance when it comes to Tibet. Following the Dalai Lama's announcement that the institution will continue after him, India issued a very balanced statement along expected lines, but China lashed out quickly and warned India against any support to the Dalai Lama. 'India follows strategic ambiguity, puts principles above narrow interests' India's Tibet policy has been shaped over the decades and has been defined by principles and a long-term view. India accepted the Dalai Lama in 1959 after he fled the Chinese crackdown in the wake of a popular uprising against Chinese occupation. Since 1960, the Dalai Lama has lived in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, which has become the capital of world's Tibetan Buddhists. Dharamshala is also the seat of the Government-in-Exile of Tibet. Even as the scale of Indian official engagements with Tibetans and the Dalai Lama have fallen over the years, the fact that India continues to respectfully host the Dalai Lama, more than 100,000 of his followers, and the government-in-exile is tell-tale that of India's principled approach. While critics say that India has not played the 'Tibet card' in the relationship with China appropriately, Pankaj says that it remains carefully underutilised as India deliberately refrained from overtly playing the Tibet Card in maximalist ways. Pankaj tells Firstpost, 'This restraint is neither passive nor indicative of policy neglect. Instead, India has followed calibrated strategic ambiguity, a deliberate decision to preserve the card's potency and use it responsively when circumstances warrant, such as during high-stakes episodes like the 2017 Doklam standoff and the shift in India's diplomatic posture after border clashes in 2020.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD What is often overlooked is also the fact that India has not sought to turn Tibetans into pawns in greater strategic competition as great powers often do — the way the United States and Russia used third parties during the Cold War against each other. Instead, by providing sanctuary to the Dalai Lama, hosting the Tibetan Government-in-Exile in Dharamshala, and supporting Tibetan religious and educational institutions across India, India has afforded the Tibetan community a degree of autonomy, dignity, and permanence unmatched by any other country, says Pankaj. Even as the Tibet Card remains a valuable strategic asset, Pankaj says that India's conscious choice to not overtly weaponise their exile status underscores India's ethical commitment to safeguarding their spiritual and cultural heritage, rather than instrumentalising it for narrow geopolitical gains. Pankaj further says, 'The fact that the Tibet Card has not been fully utilised does not diminish its relevance. Rather, it enhances its credibility. India has demonstrated that its support for Tibet is not transactional but principled. The challenge now is to ensure that this principled approach is underpinned by greater strategic clarity and international coordination — particularly as the succession struggle unfolds and the moral stakes intensify.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Like-minded countries need to come together on Tibet One area where much work needs to be done regarding Tibet to take on China is the coming together of like-minded countries. Tibet needs a dedicated forum of like-minded nations just like the Indo-Pacific region has Quad, says Pankaj. In the Indo-Pacific, Quad goes well beyond projecting military strength to counter Chinese expansionist designs. The group — comprising India, the United States, Australia, and Japan— also partner with developing nations in the region on infrastructure, sustainability, healthcare, and other avenues to not allow China to gain foothold. In doing so, Quad works at breaking China's basis for outreach in the region. Unlike the more institutionalised coordination seen on issues like the Indo-Pacific or critical supply chains, Tibet has suffered from rhetorical support unbacked by actionable coalitions and this absence has emboldened China's strategy of narrative warfare, particularly its historical claims and reinterpretations of Tibetan autonomy, says Pankaj. 'The failure to coalesce on Tibet has real consequences. It reinforces China's claim to exclusive authority over reincarnation politics, erodes the space for Tibetan cultural self-determination, and undercuts values-based diplomacy. Forming a Tibet-oriented coalition, or at least a platform for dialogue, among like-minded countries would serve as both a moral stance and a strategic signal,' Pankaj further says. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
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First Post
07-07-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Can China arm-twist Tibet issue like Taiwan? Expert says it's not so easy
China is set to use its financial and military might to arm-twist nations on the Tibet issue just like it has coerced nations into derecognising Taiwan, but it's not going to be easy as the Tibetan movement —unlike the Taiwan issue— does not rest on formal recognition but on belief system that transcends nations and communities, says Eerishika Pankaj, the Director of Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA). read more Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama greets devotees as he arrives at the Tsuglakhang temple in Dharmsala, India, Tuesday, Aug. 29, 2017. (Photo: AP) As the Dalai Lama has announced the institution will continue after him, China is set to intensify efforts to delegitimise the Tibetan movement and arm-twist nations into toeing its line. China has the Taiwan template that it is expected to deploy. At one point, around 100 countries recognised Taiwan, but most of them switched recognition to the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the years. Since 2019, five countries have switched recognition from Taiwan to PRC, leaving just a handful of countries that still recognise the self-ruled island. