Gold ETF has beaten Nifty ETF 7 times in 10 years. How to invest now?
commodity based ETFs have outperformed Nifty50
ETF
around 70% of the times in the last 10 years, an analysis by ETMutualFunds showed. In other words, Since calendar year 2016 to 2025 so far, gold ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 based ETFs seven out of 10 times.
For the analysis, we considered the average return of all Nifty50 based ETFs in the last 10 calendar years and gold based ETFs in the same period separately.
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A deep dive into the data showed that from 2016 to 2025 so far, gold ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 ETFs in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024 and 2025 so far. In calendar year 2016 where Nifty50 ETFs gave an average return of 3.31%, Gold ETFs gave an average return of 10.47%.
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Similarly in 2018, 2019, and 2020 gold ETFs gave 7.02%, 22.94%, and 26.24% average returns respectively against an average return of 4.28%, 13.34%, and 15.73% in the same time period respectively.
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In 2022, gold ETFs gave 14.10% average return compared to an average return of 5.53% by Nifty50 ETFs. In 2024, gold based ETFs gave an average return of 18.49% against an average return of 9.98% by Nifty50 ETFs.
On the contrary, in 2017, Nifty50 ETFs outshined by delivering an average return of 28.12% against an average return of 2.74% by gold ETFs. On one side where gold ETFs lost 4.48%, Nifty50 ETFs gave 23.72% average return.
With gold ETFs outperforming Nifty50 ETFs in the current calendar year so far, Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services said that Gold prices remained firm above $3,350/oz last week, reflecting a cautious yet supportive macro backdrop shaped by dovish commentary from key Federal Reserve officials, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and tariff-driven inflation concerns.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his preference for a July rate cut to cushion economic risks, reinforcing expectations of 45 basis points of easing by year-end, even though the upcoming July 30 FOMC meeting is largely expected to result in a hold and his comments drove US Treasury yields and the dollar index lower, supporting gold, which benefits in a lower rate environment, Singh added.
Simultaneously, other factors have kept safe-haven flows resilient, with the World Gold Council reporting a 26% YTD rally and projecting a further 0–5% upside under base case scenarios, or 10–15% if stagflationary or recessionary conditions materialize, the analyst mentioned.
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Gold ETFs witnessed 600% surge in monthly inflows to Rs 2,080 crore in June. In May, gold ETFs received an inflow of Rs 291.91 crore after witnessing outflows for two consecutive months. In March and April, gold ETFs witnessed an outflow of Rs 77.21 crore and Rs 5.82 crore respectively.
The total assets under management of gold ETFs was recorded at Rs 64,777 crore as on June 30, 2025 witnessing a surge of 4% from AUM of Rs 62,452 crore in May. On a yearly basis, the AUM has grown by 89% from an AUM of Rs 34,355 crore as on June 30, 2024.
'ETF inflows and steady central bank buying continue to underpin the broader bullish narrative, while the US dollar's worst start to a year since 1973 remains a tailwind. On the domestic front, MCX gold futures hovered around Rs 97,400 per 10 grams, with strong support at Rs 96,500 – 95,900 and resistance near Rs 99,800. In the week ahead, traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Powell's speech, China's loan prime rate decision, and key US macro releases including PMI and durable goods orders, which could shift interest rate expectations and determine the next directional impulse for gold globally and on MCX,' Jain said.
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