NRL Round 19 Team Talk and live SuperCoach question and answer session
The post-TLT injuries to the likes of Ryan Papenhuyzen (more on him below) and Euan Aitken saw me reverse course and buy Mark Nawaqanitawase (more on him below).
That was a win.
Putting the armband on James Tedesco was not a 'win' but was not a loss. Watching the Tigers beat my Roosters live was a loss. Thoroughly deserved win by the way - well played.
Watching Kaeo Weekes rip it up against the Dragons after I labelled him 'rocks or diamonds' was tough (yes I could argue that was the 'diamonds' but I'll be honest I was not expecting his diamond to shine that bright!).
Enough of my laments, let's get into the Buy/Hold/Sell analysis - with the disclaimer that Origin injuries could alter some takes below.
Connor Watson - Hooker is a really tough position this year. How tough? In 2025 just three HOK eligible players (Connor Watson (67PPG), Blayke Brailey (60PPG) and Cam McInnes (60PPG)) are averaging better than 60PPG. In 2024 six players finished with a 60PPG (or better) average. Watson is clearly leading the position in terms of average this year, starting at hooker and then often spending some time either at 13 or on an edge. With a base that sits just below 50 and excellent attack - he is top five for tries and try assists (sixth if you include HOK eligible halfback Sandon Smith) all despite playing significantly fewer games than his competitors - Watson is the hooker I want to finish the season. Having played just 35 minutes combined over Origin I and II, I expect Watson to backup from game III and play near enough 80 minutes against the Dragons this round.
Mark Nawaqanitawase/Zac Lomax/Val Holmes - The rugby convert lacks the goalkicking floor of the likes of Val Holmes (GK adding 10.6PPG) and Zac Lomax (GK adding 9PPG). He is also 'outworked' by both; in Lomax's case by a whopping 11PPG in base, with Holmes it's a less significant 3PPG.
But what Nawaqanitawase has been doing so much better than both his rivals is breaking lines and scoring tries with his tallies in each of those statistical areas better than Lomax and Homes combined. As I mentioned last week, the Roosters have a mixed draw for the remainder of the season, with tough match-ups against the Storm (twice) and Bulldogs, the major obstacles. I still think Lomax and Holmes are the safer options, but you also cannot ignore the fact that each of those players has hit triple figures just once this year while Mark N has done it twice. If you can handle his odd rock then maybe his diamonds make it all worthwhile.
VERDICT: ALL THREE ARE BUYS HOW MANY YOU NEED IS UP TO YOU
Nathan Cleary - While 2025 has been Nathan Cleary's worst season in the past six years, he's still averaging 6PPG more than the nest best halfback (Nicho Hynes). The Panthers have won their past four matches and while they're certainly not the juggernaut of years gone past they do seem to be finally finding their mojo. Penrith's next five opponents (Eels (15th), Souths (16th), Wests Tigers (14th), Titans (17th) and Knights (13th) are the current bottom five on the ladder. With plenty to play for and a full 3.5 days break between Origin III and the Eels game then I expect Cleary to backup after the Blues beat Queensland on Wednesday night. Should he do so I think he's almost a must have buy.
VERDICT: BUY
Angus Crichton - In 2024 the Mighty Angus averaged a mighty 78PPG. So far this year his return has been a little more pedestrian with the Roosters edge forward averaging just 65PPG. The good news is there's nothing fundamentally wrong/changed around Crichton. He is in fact averaging slightly higher base and almost the same tackle busts/offloads. The work is there. The dramatic drop off has been tries and try assists. In 2024 Crichton averaged almost 14PPG across those two areas. In 2025 he is returning just 1.5PPG across the two key attacking areas with just one try and zero assists. Priced at $584K Crichton is worth a pick-up even if you don't believe the attacking stats will return. He's a bargain if, like me, you expect the return of crafty half Sam Walker to result in at least a couple of pies for his favourite hole running edge forward.
VERDICT: BUY
Ezra Mam - Since making his return from suspension, Mam has had just the one bad game (41 vs. Manly in round 13) and has averaged 83PPG across the other five matches. The Broncos have a rather soft draw for the run home with just two tough games (Storm in rounds 23 and 27) left and the rest all very positive. That said, the Bronx also have a round 20 bye which is not ideal. At a position which seems full of somewhat risky plays then Mam is far from the worst option. I still prefer Jayden Campbell (from round 20 onwards) and probably Cam Munster too but at a tough position Mam is a buy.
VERDICT: BUY
Ryan Papenhuyzen - The Storm full-back's withdrawal from the match against the Cowboys (Calf tightness) is a worry. His recent form - a three-round average (3RA) of 61.7PPG and 5RA of 56.6PPG - is not great. Put the two together and I'm making the 'brave' call to sack Paps and replace him at flex with Cleary. The upside is obvious, as someone who captained him when he scored 182 versus the Wests Tigers, I'm well aware of it. And I expect Papenhuyzen will benefit from having the Origin spine stars Munster and Grant back too. I'm not saying this is the move for everyone, but if like me you're hovering around the top 5% and want to make a move up then axing someone who is widely owned (Paps was in 90% of top 5% teams at the start of this week) and replacing him with a player with equal upside but far lower ownership (Cleary was in just 24% of top 5% teams at the start of the week) is the way to do it.
VERDICT: SELL
Sandon Smith - The return of Sam Walker likely sends Smith to the bench where he'll become the number 14.
VERDICT: SELL
Lyhkan King-Togia - Came into round 18 on a run of decent form. Could not get any attack going whatsoever and I feel a Flanagan axing looms.
VERDICT: SELL
Joseph Tapine - The big Raider has done a 'reverse Tapine' averaging 78PPG over the opening portion of the season and falling in a hole in the mid to latter part of the season. On a bye this week and then with the Rd 24 bye to serve too he's a sell.
Tom Starling - Many of us held Starling hoping to farewell him after some attacking stats against the Dragons. The minutes held up, the attack never came as the Raiders instead spun it wide and tore the weak St George wingers to shreds. See above re Canberra's bye schedule.
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