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The driver behind such a shift has been China's economic and military might. China has convinced the world that keeping economic and trade ties with it, and avoiding the wrath of its military aggression, is more important than recognising or engaging with Taiwan. While Chinese economic leverage and strategic coercion are potent instruments of foreign policy, it is unlikely that the same tools will succeed in delegitimising the Dalai Lama or his reincarnation recognised in exile and securing widespread international legitimacy for a China-appointed Dalai Lama, according to Eerishika Pankaj, the Director of think tank Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA). China made it clear last week that it will not stay quiet in the matter of the Dalai Lama's succession. Even as India issued a very balanced statement, China warned India against any support to the Dalai Lama and said only China had the sole right to appoint the Dalai Lama. Buying legitimacy in Dalai Lama-Tibet issue won't be easy Pankaj says that that even though China has its economic and military might, the issue of Dalai Lama is not like Tibet as the issue does not rest on formal recognition by a government but by popular legitimacy. There has already been a case of China appointing a senior Tibetan leader in parallel to the one named by the Dalai Lama. In 1989, the 10th Panchen Lama —the second senior-most Lama in Tibetan Buddhism after the Dalai Lama— died and the Dalai Lama recognised a six-year-old Tibetan boy, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, as the 11th Panchen Lama in 1995. Three days after the announcement, Chinese authorities abducted the boy and the boy has not been seen in public since. China later announced its own puppet Panchen Lama. No country has ever recognised China's puppet Panchen Lama. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Pankaj tells Firstpost, 'Unlike Taiwan, where China's argument rests on sovereign territoriality, the spiritual and metaphysical legitimacy of the Dalai Lama transcends borders and temporal power. Reincarnation is inherently a matter of faith, lineage, and recognition by religious authorities. No amount of material inducement can substitute the sanctity that millions of Tibetans and global practitioners place in the Dalai Lama's spiritual legacy. Moreover, the Tibet issue does not hinge on formal diplomatic recognition like Taiwan. Instead, it operates in the space of transnational civil society, spiritual networks, and cultural affinity.' Except for the likes of Russia, North Korea, or Iran, which are aligned with Russia completely, Pankaj says that other countries are unlikely to recognise China-appointed Dalai Lama. 'Most democratic states are unlikely to fully endorse a Chinese-appointed Dalai Lama, even if they refrain from outright condemnation. Thus, China's influence may secure de jure acknowledgements in a few authoritarian and highly dependent states, but de facto legitimacy among the Tibetan community and global Buddhists will rest with the Dalai Lama identified by the Tibetan religious authorities in exile,' says Pankaj. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The popularity and public adoration of the Dalai Lama in several countries would further make it hard for China to delegitimise the Dalai Lama and his reincarnation recognised by his followers in exile, says Pankaj. With the announcement that the institution will continue after him, the Dalai Lama has weakened China's hand. For a long time, the Dalai Lama had floated the possibility that the institution could end with him and that would have denied China an opportunity to appoint its own Dalai Lama. However, the continuation of the institution works against China, suggests Pankaj. 'Far from strengthening China's hand, this announcement puts Beijing in a defensive posture. It will now be forced to justify its political manipulation of a religious process, a narrative that will be difficult to sanitize internationally. In the long arc of history and faith, legitimacy cannot be manufactured by state fiat—it must be believed in. And belief remains outside the realm of China's coercive capacity,' says Pankaj. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
First Post
06-07-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Beyond faith: Why Dalai Lama's reincarnation is a geopolitical tussle & not just about Tibet
With the announcement of his reincarnation ahead of his 90th birthday, the Dalai Lama made it clear that Tibetans will not bow to China. The Dalai Lama's reincarnation is not just a matter of faith but it is a geopolitical contest that goes far beyond Tibet to the roots of the Communist China's expansionism and the Dalai Lama is at the vanguard to challenge it. read more For decades, China has sought to delegitimise a religious leader in exile, undermine his centuries-old institution, and harass his followers. That exiled leader, the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet, has turned 90 today and millions are celebrating his life in defiance of China's decadeslong campaign. Prime Minister Narendra Modi led tributes to the Tibean leader, saying the Dalai Lama 'has been an enduring symbol of love, compassion, patience and moral discipline' and that 'his message has inspired respect and admiration across all faiths. We pray for his continued good health and long life.