Apple earnings are coming out postmarket Thursday. Here's what top analysts expect

CNBC

3 days ago

Apple is on the docket to release fiscal third-quarter earnings after the stock market close Thursday, with most analysts cautiously optimistic that the iPhone maker's June quarter will deliver results that at least match Wall Street expectations. Analysts estimate that Apple, led by CEO Tim Cook, will earn $1.33 per share on revenue of $89.54 billion, an LSEG survey shows. This would represent earnings growth of 2.4% and a revenue rise of 4.4% versus the same period a year ago. Apple beat Wall Street's forecasts for earnings and revenue in the fiscal second quarter that ended in March. But analysts were left disappointed after revenue at Apple's closely-watched Services business grew 11.7% in the March quarter, lighter than the 14.2% expansion seen in the same period in 2024. Another sore spot was Apple's wearables division, which declined 5% versus the same period a year ago. At the same time, sales fell year-over-year in Greater China in the March quarter, although they rose nearly 8% in the Americas, Apple's largest market. At the time, CEO Cook told CNBC's Steve Kovach there was no evidence consumer demand increased due to impending threat of tariffs. "We don't believe that there was a significant pull forward due to tariffs into the March quarter," Cook said then. "There's no obvious evidence of it." Shares of Apple have slumped 17% since the start of 2025, lagging far behind the 8.7% rise in the S & P 500. AAPL YTD mountain AAPL YTD chart Heading into earnings, however, most of Wall Street remains bullish on Apple, although some analysts express concern over Apple's artificial intelligence strategy versus its big-tech peers. LSEG data shows that 32 analysts covering the stock rate it a strong buy or buy, while 14 give it a hold and three rate it underperform. Here's what analysts at some of Wall Street's biggest banks are saying before Apple's latest earnings report, from least optimistic to most. Barclays: Underweight rating, $173 price target The bank's price target implies the risk of 17% downside ahead, based on Apple's Wednesday closing price of $209.05 per share. "We expect a slight June-Q beat led by better FX, iPhone and Mac upside, with Services about in-line. C2H25 looks to be risky on pull-in reversal and potential tariff impacts. We still see no major progress on AI for AAPL." Oppenheimer: Perform rating Oppenheimer doesn't provide a price target for Apple. "We take a neutral view into AAPL's F3Q25 earnings. We expect investors to focus on the revenue outlook for F4Q25 after normalizing the potential FX tailwind, Services revenue growth (maintaining [mid double digit] growth Y/Y), and the sales trend in Greater China (resumption of growth). Our neutral view assumes better sales near term on an FX tailwind plus healthy Services segment growth offset by a relatively weaker iPhone outlook due to an underwhelming hardware upgrade and the AI implementation." Needham: Hold Likewise, Needham doesn't have a price target. "We advise caution going into AAPL's FY3Q25 earnings call next week. We believe AAPL must articulate a GenAI action plan. AAPL is 1-2 years behind its Big Tech competitors, so any GenAI plan will be expensive to catch up through higher costs to the P & L and higher CapX, and maybe even an acquisition (which helps AAPL catch up faster), we believe." KeyBanc: Sector weight KeyBanc has no price forecast on the stock either. "We remain [sector weight] Apple and raise our F3Q estimates above consensus, while lowering our F4Q estimates below consensus … All things considered, we think iPhone should surprise positively and AAPL should deliver at the high end of its [low single digit-mid single digit] total revenue growth guidance for F3Q; however, we expect AAPL to guide F4Q to LSD +/-, where our F4Q/FY26 estimates are below consensus." UBS: Neutral, $210 price target The UBS price target implies shares will be little changed over the coming year. "Following two strong, well above seasonal months driven by fears of a potential iPhone price increase related to broad based tariffs, we estimate iPhone sell-through in the month of June declined 18% YoY as demand fizzled. Therefore, for the June quarter, we estimate iPhone units came in around 45M or up 3.4% YoY, roughly 1.5M above our prior estimate. Moreover, continued weakness in the U.S. dollar during the quarter should flip FX to a slight tailwind from prior expectations of a 'slight headwind' to revenue in the June quarter. As such, we slightly raise our June quarter estimates but lower Sept. given likely iPhone softness, below seasonal, given the prior pull-in." Bank of America: Buy, $235 price target Analyst Wamsi Mohan's target would translate into a gain of 12% for Apple over the coming year. "With better iPhone traction in China and strength in Services we expect an in-line report, and in-line to slight beat on revs for the guide (our F3Q rev/EPS are $90.2bn/$1.45 vs. Street $89.3bn/$1.43, and F4Q rev/EPS are $99.5bn/$1.66 vs. Street $98bn/$1.67)." Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $235 price target "June Q Product strength, better than feared Services growth, and FX supports upside to ests this qtr, with mgmt's Sept Q guide likely to bracket [Morgan Stanley estimates and consensus]. However, need more clarity on tariffs, the upcoming DOJ v. GOOGL remedy ruling, and AI strategy before sentiment can materially shift." Citigroup: Buy, $240 price target The bank's projection of where the stock should trade is 15% above its current price. "While we acknowledge upside from the pulled forward demand in the JunQ driven by tariffs pause and aggressive promotions in China, we remain cautious on the full year iPhone demand given AI delay and pending Section 232 decisions. We adjust our iPhone units forecast to be 45M/50M in JunQ/Sep-Q, up/down by 2M from 43M/52M prior. We keep our CY25/26 iPhone units forecasts largely unchanged at 226M/234M, or -0.5%/+3.1% Y/Y growth." Evercore ISI: Outperform, $250 price target The 12-month price forecast is 20% above Apple's Wednesday closing price. "Apple looks well positioned to report in-line/modest upside in the Jun-qtr with continued modest improvements in China and a tariff impact that is incorporated into their guidance. Investors will likely focus on the Sept-qtr guide with expectations for a q/q step down in gross margins given the tariff impact will be larger compared to Jun-qtr. Consensus is currently modeling only 10bps of q/q margin degradation for the Sept-qtr, which may be too low and we think the impact will be closer to 50bps+. There is also a fair bit of uncertainty around how does AAPL handle the Sept-qtr revenue guide with Services as the key wild card." JPMorgan: Overweight, $250 price target "We rate shares of Apple Overweight from the combination of AI and age of installed base led volume replacement cycle while Services continues to demonstrate robust growth delivering acceleration in earnings growth. That said, in relation to bull case without tailwinds from AI, we see the opportunity for investors to look for earnings growth through Services growth and margin expansion to be the primary driver of share price returns while awaiting further visibility in relation to AI & foldable phones led volume uplift heading into the iPhone 18 cycle." Goldman Sachs: Buy, $251 price target In a note last week, the bank trimmed its price target to $251 from $253, or roughly 20% above where shares of Apple closed on Wednesday. "The majority of gross profit growth over the next 5-years should be driven by Services, which should mark an inflection point in the Services investment narrative and support AAPL's premium multiple. The durability of Apple's installed base and the resulting revenue growth visibility from attaching more Services and Products is what underpins the recurring revenue — or Apple-as-a-Service — opportunity."