Opener will test ‘brutal' breakdown

Otago Daily Times

2 days ago

All eyes on the breakdown. New Otago coach Mark Brown reckons his side's prospects in the NPC hinge on how they perform in that area.
They open their campaign against Southland in Invercargill today and they are well-equipped up front.
Veteran hooker Liam Coltman is back for another stint. Saula Ma'u and Abraham Pole are quality Super Rugby bookends.
Halfback Nathan Hastie and first five Cameron Millar shape as a very promising combination, although they have not played together as much as you might imagine.
They have only started one match together for Otago — that was against Southland in Invercargill last year — and have had just one start together for the Highlanders.
Winger Jona Nareki will be a big threat if he can stay fit, and midfielder Thomas Umaga-Jensen is a strong ball-carrier and adept at snaffling turnovers.
A fit Josh Timu is another significant asset, and the experienced Sam Gilbert will captain the side from fullback.
Otago will need some luck with their locks. They have whistled in Fijian Joseva Tamani and Will Tucker is a reliable performer.
But they have lost Fabian Holland to the All Blacks for the next, let's say, decade or so.
Oliver Haig can slot in at lock at a pinch, but he is injured at the moment.
The cupboard is a bit bare in that department and Otago will have to bring some development players through.
But the area Brown is mostly focused on is the breakdown.
All Black No8 Christian Lio-Willie will lead the charge today. He will be supported by Southern Magpies tackle-machine Harry Taylor and University powerhouse Will Stodart, who can also slot in at lock.
Kaikorai star Lucas Casey will provide cover from the bench.
It is a promising loose forward unit, but the Southland trio will present a stern challenge.
Burly Moana Pasifika loose forward Semisi Tupou-Ta'eiloa has been honing his craft alongside All Black Ardie Savea, and you need two trucks and a bus to stop him getting across the gainline now.
Sean Withy will captain the team from openside and the Highlanders loosie shapes as another major threat, while Taieri's Sam Fischli will pack down at blindside and he is a rugged campaigner.
"We want to be very brutal at the breakdown," Brown said when asked what sort of style fans could expect from Otago this season.
"Our breakdown is going to define our season.
"That's what we're going to give a real priority to. Then it's just a case of once we get opportunities to really play.
"We want to create a platform where there's a chance for everyone to express themselves.
"[The Southland trio] have good qualities, so we're under no illusion about what we are coming up against.
"But the breakdown's not just something that's influenced by the loose forwards.
"It's right across the field, so our backs will need to be just as proficient at the breakdown as our loose forwards."
Brown said the Otago camp was excited to start the campaign with a traditional match against Southland, who have turned the fixture into a must-watch event with their Stag Day promotion.
The rivalry has grown and, as Otago found out last season, Southland lift a notch.
They won the fixture 22-13 last year to wrestle the Donald Stuart Memorial off Otago.
You could argue that loss cost Otago a spot in the playoffs.
They won five of their 10 games last season.
Waikato and Counties-Manukau both won five as well. But they nabbed the final two playoff spots courtesy of a couple of extra bonus points.
Had Otago beaten the Stags, they would have made the quarterfinals.
Five wins were enough in 2023 to make the playoffs, and the cut-off is likely to be around the same mark again this season.
Brown is optimistic about Otago's prospects.
"I'm probably walking into this job at a really good time.
"Tom [Donnelly] has done great work with these boys for the last couple of years.
"Our target needs to be in the quarterfinals. So that is a non-negotiable."
"Looking at some of the squads that are rolling out this weekend, there's a lot of strength there.
"But I think the past couple of years have shown us that while the Super boys add something and make squads look strong, it's actually the guys that sit in behind that give them the depth.
"And those guys are the ones who have appeared at the back end of the season and made the difference.
"So, I'm really confident in the group that we've got sitting underneath our contracted squad."
Otago can expect the likes of winger Josh Whaanga and Haig to return in the next few weeks, and midfielder Jake Te Hiwi is having a run this weekend in the Tuppy Diack Shield.
The chances of exciting fullback Finn Hurley (quadriceps) pulling on an Otago jersey this season, however, look bleak.
"Whether he can be ready and we can set him up to play at the back end, I'm not too sure at this stage."
There is a late change to the Otago lineup. Prop Rohan Wingham has been ruled out and Moana Takataka will take his spot on the bench.
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NPC
Invercargill, 4.35pm
Otago: Sam Gilbert (captain), Charlie Powell, Josh Timu, Thomas Umaga-Jensen, Jona Nareki, Cameron Millar, Nathan Hastie, Christian Lio-Willie, Harry Taylor, Will Stodart, Joseva Tamani, Will Tucker, Saula Ma'u, Henry Bell, Abraham Pole:
Reserves: Liam Coltman, Ben Lopas, Moana Takataka, Charles Elton, Lucas Casey, Bob Martin, Jae Broomfield, Sam Nemec-Vial.
Southland: Rory van Vugt, Michael Manson, Isaac Te Tamaki, Matt Whaanga, Scott Gregory, Byron Smith, Nic Shearer, Semisi Tupou-Ta'eiloa, Sean Withy (captain), Sam Fischli, William Kirkwood, Mitchell Dunshea, Morgan Mitchell, Jack Taylor, Jack Sexton. Reserves: Aukustino Salanoa, Hunter Fahey, Paula Latu, Alefosio Aho, Cian Hurley, Connor Collins, Mika Muliaina, Faletoi Peni.
At a glance
Otago's recent NPC record2024: 5 wins, 5 losses (ninth place)2023: 3 wins, 7 losses (11th place)2022: 5 wins, 5 losses (5th in the odds pool)2021: 4 wins, 5 losses (runners-up in the championship)
2020: 6 wins, 5 losses (beaten semifinalist in the championship)
Three keys to success
■Otago coach Mark Brown has highlighted the breakdown as the key area for his side. Every other team will be targeting the same area. Turnovers are king and fast ruck ball is gold, especially when you play every other game on a dry track at Forsyth Barr Stadium.■Keeping your key players fit and on the field goes a long way towards having a successful NPC season. An injury or two among the Otago locking stocks would be a big problem. And there is no chance the All Blacks will give Fabian Holland back any time soon.
■Five of Otago's 10 games last year were decided by seven or fewer points. The difference between winning and losing often comes down to composure. That is when you need your game drivers like Cameron Millar to make good decisions.