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In a much-awaited announcement, the Tibetan leader said earlier this week that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue after him and only Tibetans entrusted by him will have the right to recognise his reincarnation. In a quick response, China said it had the sole right in the matter and warned India against any support to the Dalai Lama — setting the stage for a confrontation. For an atheist regime to claim ownership of religious affairs predating its communist ideology by centuries would appear extraordinary, but neither Tibet nor the Dalai Lama are mere territorial or religious issues for China. These issues are central to the geopolitical contest that it began soon after it came to power in 1949. Tibet remains the historical and geopolitical basis of the India-China conflict even if modern discourse often obscures it, says Eerishika Pankaj, the Director of the Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA). China claims Tibet to be a part of China and further claims Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh to be parts of Tibet — and India-China territorial disputes is therefore rooted in China's claims on Tibet. 'The very transformation of India's northern boundary from a cultural frontier with Tibet to a militarised border with China traces directly to the Chinese annexation of Tibet in 1950. China's claim over Arunachal Pradesh as 'South Tibet' is not a standalone territorial assertion but part of a broader narrative of Tibetan territorial unity under Beijing's sovereignty,' says Pankaj. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Dalai Lama lays bare China's lies & expansionist agenda — and that rattles China One of the first things that Chinese leader Mao Zedong did after winning the Chinese Civil War (1945-49) and establishing the People's Republic of China (PRC) was to order the invasion and subjugation of Tibet. Mao claimed that Tibet had always been a part of China and it needed 'liberation' from the Dalai Lama's rule — who had ruled for centuries. Therein lies the root of the Tibet-China conflict and the Chinese disdain for the Dalai Lama and his movement. While Tibetans say that they were always independent, China claims Tibet was always a part of China. The reality is more nuanced than that but not for China that has rewritten history to claim ownership of Tibet and justify its invasion. China cannot tolerate the Dalai Lama as he does not toe its line and has been laying bare before the world China's excesses for decades, says Prof. Tej Pratap Singh, a scholar of China at the Department of Political Science, Banaras Hindu University (BHU). 'A successor recognised by Tibetans in exile, as the Dalai Lama announced this week, is bound to be anti-China and is bound to deny legitimacy to the Chinese rule in Tibet and any territorial claims on Indian land that arise from Chinese rule. That would be unacceptable to China,' says Singh. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While China has portrayed itself as the utopia that brought millions out of poverty and become the world's manufacturing hub, the Dalai Lama and his Tibetan movement have been laying bare before the world that it has not just deprived basic religious and cultural rights to an entire population but has also systematically destroyed their monasteries, cracked down on the teaching and usage of their language, and even broken up their region — the present-day Tibet province under Chinese rule is less than half of the historical Tibet. At its core, China cannot tolerate the Dalai Lama as he keeps the story alive that the basis of Chinese control of Tibet is false, says Jigme Yeshe Lama, a scholar of Tibet at the Department of Political Science, University of Calcutta. In the 13th century, when Mongols ruled China, the rulers established a 'priest-patron relationship' with Tibetan religious leaders wherein Tibetan lamas provided religious teaching and guidance and Chinese rulers extended patronag, says Lama. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Lama says, 'Terms like 'sovereignty', 'suzerainty', or 'autonomy' are Western concepts that do not accurately describe the historical Tibet-China relationship. The relationship was unique that evolved over centuries. Tibet was always autonomous but rulers in Beijing often notionally counted it as a part of their empire because of their patronage, but they never 'controlled' Tibet as the Communist Party now claims. If they really controlled Tibet, the Qing dynasty would not have invaded eastern Tibet in 1905 and Lhasa in 1910, forcing the 13th Dalai Lama to flee to India where he remained until his return in 1912.' In 1905, Viceroy George Curzon of British India said that Chinese suzerainty over Tibet was 'constitutional fiction' and practically non-existing after a British military expedition (1903-04) into Tibet returned. The stage is set for geopolitical games — and India has to be ready For years, the Dalai Lama had floated the possibility that the institution could end with him and that would have denied China an opportunity to appoint its own Dalai Lama. While the cessation of the Dalai Lama's lineage might have denied China the opportunity to insert a proxy Dalai Lama, it also risked demoralising the Tibetan cause and weakening the transnational spiritual ecosystem that underpins Tibetan identity, says Pankaj, the Director of ORCA. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Pankaj tells Firstpost, 'By reaffirming continuity, the Dalai Lama has preemptively staked spiritual and moral legitimacy for reincarnation. It gives Tibetans and their allies a clear directive to rally around a non-Chinese anointed successor. The continuity ensures a living challenge to China's narrative and offers continuity for Tibetan resilience both spiritually and politically.' With its warning to India, China has already trained its guns on India. For a long time, a section of the strategic community has argued that India should not get involved in the Tibet-China conflict. Pankaj, however, says that the Chinese control of Tibet and narrative remains the ideological and territorial epicentre of the India-China tensions and India cannot afford to stand aside. In recent years, as India has toughened its stance on China and increased engagement with TIbetan leaders, critics have said the approach may backfire as China considers Tibet a red line. Such concerns are misplaced as the respect for China's red lines has never brought India any concessions, says Anushka Saxena, a China researcher at the Takshashila Institute. