Covid cases surge in India: Will it trigger a stock market crash?
advertisement
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Economic Times
8 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Don't short this market; better days ahead post tariff resolution: Ajay Bagga
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian markets ," says Ajay Bagga , Market three major factors were pressuring the Indian markets on Friday. If we look globally, markets were down—MSCI Asia closed 1% lower, MSCI Europe, midway through the session, was down about 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets were down 0.7%. So, the correction was reason behind this is, firstly, the strong recovery from April onwards. We saw a dip approaching the July deadlines, which were then rolled over to August 1st. As we approach that date, markets are reacting to the heavy news flow expected next week, including the Fed meeting and the August 1st deadline. Global markets are a bit cautious, and Indian markets are reflecting this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the Nifty , largely driven by FPI selling, which is more due to valuation concerns. Nifty's one-year forward P/E is still around 23.5 times. The expectation was that, given last year's slowdown from March to September, this year's June YoY numbers would benefit from the base effect, and we'd see double-digit overall earnings growth—but that hasn't far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian a confusing market. Let me give you two quick pharma. Despite President Trump promising tariffs on pharma by the end of the week, we saw a rally in the sector on Friday. That's puzzling, as pharma is one of the sectors most at risk this look at the broader market: ₹1.5 lakh crore worth of shares have been offloaded by promoters and PE funds with minimal impact cost. The market has absorbed it. The primary market is in a frenzy—we are headed for a historic high in fundraises. The QIP for the biggest bank came in at ₹25,000 crore and attracted bids worth over ₹1 lakh there's ample liquidity and appetite. Retail investors are providing an exit to FPIs. It's a bipolar market—retailers are buying while institutions are exiting, and that sentiment is keeping the market resilient. When this sentiment shifts—and a big trigger could be the India-US tariff announcement expected around mid to late August—there could be a major FPI short squeeze (currently 85% net short).So, I wouldn't recommend shorting this market. I'd recommend having faith in it. We'll see better days once the uncertainty around US tariffs is the UK FTA, the UK Parliament has approved it, but it may take a year to implement. So, let's wait and see. It'll benefit labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, small machinery, chemicals, organics, and seafood. Indian professionals working in the UK on short-term visas could save an estimated ₹4,000 crore annually—a significant it's a positive development, but the markets haven't reacted much yet—possibly because implementation details are still unclear, and the UK Parliament has yet to finalise surprising how auto stocks started moving up mid-week. I was taken aback because the fundamentals are quite weak. Demand is suffering. The only bright spots are tractors and possibly India, there's a divide: urban consumption is still challenged, while rural consumption is relatively strong. So, auto companies that cater to rural markets will do better. Tractor sales are expected to cross 1 million this year—that's a good sign, and we should see better margins for tractor motorcycles—are mostly sold in semi-urban and rural areas (60-70%). They should perform well. Once the harvest season arrives in October, we could see further the rest of the segment is under pressure. We're facing risks from Chinese rare earth exports—EV production has already been cut in July and could halt in August if we don't get essential components like top of that, the Trump tariffs—25% on auto and auto ancillaries—are already in place. Global auto majors like Volvo, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and GM have each estimated earnings hits between $500 million and $1 billion due to these tariffs. So, it's hard to see how smaller Indian players will escape the fallout.I wouldn't bet on the auto segment just yet—unless India secures a carve-out similar to Japan's 15% tariff. If we get that, auto stocks could rally. But as of now, it's a binary and difficult decision. Fundamentals are weak, but news flow could flip the I'd say: start nibbling slowly, but wait till August. Once there's more clarity on India's tariff treatment, especially from the US, we'll have a better sense of direction.
Mint
8 minutes ago
- Mint
How Indian airlines are benefiting from Look East Policy
For years, successive governments have had the 'Look East' policy to work with the South East Asian nations and offer a counterbalance to China's influence in the region. In 2014, this 'Look East' was converted to 'Act East' with a focus on economic connections, defence co-operation, and most importantly, people-to-people connect. The people-to-people connect part has greatly benefited the airlines, with the winners being Indian carriers in some cases, while foreign carriers in others. The change has been drastic from pre-COVID times to today and has been fuelled by the need from ASEAN to replace or hedge Chinese tourists, who remained away for a longer period due to restrictions in place by the Chinese government on travel. This meant that tourism-heavy economies like Thailand started offering incentives like free visas for Indians to travel, leading to a spurt in tourist traffic. Overall, the India-ASEAN market has been a mix of new connections, increased services and a growth like no other. Data obtained from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, exclusively for this article, shows that there has been a giant leap in connectivity, with Indian carriers also benefiting from this. In December 2019, the last full month of operations in the world before COVID started taking its toll, India did not have a connection with Brunei, Laos, the Philippines and Cambodia among the 10 ASEAN nations. Today, Royal Brunei operates a thrice-a-week service to Chennai; Air Cambodia flies twice a week to Delhi; Air India is starting flights to Manila in September while Laos remains the only blank spot right now. Among all the countries and connectivity, the India-Vietnam connectivity has seen a new high. From just 21 flights a week in December 2019, the connectivity has now gone up to 82 weekly flights. However, only 21 out of these are operated by Indian carriers — 14 by IndiGo and seven by Air India. The rest are being operated by the two Vietnamese carriers, Vietnam Airlines and VietJet. Their network in India has spanned to Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Kochi, Delhi and Hyderabad to connect to Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, after having tried a few other variations. Overall, the seats went up nearly four times, and frequencies have gone up three times. While the India-Vietnam sector has seen the foreign carriers rule over Indian ones, the story is exactly opposite to Indonesia. By