An uneasy peace in Kashmir, one month on
A ceasefire is in place, but calm is elusive for people in the disputed region as tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors remain high.
The Indian military fired missiles at the Pakistani side on May 7 after a deadly attack on tourists in India-administered Kashmir in April. Islamabad denies involvement.
The situation quickly escalated into a tit-for-tat exchange of missiles and drones.
The two sides declared a truce, but India says it's only temporary.
India-controlled Kashmir used to be bustling with tourists. Not anymore. Tariq Ghani, secretary general of Jammu and Kashmir Hoteliers Club, says bookings are "about 10 to 15 percent" of the level before the confrontation. He thinks the tensions will hurt the local economy.
Meanwhile, people in the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir worry India may resume its offensive. Shaukat Hussain Mughal's home was destroyed in an Indian attack. He's prepared water, medicine and other necessities in case he has to evacuate to a shelter. His family has already fled.
"My life has completely changed," Hussain says. "I'm always feeling fearful."
Last month's hostilities left more than 50 civilians dead across both sides.
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The Diplomat
an hour ago
- The Diplomat
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His public musings about alternative plans likely sought to disorient Beijing and pressure it to negotiate. The only surprises in the Dalai Lama's announcement were its mildness, compared to his 2011 statement, and the fact that it did not say that he will be reincarnated outside China. These surprises might be part of an effort to seek a negotiated agreement with Beijing but are unlikely to change the big picture. Two claimants are likely to emerge after the passing of the current Dalai Lama: one supported by Beijing in China's Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and one supported by the Tibetan movement and the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) in Dharamsala, India. This prospect presents New Delhi with a huge dilemma. If two Dalai Lamas emerge, the Indian government will have to recognize one of them, either officially or in practice. And India will have to choose the Dalai Lama in Dharamsala for moral, domestic, and strategic reasons. Not only is the Dalai Lama deeply revered inside India, with many Indians feeling that their country has a moral obligation to help both him and the Tibetan movement, but New Delhi likely recognizes that the Dalai Lama represents an important lever vis-à-vis China, India's so-called 'Tibet card.' However, supporting the Dalai Lama claimant in Dharamsala will be perceived by China as a direct challenge to Chinese sovereignty over Tibet. China's retaliation is likely to be severe and might involve provocations along the disputed border, increased support for separatists in India's unstable Northeast, or shifts in Beijing's position on the Kashmir dispute. Hence, the reincarnation dilemma for India is not which Dalai Lama to choose but how to support the one in Dharamsala without provoking a huge crisis in relations with China. Behind this dilemma lurk the bigger questions about the future of the CTA and Tibetan movement in India as well as the role of the Tibet issue in China-India relations. Fortunately, India has long prepared to confront the reincarnation dilemma. New Delhi has likely drawn plans or at least carefully considered how to handle the complex politics of the reincarnation, the possibility of mass instability in Tibet after the Dalai Lama's passing, and Beijing's policy responses to these and to India's positions. Unfortunately, the changing international context has complicated India's plans. There are four ways in which the international context of the Dalai Lama's reincarnation in recent years has shifted and, hence, made New Delhi's reincarnation dilemma more difficult. First, the rivalry between China and India has greatly intensified, raising the likelihood of conflict. 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India's Modi flies to UK to sign trade deal with Starmer
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