Trump confronts a familiar Gaza conundrum

Politico

a day ago

With help from Phelim Kine and Amy Mackinnon
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President DONALD TRUMP faces the same challenge in the Middle East that his predecessor JOE BIDEN did: All roads to his broader policy goals require a permanent Gaza ceasefire, which Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has not yet been ready to accept.
Whether it's expanding Israel's regional relations via the diplomatic agreements known as the Abraham Accords, supporting Syria's reconstruction or ending the wars that began during Biden's term — none will be possible so long as the war between Israel and Gaza continues apace.
That dynamic will be on display when Netanyahu visits Trump at the White House next week. His top adviser, RON DERMER, is meeting with special envoy STEVE WITKOFF, Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO and Vice President JD VANCE on Tuesday. They will discuss Netanyahu's visit and the Gaza ceasefire, among other things, a U.S. official said.
After Trump's decision last month to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear program, his team now sees a window of opportunity to usher in the monumental change in the Middle East that Trump and his aides have long mused about. They believe the strikes have only bolstered their leverage with Iran-backed Hamas, as Tehran's regional power has been significantly throttled.
Israel will still have to make concessions — especially as Hamas has refused to budge on its desire to reach a permanent end to the war. Netanyahu, for months, has prioritized 'defeating' Hamas in Gaza and has talked about achieving 'total victory' there. While Israel and Hamas have twice agreed to temporary ceasefires — for several days in November 2023 and for six weeks from January to March of this year — both broke down over disagreements about a permanent end to the fighting, disarming Hamas and demands over the remaining hostages.
Israel's and the United States' success in attacking Iran may grant Netanyahu more political leeway to do what he hasn't been willing to do over 12 months of war. DAN SHAPIRO, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration, said the current dynamic between Israel and the U.S. may shift in light of recent events and because of the realities of the Israeli political calendar. Netanyahu will face another election by late October next year, no matter what happens, which may impact his negotiating tactics.
The Biden administration learned the lesson that Trump has too, Shapiro said.
'Netanyahu is always going to prioritize his political survival over any other decision,' Shapiro said, adding that several recent developments could make Netanyahu see a ceasefire as in his political interest. These include Israel's success in beating back Iran, the end of Netanyahu's coalition government's term next year and Trump's newfound leverage with Netanyahu after the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Shapiro, also a former ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration, predicted that Netanyahu would likely put off any decision on a ceasefire while visiting the White House next week, but would agree to it in August once Israel's parliament is out on recess until October. That would allow Netanyahu to face less political blowback, as it is much harder to topple the government when parliament is not in session.
The Inbox
THE LAST DAY OF USAID: As anxiety about a reduction in force still swirls at the State Department — and as staffers nervously await a Supreme Court decision that could pave the way for sweeping cuts — the remnants of the U.S. Agency for International Development are shuttering today.
Aware of his timing, Rubio — who is still the acting USAID administrator — published a Substack post today outlining a new vision for U.S. foreign aid. In the post, Rubio condemned what he described as 'a globe-spanning NGO industrial complex at taxpayer expense.' He specifically hinted that the future direction of U.S. foreign assistance will involve 'prioritizing trade over aid, opportunity over dependency, and investment over assistance.'
Not everyone is as optimistic. Former Presidents GEORGE W. BUSH and BARACK OBAMA joined musician BONO in recording a video directly criticizing Trump for gutting the U.S. foreign assistance agency so abruptly. Former Liberian President ELLEN JOHNSON SIRLEAF, former Colombian President JUAN MANUEL SANTOS and former U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD also appeared in the video.
'You've shown the great strength of America through your work — and that is your good heart,'' Bush said. 'Is it in our national interests that 25 million people who would have died now live? I think it is, and so do you.'
JAKE SULLIVAN RETURNS? Democrats are compiling a 'Project 2029,' The New York Times reported Monday, and they've brought on a familiar national security hand to help them out.
