Demand for GP consultations could rise by up to 30% over next 15 years as population ages and grows
The
Economic and Social Research Institute
(ESRI) on Wednesday published a report that projects demand for GP consultations could rise by between 23 and 30 per cent, from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040.
It projects an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs could be needed by 2040 to meet this need. There was a GP headcount of 3,928 in 2023.
However, this projected figure is based on the current GP-consultation ratio. If GPs were to undertake fewer consultations, for reasons such as higher complexity or reduced working hours, then the number required would increase accordingly, it adds.
READ MORE
Demand for consultations with general practice nurses is projected to grow from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040, an increase of between 32 and 36 per cent.
This means an additional 761 to 868 general practice nurses will be needed by 2040. The headcount in 2023 was 2,288.
According to the report, the level of demand will depend on the uptake of GP visit cards, healthy ageing and engagement with the
chronic disease treatment programme
.
A 'key component' of the
Sláintecare
health reform proposals is moving healthcare from the hospital model to more primary and community settings, the ESRI notes.
A number of policies have been introduced in recent years to achieve this, including the extension of GP visit cards to children under eight and to those below the median income, as well as the development of the chronic disease management programme.
[
Up to 6,800 more inpatient beds will be needed by 2040, says ESRI report
Opens in new window
]
'While it is anticipated that such reforms may reduce pressures on the hospital sector in the medium term, they will inevitably increase the demand for general practice services in the coming years – increases which come in addition to the significant increase in demand arising from a growing and ageing population.'
In the report, the ESRI highlights difficulties in capacity planning in the sector due to a lack of available nationally representative data on general practice.
'A number of measures have already been implemented to increase the general practice workforce, including increasing training places,' the report says. 'However, it is not known if current measures will be sufficient to meet additional demands on general practice in the coming years.'
GP shortages have been a growing concern for a number of years, particularly in rural areas, due to many of these practices being solo-run and doctors approaching retirement age.
According to the most recent figures from the
Irish Medical Council
, from last year, almost a third of GPs are aged 55 or older.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Times
8 hours ago
- Irish Times
‘They got it all wrong': Teenager's action against HSE over eye-squint surgeries settled for €120,000
A girl had six surgeries, which allegedly should not have taken place, to treat a congenital squint in one of her eyes, the High Court has heard. The girl, now a teenager, settled an action against the HSE on Thursday for €120,000 over her treatment at University Hospital Waterford. The settlement was reached without an admission of liability. In the girl's case it was claimed the surgery she had for a downward-looking eye allegedly caused an overcorrection and her eye then looked upward. READ MORE It was claimed that after the six surgeries the girl was left in a worse condition than she was in 2012 when she first had surgery as a toddler. Alan Keating SC, for the girl, told the court she was six-months-old when she was taken to the hospital as she had a congenital squint in her left eye. Counsel said that between the ages of two and seven years the girl had six surgeries involving the eye muscles, which their side would say 'were either wrong or should not have taken place at all'. Mr Keating said the first surgery resulted in an overcorrection where the child's eye then deviated upwards. Her right eye, which did not have a squint, was also operated on. 'Really, they got it all wrong,' he said at one stage. Mr Keating said the surgeries did not affect the girl's eyesight, but there is 'a profound cosmetic issue'. He said experts on their side would say that if nothing was done then it was likely the girl would now have a normal appearance. Experts on their side would also say that further squint surgery would be challenging, hazardous and unpredictable. In the proceedings against the HSE, it was claimed there was an alleged failure to discuss fully the risks and benefits of operating before the first surgery, including the risk of not improving the condition and needing further surgical procedures. There was also, it was claimed, an alleged failure to have such a conversation with the girl's parents in advance of the procedures. All the claims were denied. Approving the settlement, Mr Justice Paul Coffey said it was fair and reasonable and he conveyed his best wishes to the teenager.