December 2019, all the Indonesian carriers had pulled out of India where multiple variations like non-stop and one-stop flights via Kuala Lumpur or Bangkok had been tried to connect Jakarta and Bali to points in India. On the other side of COVID, IndiGo and Vistara (later Air India) have 21 weekly frequencies to Indonesia, with IndiGo operating a daily flight to Jakarta from Mumbai and to Bali from Bengaluru while Air India operates to Bali from Delhi. The India-Malaysia market has remained more or less the same, with a slight drop. There are 42,124 weekly seats each way across 222 frequencies between India and Malaysia. While IndiGo reduced its presence at Kuala Lumpur, it added flights to Penang and Langkawi from Chennai and Bengaluru respectively, while Air India returned to Kuala Lumpur. The Malaysian carriers have shrunk 11 per cent even though they have tried multiple options having maxed out on seats to metros due to bilateral restrictions. The India-Singapore market comprises 57,611 weekly seats across 247 flights this August, a slump of 10 per cent compared to 2019. The Singaporean side has shrunk by 8 per cent since 2019, while the Indian side has remained constant. August also sees seasonal variations to Singapore and often sees drop in capacity by seats or frequencies. The biggest gainer for seats in the market between pre-COVID and today has been Thailand. This also is the biggest market among the three nations by seats on offer. There was an addition of 35 weekly frequencies and a growth of 10 per cent in connectivity between India and Thailand. The connectivity recalibrated with new points being connected, like Surat-Bangkok, Pune-Bangkok, Bhubaneshwar-Bangkok, Bengaluru-Krabi, Kolkata-Phuket, among others. The Indian carriers grew close to 25 per cent in the India-Thailand market, taking a fair share even after the fall of Go Air, while the Thai carriers shrank about 5 per cent. The total seats on offer each week between India and Thailand stands at 71,350. The people connect is driven by affordability and opening up of new connections, making it far easier to visit tourist destinations like Krabi, Phuket, Langkawi, Penang or Bali. The total cost, often a true measure of holiday expenditure, dictates the travel plans and Indonesia, Vietnam or Thailand stand out compared to the Maldives, where there was a diplomatic row last year, or European destinations which not only are expensive but also have challenges and lead time issues for visa. The strategic dependence on Indian tourism bodes well for the country as a whole, even when we struggle to attract as many foreigners and the international traffic is dominated by Indians travelling abroad.
Time of India
21 minutes ago
- Time of India
Don't short this market; better days ahead post tariff resolution: Ajay Bagga
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian markets ," says Ajay Bagga , Market three major factors were pressuring the Indian markets on Friday. If we look globally, markets were down—MSCI Asia closed 1% lower, MSCI Europe, midway through the session, was down about 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets were down 0.7%. So, the correction was reason behind this is, firstly, the strong recovery from April onwards. We saw a dip approaching the July deadlines, which were then rolled over to August 1st. As we approach that date, markets are reacting to the heavy news flow expected next week, including the Fed meeting and the August 1st deadline. Global markets are a bit cautious, and Indian markets are reflecting this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the Nifty , largely driven by FPI selling, which is more due to valuation concerns. Nifty's one-year forward P/E is still around 23.5 times. The expectation was that, given last year's slowdown from March to September, this year's June YoY numbers would benefit from the base effect, and we'd see double-digit overall earnings growth—but that hasn't far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian a confusing market. Let me give you two quick pharma. Despite President Trump promising tariffs on pharma by the end of the week, we saw a rally in the sector on Friday. That's puzzling, as pharma is one of the sectors most at risk this look at the broader market: ₹1.5 lakh crore worth of shares have been offloaded by promoters and PE funds with minimal impact cost. The market has absorbed it. The primary market is in a frenzy—we are headed for a historic high in fundraises. The QIP for the biggest bank came in at ₹25,000 crore and attracted bids worth over ₹1 lakh there's ample liquidity and appetite. Retail investors are providing an exit to FPIs. It's a bipolar market—retailers are buying while institutions are exiting, and that sentiment is keeping the market resilient. When this sentiment shifts—and a big trigger could be the India-US tariff announcement expected around mid to late August—there could be a major FPI short squeeze (currently 85% net short).So, I wouldn't recommend shorting this market. I'd recommend having faith in it. We'll see better days once the uncertainty around US tariffs is the UK FTA, the UK Parliament has approved it, but it may take a year to implement. So, let's wait and see. It'll benefit labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, small machinery, chemicals, organics, and seafood. Indian professionals working in the UK on short-term visas could save an estimated ₹4,000 crore annually—a significant it's a positive development, but the markets haven't reacted much yet—possibly because implementation details are still unclear, and the UK Parliament has yet to finalise surprising how auto stocks started moving up mid-week. I was taken aback because the fundamentals are quite weak. Demand is suffering. The only bright spots are tractors and possibly India, there's a divide: urban consumption is still challenged, while rural consumption is relatively strong. So, auto companies that cater to rural markets will do better. Tractor sales are expected to cross 1 million this year—that's a good sign, and we should see better margins for tractor motorcycles—are mostly sold in semi-urban and rural areas (60-70%). They should perform well. Once the harvest season arrives in October, we could see further the rest of the segment is under pressure. We're facing risks from Chinese rare earth exports—EV production has already been cut in July and could halt in August if we don't get essential components like top of that, the Trump tariffs—25% on auto and auto ancillaries—are already in place. Global auto majors like Volvo, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and GM have each estimated earnings hits between $500 million and $1 billion due to these tariffs. So, it's hard to see how smaller Indian players will escape the fallout.I wouldn't bet on the auto segment just yet—unless India secures a carve-out similar to Japan's 15% tariff. If we get that, auto stocks could rally. But as of now, it's a binary and difficult decision. Fundamentals are weak, but news flow could flip the I'd say: start nibbling slowly, but wait till August. Once there's more clarity on India's tariff treatment, especially from the US, we'll have a better sense of direction.