Biden administration national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN is on the advisory board of an effort to set Democrats' strategy going into the 2028 election. It's a familiar role for Sullivan, who, after Trump first won in 2016, worked with other national security aides to rethink U.S. foreign policy and laid the groundwork for the Biden administration's future approach to alliances and partnerships.
That detail got some buzz much later in the day Monday. Sullivan is reviled in some corners of the party for the Biden administration's approach to the crisis in the Gaza Strip, and some of the online reactions to the news prove that progressives haven't forgiven the Biden team for supporting Israel's war in the enclave as unconditionally as they did.
Ex-Biden administration officials NatSec Daily spoke to weren't surprised that Sullivan would take part in the effort, though they were skeptical that the effort would have any impact. Others also warned that the presence of Sullivan, in tandem with other Democratic stalwarts like former senior adviser NEERA TANDEN, could stifle needed changes in the party.
'If you gather the usual suspects, then dramatic innovation is harder to produce,' said one former Biden administration official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. 'Plus, while preparing for 2029 is the right and prudent thing to do, who is leading the fight against Trump's authoritarian power grab? If that doesn't happen, can there even be a legitimate election in 2028?'
THE QUAD TALKS RARE EARTHS AND PAKISTAN: Rubio's convening of the foreign ministers of the Quad group — Japan, Australia, and India — mostly stuck to an anodyne script about the need for unity and stability in the Indo-Pacific. But the Trump administration's concerns about China's stranglehold over the global supply of rare earth minerals also bled into the meeting with India's SUBRAHMANYAM JAISHANKAR, Australia's PENNY WONG and Japan's TAKESHI IWAYA.
The U.S. seeks Quad cooperation in 'diversifying the global supply chain of critical minerals,' Rubio said in a State Department statement. The success of Rubio's pitch was unclear — none of Rubio's counterparts mentioned critical minerals in their readouts of the meeting.
India-Pakistan tensions — which boiled over into four days of intense cross-border exchanges of fire in May — also made the meeting agenda. And Jaishankar warned that New Delhi is on high alert for any future such attacks. 'India has every right to defend its people against terrorism — and we will exercise that right. We expect our Quad partners to understand and appreciate that,' Jaishankar said in the joint readout.
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Keystrokes
TEHRAN'S NEW TRICK: Iranian hackers may be looking to release sensitive emails from within the Trump campaign as a way to embarrass the president.
As our own John Sakellariadis reports, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency sent out a bulletin Monday night warning that 'a hostile foreign adversary is threatening to illegally exploit purportedly stolen and unverified material in an effort to distract, discredit and divide.' The bulletin went on to accuse the hackers of looking 'to damage President Trump and discredit honorable public servants who serve our country with distinction.'
The CISA bulletin follows a Reuters report Monday night that Iran-linked hackers are looking to offload more Trump 2024 campaign emails — including ones that address chief of staff SUSIE WILES and porn star STORMY DANIELS. Those same hackers leaked Trump campaign documents to POLITICO and other outlets during the 2024 election.
The Complex
ARMY GETS GAO SCRUTINY: The Government Accountability Office is finding major fault in the Army's ability to rapidly develop needed long-range missile and artillery systems.
In a report released this morning, the internal watchdog argues the Army has had 'mixed success' in its efforts to produce the new weapons systems it needs to meet its changed priorities. As the report highlights, the Army is moving away from a focus on counterinsurgency toward 'large-scale conflict with near-peer adversaries' and 'urgently needs artillery and missile systems that are more mobile, survivable, and lethal than existing systems.'
To that end, GAO says the Army 'did not consistently apply leading practices for iterative product development' and noted a spate of issues in testing and development that stem from using a more 'linear' approach that isn't adjusting in real time to feedback and new data.
ICYMI — Senators slam Lloyd Austin over new consulting firm by our own Daniel Lippman
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — IUD INQUIRY: Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) sent a letter today to Rubio protesting a State Department decision to destroy more than $9 million worth of birth control like IUDs, implants, shots and birth control pills intended for women in crisis.
