Todd Young's political survival means never fully crossing Trump
"What I've been pushing for is more clarity so that our investors and businesses know when they can deploy capital and what return on investments they can project and all the rest of it," Young told NPR in April.
Three months later, economic uncertainty reigns. Trump is still trying on new tariffs as casually as red ties and he's floating the idea of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over interest rates that are likely stuck in place because of the president's tariffs.
Young's professed quest for clarity has stopped short of concrete action — even though he's the Republican senator you might most expect it from. Young opposed Trump's nomination for president, signed onto a bill to reassert congressional authority over tariffs and is a longtime advocate for congressional independence. Yet, when the Senate has taken up resolutions to push back against the president's tariff power, Young has voted with Trump.
So far, Young's approach has turned out … fine. Tariffs are beginning to push prices up, but the overall effects have fallen far short of the worst-case scenarios that I and others have warned about. The economy's steady hum has justified Young's measured approach.
Therein lies Young's tightrope act. He is balancing career aspirations against statesmanship, with no margin for error. He is betting on his own effectiveness, his reelection and America's resiliency under an erratic president. For Young to survive, all three elements must remain in equilibrium.
Young's tolerance for the president's chaos is most maddening to Democrats and Never Trump Republicans who want to see Young use his power. Young is one of 53 Republican senators, a narrow majority that gives him an often consequential vote. He could pose a serious threat to Trump's agenda.
He'd also be burning down his Senate career. Young almost certainly will face a Trump-friendly Republican primary challenge in 2028 when he'll make his case to Indiana voters who have overwhelmingly supported the president. MAGA Republicans will seize on Young's history of disloyalty, even though he has more recently positioned himself as a "team player" for Trump.
With every Trump act that Young might oppose, the senator has to weigh the short-term efficacy of standing up to the president against the long-term gains he believes he can make as a behind-the-scenes policy grinder in the Senate.
Young is focused on preserving and implementing the CHIPS and Science Act, a crucial Biden-era law to bring microchip manufacturing to the U.S. He wants to build more ships in America. He's warning that the U.S. is at risk of losing a biotechnology race with China and urging his colleagues to make it a higher priority.
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As I've written before, these are not the types of issues that land politicians on cable news, but it is the work that drives Young to keep going — presumably beyond 2028.
"I'm motivated to try and get more big things done and inclined to keep trying to do that for a while," Young told me during a recent conversation.
If Young directly challenges Trump on tariffs, or pretty much anything else, he could lose allies and become less productive on policy work. He'd also give fuel to Republican adversaries who'd like to further weaken his already damaged reelection prospects.
If you view Young from outside the confines of MAGA, you can argue that principles should drive him toward courageous self-inflicted obsolescence. But you can just as easily argue that something would be lost if Young went down.
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Young is navigating a political movement that has claimed the careers of so many other moderate Republicans. If he outlasts Trump, he could be the sole survivor in the tradition of former Sen. Richard Lugar. Young has sacrificed neither his conscience nor his influence.
Would Young throw away his career, his future, to take a stand against Trump? What line would Trump have to cross?
Young has maneuvered through six months of Trump's second term without showing his cards on those questions. Unlike so many other Republicans, Young remains upright, still keeping his balance.
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