GOP field begins to emerge in 2026 race for Pennsylvania governor
But will Stacy Garrity run?
Virtually the entire Republican Party in Pennsylvania is waiting for the answer. The 2026 gubernatorial election race looms, and Garrity, the twice-elected state treasurer from Bradford County, has been the main focus of attention since U.S. Rep Dan Meuser removed himself from consideration.
"I will have an announcement about the future of my career in service very soon," Garrity said when asked about her plans.
Social media posts have hinted the 2022 Republican nominee, Sen. Doug Mastriano of Franklin County, might be thinking about another run. But attempts to obtain a comment from Mastriano were not successful, and higher-ups in the party say there has been little talk about the former nominee.
"I have not heard a soul discuss that he is running, or should run, or that he would have any support," said Jason Richey, Allegheny County Republican Committee chairman and a former gubernatorial candidate himself. "I think Stacy is going to announce. I think she is going to run."
State Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward of Westmoreland County said she hopes Garrity will run.
"She's a fighter. And she's smart. She's a really intelligent, thoughtful treasurer, and I think she would make a superb governor because she's got all the ingredients," Ward said. "I look forward to her announcement and being behind her 100%."
And Melissa Hart, an attorney in Allegheny County and former Republican congresswoman, said Garrity has the "inner strength" to go up against Shapiro - widely regarded as a very tough opponent. While he has not yet formally announced a bid for reelection, recent polling has shown more than twice as many Pennsylvanians approve of Shapiro's job performance than disapprove. And his national prominence was underscored by a Thursday night appearance on Stephen Colbert's late-night television show.
To Hart, who was once a state senator, hesitancy to declare candidacy is understandable. There's a "coarseness" in modern politics that did not used to be present, she said.
Hence, the "enthusiasm for running for office is not as healthy as it should be," she said.
Nonetheless, while Republican chatter focuses on an unannounced Garrity, other potential Republican candidates may be sitting on the sidelines, according to pollster Chris Borick. A political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Lehigh County, Borick said if Garrity chooses not to run, "you would probably see a bunch of candidates throw their hats in the ring."
In 2024, Garrity beat Democratic challenger Erin McClelland in the state treasurer's race by a 52%-to-46% margin in a field with five candidates. Her total of more than 3.5 million votes was the largest ever for a state-level candidate in Pennsylvania history, observers said.
The campaign raised eyebrows when Shapiro opted not to endorse McClelland, a fellow Democrat - a decision that may have been influenced by less-than-flattering social media posts made by McClelland concerning Shapiro.
The only hat in the ring for Democrats in the May 19, 2026, primary will likely belong to the 52-year-old Shapiro. He will ride into the 2026 contest on a long string of election victories - for state representative, Montgomery County commissioner, attorney general, and governor.
"Gov. Shapiro is in a very strong position, as most incumbent governors are," said former Republican state Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman of Centre County. To date, Corman said, things "have gone very well" for Shapiro but a lot could happen before the November 2026 general election.
In his first year on the job, Shapiro received a barrage of criticism from Republicans for a decision to line-item veto money for a voucher-style school scholarship program, a concept he had supported during during his election campaign.
They have consistently attacked his spending proposals as unsustainable - one senator said a Shapiro budget would "bankrupt" the state - and more recently, Republicans have attacked what they describe as a lack of transparency in the use of taxpayer-funded airplanes.
Some Republicans believe Shapiro's continued flirtation with a possible presidential run may sour some voters.
"Gov. Shapiro has always had his eye on his next office," Ward said. "Everything he has done, as far as I am concerned, has been calculated into 'How does that affect his run for president.' And I don't think that's a positive for Pennsylvania."
Since he was a finalist in Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris' 2024 search for a running mate, Shapiro has remained on the national stage. A late June Emerson College poll put Shapiro in a tie for fourth when Democratic primary voters nationwide were asked about a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Both Shapiro and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez polled at 7%, behind former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 16%, Harris with 13%, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 12%.
Shapiro will have national and state Democratic backing in the 2026 governor's race, according to state Sen. Jay Costa of Allegheny County, the top Democrat in the state Senate. Hanging on to the Pennsylvania governorship is "imperative" for the party, Costa said, and Shapiro and Lt. Gov. Austin Davis of McKeesport comprise "a very strong, formidable team."
Borick said that's a charge Republicans are sure to hurl at the governor regardless of who their candidate is. His likely response, Borick said, has already become apparent in his frequent appearances all over the state.
"He is saying, 'Look at my job performance. Look at where I am. Look at what I am doing,'" Borick said.
As July nears to a close, Shapiro is bogged down in closed-door negotiations for a state budget that had a deadline of June 30. How long it takes and how the spending plan is perceived will influence the upcoming campaign, multiple observers said.
And even though Garrity has not declared her intentions, friction has developed between supporters of Shapiro and those who plan to back Garrity.
Earlier this month, a Philadelphia-area union official said on social media that if Garrity ran for governor, she would never again have support from the union, "not even for county dog catcher." That and other comments raised the ire of Ward and other women in the Senate Republican caucus, who claimed they were sexist and meant to intimidate.
Costa, who said he saw the posts, rejected that notion and said the wording did not convey the message Republicans were trying to attach to it. Shapiro was asked about it during a public appearance on Wednesday, and he brushed it off.
"Here is what I know to be true. The Republicans will nominate someone to run against me for governor. Let them play that out - that deals with their politics on their side. I am going to continue doing my job, governing for all Pennsylvanians," he said.
That response drew more fire from Republican women in the Senate, who believed he failed to address the issue. Sen. Camera Bartolotta, R-Washington, said it was a "masterful" dodge of the topic.
Shapiro's win by more than 700,000 votes over Mastriano in 2022 came after the senator was the top vote-getter in a bruising, nine-way primary. The state Republican party wants to avoid a repeat of the chaotic scenario.
Its communications director, James Markley, said the GOP is working to narrow Democrats' registration advantage, which he put at less than than 70,000 "active" voters. The goal, he said, is to provide the eventual nominee with "the strongest infrastructure possible" for the campaign.
Garrity worked at Global Tungsten & Powders Corp. in Towanda in Bradford County for decades - eventually becoming a corporate vice president - but also served a full career in the Army Reserve, with three deployments.
Markley said Garrity has produced "real results" in multiple aspects of her life. And Borick, the pollster, said an opt-in from Garrity would set up a fascinating match.
"We don't see this very often in Pennsylvania politics - where you get two clear party stars to face off."
_____
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