A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman, which brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the worlds of sports business and media. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox. A unique event is upon us in the world of sports business – a major Hollywood movie debut that could have real effects on the future prospects of a publicly traded sports league. "F1:The Movie," starring Brad Pitt , hits theaters Friday and is estimated to take in between $59 million and $75 million for its opening weekend, according to tracking data from Box Office Theory. For a racing movie, those are strong numbers – helped by more expensive tickets for IMAX showings. "Ford vs. Ferrari" opened in 2019 at $31.4 million. "Gran Turismo" opened at $17.4 million in 2023. Still, that doesn't mean "F1: The Movie" will be viewed as a big hit. Produced by Apple Original Films with a budget of around $300 million, according to Puck's Matt Belloni, "F1" is one of the most expensive movies ever made. That sometimes colors media attention, which could in turn affect box office performance. The bigger the budget, the higher the bar on the box office returns. While it doesn't matter to F1, the racing league, if "F1: The Movie" makes money or not, a runaway hit could affect the company's valuation. It's possible the movie could bring in new fans if it hits a wide-enough audience, similar to how Netflix's "Drive to Survive" docuseries led to a surge in F1 popularity six years ago. U.S. TV ratings for live F1 races surged between 2019 and 2022, leading Disney to pay $85 million a year for the rights to air F1 from 2022 to 2025. Prior to that deal, Disney had been paying an average of just $5 million a year. Sky Sports is paying about $250 million per year for its UK rights, which run through 2029, The New York Times reported earlier this year. The spike in media rights valuations led to a significant jump in the valuation of Formula One, which has a market capitalization of more than $25 billion. That's way up from the $4.6 billion that Liberty Media paid to acquire the racing series in 2017. Equity research firm Bernstein initiated coverage on Formula One this month with a market-perform rating, noting the upside opportunity in the U.S. should be measured in "years, not quarters." Notably, Bernstein's analysts said they "expect a sizable uplift to F1 media rights next year." That caught my eye. I'm hearing that ESPN has little interest in paying any increase to the $85 million it's already paying, for two reasons: 1. Once Sunday racing begins, F1 has no commercial breaks. That makes events difficult to monetize. Media companies can utilize "two-boxes," where commercials run alongside racing action, but those ads typically cost much less than regular TV spots and are often irritating for fans. 2. TV ratings for F1 have stagnated. After nearly doubling viewership from 2018 to 2022, when an average of 1.2 million viewers watched F1's Sunday races (a record high), overall audience fell to 1.1 million in 2023 and stayed there in 2024, according to an ESPN spokesperson. So far this year, ratings are up a tad again, averaging 1.3 million through 10 races. One significant perk that comes with owning F1 rights is the associated hospitality benefits. Any media company that owns the exclusive racing rights can invite clients to events, and there may be no more lucrative event series globally than F1 races in terms of bringing rich people together. F1 races are effectively showcases for wealth. There's value in that for ESPN, Netflix, Amazon or anyone else that wants F1 in their portfolio. There's also some value in F1's fan demographics, which skew younger and more female than more traditional NASCAR and IndyCar racing. If Bernstein is going to be right with its prediction, another media entity will have to outbid ESPN significantly for the rights. Owning an entire package of F1 races doesn't appear to fit Netflix's "event" sports strategy, because each race doesn't generate much of a U.S. audience compared to Christmas Day NFL games or hyped up boxing matches. Strategically, it may be a better fit for Apple TV+, which is ad-free. Which brings us back to Apple's "F1: The Movie." So far, the reviews are promising, with an 88% "certified fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes. "It might be a Formula One promotional movie at its core, but at least it's a damn good film," writes reviewer Mae Abdulbaki. "' F1 The Movie ' is essentially a two-and-a-half-hour commercial with a surprisingly compelling story." Perhaps it's apt that the movie functions as one long commercial when the absence of commercials may be F1's biggest hurdle. Sources say F1 could pick its next U.S. media partner in the coming weeks. On the record With NASCAR Commissioner Steve Phelps ... Sticking with our racing theme this week, CNBC's Brian Sullivan sat down with NASCAR Commissioner Steve Phelps for a wide-ranging interview about competing for motorsport investment with F1 and IndyCar, private equity, and if NASCAR wants its own "F1: The Movie." "We're in just some discussions right now," Phelps said of a NASCAR-related movie. "There are some screenplays that are being written right now that are more drama-related." NASCAR just finished up its first season broadcasting on Amazon Prime Video, averaging 2.16 million viewers across five races. The Prime Original docuseries "Earnhardt," about famed NASCAR racer Dale Earnhardt and his son Dale Jr., hit No. 1 on the Prime Video Top 10 chart. NASCAR also has its own Netflix show, "Full Speed," that debuted last year. Season 2 premiered May 7. Phelps even hinted there may be a "Days of Thunder 2" at some point. The original came out in 