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD For context, while India has formally accepted Tibet and Taiwan as parts of China under the 'One China Policy', China has never recognised India's territorial integrity. Saxena says, 'Whether India supports the Dalai Lama on reincarnation or not, no territorial acceptances from China or thaws in bilateral tensions can be expected. When it comes to China's red lines, anything short of pure compliance means 'separatism' to China. India already hosts the Dalai Lama and his followers, which is a big sore point for China. So, it would be folly to assume that unless India parrots the Chinese rhetoric and toes the Chinese line on reincarnation, it will get any benefits.' While India's approach has often been described as incoherent, Pankaj calls it 'strategic ambiguity' and one rooted in principles instead of short-term interests. 'India has refrained from overtly playing the 'Tibet Card' in maximalist ways, but this restraint is neither passive nor indicative of policy neglect. It reflects strategic ambiguity, a deliberate decision to preserve the card's potency and use it responsively when circumstances warrant — as seen during high-stakes episodes like the 2017 Doklam standoff or the post-Galwan shift in India's diplomatic posture,' says Pankaj. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In the coming years, India will need to use this card carefully as the reincarnation is set to prop up a host of issues, says Saxena. 'India has to deliberate policy responses beyond reincarnation, such as the potential for over-the-top Chinese military deployment in Tibet bordering India, internal protests against China's appointee, and the potential of the next Dalai Lama being an Indian citizen. India will face competing pressures from China and the West, and managing those without either derailing the proximity to the United States or the diplomatic conversations with China would need careful handling,' says Saxena. As with the case of Taiwan, where China has used its financial and military might to coerce nations into abandoning ties with the self-ruled island, China is expected to try to delegitimise the Dalai Lama as well, but Pankaj says it may not be that simple. 'Unlike Taiwan, where China's argument rests on sovereign territoriality, the spiritual legitimacy of the Dalai Lama transcends borders and temporal power. Reincarnation is inherently a matter of faith and recognition by religious authorities. No amount of material inducement can substitute the sanctity that millions the world over place in the Dalai Lama. Moreover, unlike Taiwan, the Tibet issue does not hinge on formal diplomatic recognition but operates in the space of transnational civil society, spiritual networks, and cultural affinity,' says Pankaj.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Yahoo
Contest to vote for new ORCA card design
To celebrate Ride Transit Month, a first-of-its-kind contest is underway to vote for a new skin for an ORCA card. The contest is done with ORCA and Washington State Ferries. Four options are available, all of which are a cartoon orca with some depiction of a ferry. You can vote here. Voting is open to anyone.
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Alaska Capitol to host military exercise, including National Guard, FBI and other agencies
The Alaska State Capitol is seen behind a curtain of blooming branches on Saturday, May 17, 2025. (Photo by James Brooks/Alaska Beacon) Cruise ship passengers in Alaska's capital city, visitors to the Alaska State Capitol and residents could be greeted by officials in hazmat suits next week as the city hosts a large-scale military exercise. 'Operation ORCA' will test the readiness of first responders and members of the Alaska National Guard for a terrorist attack that involves chemical, biological, nuclear or explosive weapons, said Lt. Col. Brett Haker, commander of the 103rd Civil Support Team, which is putting on the exercise. Haker said ORCA is held every other year in Alaska, but this is the first time for Alaska's capital city and for the State Capitol itself, where they will stage a scenario involving an attack by fictitious Russia-based terrorists. Streets on three sides of the Capitol building will be closed to traffic for three days, June 9, 10 and 12, according to the Juneau Police Department. The Capitol itself will remain open to the public during the exercise. Haker said some parts of the scenario will involve a houseboat at or near Juneau's cruise ship docks, which welcome more than 1 million visitors per year. 'They will see us in our hazmat suits. We will have signs up, and ultimately, they'll see us entering and exiting. We'll have our vehicles — they are all like a blue Air Force color. They look civilian, but they all have lights on, and they look like, like an emergency vehicle,' he said. The exercise will involve about 100 people, he said, including members of the FBI, U.S. Border Patrol, the U.S. Coast Guard, local police and fire departments, and local governments including the Tlingit and Haida Central Council. Some members of the National Guard from other states will also participate, and large military cargo planes will be involved. Haker credited his operations officer, Capt. Kyle Rehberg, for organizing much of the exercise but said it will also be a test of organization for everyone involved. 'Ultimately, the main purpose is to improve interoperability, so that we are all speaking the same language when we work with all these additional first responders … and we have these complex problem sets that we have to work through collectively,' he said.