All of the contraceptives have already been paid for, and some of them are being stored at a U.S.-funded warehouse in Belgium. The supplies were purchased to be provided to women 'in crisis settings, including war zones, refugee camps and other extremely poor communities, where access to family planning contraceptives is critical,' the senators write.
The senators highlight that these 'supplies do not include support for abortion services and are in full compliance with all U.S. foreign assistance laws' and argue the administration 'has offered no justification for why millions of dollars of already-purchased commodities should go to waste.' Destroying them, they note, will also incur additional costs.
'We urge you to quickly reverse the decision to destroy these supplies and transfer these valuable commodities to a country or partner that can ensure they are delivered to women around the world,' Shaheen and Murkowski said.
Broadsides
SOUTH CHINA SEA SANCTIONS SPAT: Beijing's sensitivity to criticism of its increasingly aggressive incursions into Philippine waters of the South China Sea got personal today, our own Phelim Kine writes in.
China's Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that it was imposing sanctions against former Philippine Sen. FRANCIS TOLENTINO for what it described as his 'egregious conduct on China-related issues.' The sanctions are symbolic — they merely bar the Philippine lawmaker from entering China. Tolentino is guilty of 'malicious remarks and moves on issues related to China that are detrimental to China's interests and China-Philippine relations,' said the statement. Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING declined to provide details about Beijing's ire toward Tolentino beyond warning of 'consequences for hurting China's interests.'
Tolentino's legislative record may explain Beijing's anger. Tolentino has championed the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act — legislation that pushes back against Beijing's expansive territorial claims. Those laws align with the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea ruling against Beijing's territorial claims in 2016.
Tolentino declared the sanctions a boost to his political brand. 'This sanction is a badge of honor and a testament to my unwavering commitment to protect our national interest and our people's dignity,' Tolentino said in an X post.
Transitions
— Boeing named JAY MALAVE as its next chief financial officer, effective Aug. 15. Malave, who stepped down as Lockheed Martin's chief financial officer in April, also previously served as chief financial officer of L3Harris and UTC Aerospace Systems. He'll replace BRIAN WEST, who has been Boeing's chief financial officer since 2021 and will stay on as an adviser to CEOKELLY ORTBERG.
— BRIAN BURTON has joined Saronic Technologies as senior director for growth. He was a senior adviser for international and industry engagement in DOD's Industrial Base Policy office. Burton is a veteran of Boeing's defense and space division.
— SMI has hired AISHA HAYNES as vice president. She most recently served as principal director for advanced materials in the office of the undersecretary of Defense for research and engineering.
— Career civil servant CASIE ANTALIS is the new program director for CISA's Joint Cyber Coordination Group.
— DELANEY WEHN is now communications director for Rep. GABE VASQUEZ (D-N.M.). She previously was a staff assistant at the State Department.
— JONATHAN KAPLAN is launching Write Cadence Strategies, a strategic advisory firm. He previously was communications officer at the Open Society Foundations.
What to Read
— Jeff Schogol, Task and Purpose: A breakdown of safety procedures 'directly contributed' to an 82nd Airborne paratrooper's death
— Dan DePetris, POLITICO: War With Iran Exposes the Emptiness of the 'Axis of Autocracy'
— Tyler Hicks and Maria Varenikova, The New York Times: Under a Drone-Swarmed Sky: Surviving in Eastern Ukraine
Tomorrow Today
— D-Fend Solutions, 10 a.m.: Operation Spider's Web Examined: Practical Lessons for Security Leaders
— East-West Center, 10 a.m.: Bangladesh's Foreign Policy and US, China and India in a Fluid Indo-Pacific
— Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 11 a.m.: Iran on Day 13: Gauging Regime Choices and Public Attitudes After the War
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Discussion with Sen. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) on 'the key challenges and opportunities across various sectors that will shape the future of trilateral relations among U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific.'
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, who should not be named to the advisory boards of any Democratic policy efforts.