Irish Times
9 hours ago
- Irish Times
Mother whose baby died five days after birth satisfied ‘fair and just process' followed with second inquest
A mother whose baby died five days after birth has said she is now satisfied that a 'fair and just process was followed' after a second inquest into his death examined previously undisclosed evidence. Claire Cullen, who cofounded Safer Births Ireland, secured evidence surrounding concerns over equipment used in her son Aaron's resuscitation after he was delivered by emergency Caesarean section at Midland Regional Hospital Portlaoise in May 2016. This evidence, which she obtained through freedom of information requests, sparked a fresh inquiry as it was not made available to an initial inquest which returned a narrative verdict in 2019. A narrative verdict was returned by coroner Dr Myra Cullinane on Thursday for a second time, incorporating the new evidence, before she recommended that all information relating to a death being investigated by a coroner 'be disclosed in full and at the earliest opportunity'. READ MORE Dr Cullinane said the recommendation was made 'to prevent anyone else from going through what we have had to go through'. Providing new evidence, nurse Elaine Sheehy told the inquest on Wednesday that the flow of gas through a 'Neopuff' resuscitator used to provide oxygen to Aaron during his first 11 minutes of life was at a low level until she arrived. Unable to breathe after birth, the Neopuff resuscitator was used between two failed intubation attempts. He was ultimately intubated at 21 minutes of age once a paediatric consultant arrived. Ms Sheehy also recalled a full-term mask being used which was too large for Aaron, who was born at 35 weeks. After corrective actions, Ms Sheehy said Aaron's heart rate improved and the machine began to record oxygen saturation. However, the inquest heard on Thursday that Aaron was 'already in extremis' immediately after his birth, and had been suffering from severe and persistent pulmonary hypertension, a condition in which a baby fails to transition from antenatal circulation. This, which was noted as being caused by systemic thrombosis, was the ultimate cause of his death. Dr Paul Downey, a consultant perinatal pathologist, said thrombosis found in Aaron's left kidney was heavily calcified suggesting it was 'well established' before birth. The systemic thrombosis was noted as being in association with a non-lethal mitochondrial disorder, from which the inquest heard just 30 people are known to suffer worldwide. Dr Downey said it was unclear whether there was an issue with oxygen delivery during part of the resuscitation; however, if that was the case, it was his opinion that it did not cause his death. 'That's not to say it didn't have any effect, but I don't think it caused his death,' he said. Before a verdict was delivered, Fiona Gallagher, counsel for the family, said the failure to disclose Ms Sheehy's concerns as evidence exacerbated the 'trauma and distress' the family has suffered. Counsel for the HSE, Luán Ó Braonáin, submitted that evidence heard this week points to a death of natural causes, saying it would be in the discretion of the coroner to find such a verdict. Speaking outside the court, Claire Cullen said her nine-year fight has 'finally reached a conclusion'. She said her son's rights were 'hindered and impacted throughout every investigative process' into his death. Ms Cullen believed if she had not sought further information, 'it would have never been disclosed to me'. 'Six years ago, we left the coroner's court with more questions than answers,' she said, adding that she is now satisfied it has had the opportunity to be fully investigated. 'Today, I leave the coroner's court knowing that I did everything in my power to offer my son the dignity and respect as a human being that he deserved,' she said.
Irish Times
10 hours ago
- Irish Times
The Irish Times view on Hpat: doctoring the sytem
The Health Professions Admission Test, or Hpat, was introduced in 2009 to broaden access to medical school by testing non-academic skills such as problem-solving. It was a variation of similar tests pioneered in Australia and had the laudable goals of not only producing better doctors but also leveling the playing field between those who could afford private schools and additional tuition and those who could not. Its creators, the Australian Council for Educational Research, claimed that it was neither possible nor worthwhile to study for the exam. However, they had not reckoned with Irish parents and the grind culture that has taken hold since the establishment of the first 'grind schools' in the 1970s. Middle class families continue to find new ways to game the CAO system. Hpat preparatory courses cost up to € 800 and would appear to deliver. Medical faculties report that most students who repeat the exam improve their score and a significant number who gain places do so on the basis of a repeated Hpat. The question as to whether the introduction of the test actually produced better doctors is hard to answer but is clear that the pendulum has swung back in favour of better-off applicants, if it ever truly swung away from them. Over a third of medical students are now from affluent backgrounds, according to the Higher Education Authority. This compares with 18 per cent for the student body as a whole. READ MORE Several medical schools now want to reduce the weight attached to the Hpat, which can add 300 points to a candidate's Leaving Cert result, although the average is near half that. Any changes will need to be signed off by their respective universities' academic councils and the Department of Education will no doubt have something to say. The proposal is worthy of serious consideration. The system as currently designed is not delivering as expected. However, any downgrading of the Hpat should be accompanied by alternative measures to ensure that students from less affluent backgrounds are fairly represented.