1990 and starred Tom Cruise . Similar to Pitt's F1 movie, it also starred several actual NASCAR racers. Watch the entire interview here . Or listen to it here and follow the CNBC Sport podcast if you prefer the audio version CNBC Sport highlight reel The best of CNBC Sport from the past week: I attended Fanatics Fest on Friday, the three-day showcase of professional athletes, collectables and other sports merchandise. More than 125,000 people attended this year at the Javits Center in New York City, up from 74,000 last year. I got a chance to speak with a handful of professional athletes about NIL and what they think it's doing to college sports. I got a wide range of opinions depending on who I asked – from Robert Griffin III, former quarterback for what is now the Washington Commanders, ("I personally love NIL for the athletes.") to former Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant ("It's showing that there's no loyalty and everything is about money.") to Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young ("The fact that people weren't able to be compensated for that for so long, it's a crime."). I also asked former University of Michigan star Jalen Rose if the famed "Fab Five" (Rose, Chris Webber , Ray Jackson, Jimmy King and Juwan Howard ) would have stayed together if NIL collectives were pooling millions of dollars and throwing it at them. Hear his answer here , along with extended clips from others. Fanatics Fest offered all sorts of games and contests for fans, but it also offered a business boot camp for professional athletes, reports CNBC's Frank Holland . "Coaches" included Fanatics founder Michael Rubin , Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon , Philadelphia 76ers managing partner Josh Harris , ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro and Boardroom cofounder and CEO Rich Kleiman. ESPN has renewed a five-year media rights agreement with the Premiere Lacrosse League beginning with the 2026 season. ESPN has also taken a 3% equity stake in the league, CNBC Sport has learned. CNBC's Jessica Golden spoke with PLL co-founder and president Paul Rabil . He told her that since 2019, paid tickets are up 34%, attendance is up 13%, ticket revenue is up 149% and sponsor dollars are up more than 100%. CNBC's Lillian Rizzo scored the first interview with new Tennis Channel CEO Jeff Blackburn since he joined the company. The Tennis Channel is extending its deal with the Women's Tennis Association, allowing the cable TV network and streaming service to continue broadcasting more than 2,000 matches each season . Blackburn, who previously ran Amazon Prime Video, said Tennis Channel had to pay "a pretty big step up" in rights fees to hold on to the WTA. The big number: $238 million That's how much the Boston Celtics saved in 20 hours by trading away Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis, according to an estimate by Yossi Gozlan of CapSheets.com . While trading away the two players only saved about $27 million in next year's salary, getting under the so-called second apron – essentially a hard cap at $207.8 million – will save the team more than $200 million. The two trades brought the Celtics from a team payroll of $232 million to $205 million. That still doesn't give the Celtics much wiggle room to make future changes, which is why the team is also considering trading All-Star forward Jaylen Brown , whose salary for next season is $53 million. Brown signed a five-year, $304 million supermax contract extension in July 2023. The NBA Board of Governors will likely approve the Celtics' sale to new majority owner Bill Chisholm in the coming weeks. Quote of the week "Maybe…Shhhhh." — WWE superstar and YouTube personality Logan Paul , when I asked him at Fanatics Fest if Netflix is considering giving him a fight deal like they did with his brother, Jake, last year against Mike Tyson. I'm told Logan was probably just being coy, or hopeful, given his brother said he made $40 million on the Tyson fight. There are no talks with Netflix about a boxing match with him, according to a source familiar with the matter. A Netflix spokesperson declined to comment. The undercard on that Paul-Tyson fight in November was Katie Serrano vs. Amanda Taylor . They will fight again at Madison Square Garden on July 11 – again on Netflix. Around the league Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez are officially owners of the NBA's Minnesota Timberwolves and the WNBA's Minnesota Lynx. The NBA's Board of Governors approved the sale of both teams from Glen Taylor to Lore and Rodriguez, ending a multiyear saga. Lore will be the governor of the T-Wolves, and Rodriguez will be governor of the Lynx. Meadowlark's Pablo Torre obtained a 61-page ruling where an independent arbitrator wrote "there is little question that the NFL Management Council, with the blessing of the Commissioner [ Roger Goodell ] encouraged" all 32 NFL teams to "reduce guarantees in veterans' contracts" at a 2022 owners meeting while also noting "the evidence did not establish by a clear preponderance that the Clubs agreed to do that or participated in such a scheme." San Diego Padres star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is suing Big League Advance, accusing the company of predatory lending related to a contract Tatis signed with the firm when he was 17. According to his lawyer, Tatis received $2 million up front in exchange for 10% of future earnings. Tatis went on sign to a 14-year, $340 million contract in 2021. BLA's website features a slogan that says "Empowering athletes to achieve their dreams," noting more than 700 athletes have signed "partnership" deals with BLA.
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