Clock ticks for South Korea

Time of India

a day ago

By Sunil Chandra Dal
South Korea, long hailed for its rapid modernisation and economic success, is now facing an unprecedented fertility crisis. The nation's population is shrinking at an alarming pace, with the birth rate plunging to a historic low. If this trend persists, South Korea's population could shrink to just a third of its current size by the end of the century—a situation that could destabilise the economy and threatens the country's survival.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for South Korea is 0.7 live births per woman. A TFR of 2.1 represents the replacement-level fertility: the average number of children per woman needed for each generation to exactly replace itself without needing international immigration. A value below 2.1 will cause the native population to decline. According to experts, South Korea's population is the lowest.
According to Worldometer (www.worldometers.info), the population of South Korea is estimated at 51,667,029 or 51 million (5.1 crore) in 2025. The annual change in population is −0.1%. Worldometer, which works on data released by the United Nations, estimates the South Korean population to be 4.5 crore in 2050 with a yearly change of minus zero point nine percent.
The country has implemented a range of measures to encourage higher birth rates, including recruiting foreign childcare workers, offering tax incentives, and even proposing military service exemptions for men who have three or more children by the age of 30. However, these initiatives have had limited success so far, with the birth rate continuing to decline.
Decreased fertility rates tend to be caused by lower marriage rates, more delayed marriages, and increased age of parents. Economic factors such as income, labour market conditions, socio-cultural factors–including changes in the values of education and gender roles, and family and health policy–are the main causes of lower fertility rates. Changing social norms and values play an important role.
Parents prefer no more than one or two children to focus on each child's success with lower financial burden. In a survey conducted in 2012 in South Korea, 90% of the respondents stated that they are reluctant to have children because of high education cost, including private education fees. This appears to be a common factor in many countries.
Global scenario
Other countries like China, Japan, and some European countries have been affected by dropping TFRs. For China, 2025, the population is 1,416,096,094 and thus grew by −0.23% or -3,225,184.
By 2050, China's population is expected to be 1,260,289,093 or growing by −0.71% annually. The total fertility rate is one birth per woman i.e. TFR=1. China has now reversed its one-child policy, which was enforced strictly for decades, resulting in a decreasing population.
According to a study published in the Lancet, only six countries will have fertility rates above replacement level in 2100: Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan. The TFR in Western Europe is predicted to be 1.44 in 2050, dropping to 1.37 in 2100.
While declining TFR can lead to population decline and pose challenges for societies, it is not likely to cause human extinction. Even with low TFR, human populations are still growing globally, and replacement level fertility (around 2.1 children per woman) is not a strict threshold for survival, according to experts.
The case for India
In India, the average TFR has now dipped below replacement level in several states. While India remains one of the few countries with a youthful demographic advantage, that edge may not last long.
For India, the population in 2025 is 1,463,865,525 (146 crore), with a yearly change of +0.89. The TFR is 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. For 2050 the Indian population is predicted to be 1,679,589,259 or 167.9 crore or growing at 0.28%, according to Worldometer.
Many states, especially those located in the south, have reached below-replacement fertility. The country still benefits from a large working-age population, but experts warn that without proactive policy planning, India too may face the consequences of population stagnation—just on a delayed timeline. Family planning policies have to be updated in the face of falling TFRs or else India will face the same problems being tackled by South Korea today.
While nations experiment with cash incentives, parental leave policies, and immigration reforms, demographers say what's truly needed is a deeper shift: support for women's career goals, affordable childcare, and workplace flexibility. As the world redefines family, India stands at a crucial crossroads—one where demographic decisions made today will shape the nation's future for generations.