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India Today
23-06-2025
- Business
- India Today
Stock market opening: Sensex, Nifty to crash today after US attack on Iran?
Sensex and Nifty are anticipated to open lower on Monday, influenced by Asian market trends as investors closely monitor potential retaliatory actions by Iran following a US attack on its nuclear Gift Nifty futures, as of 8:10 am, were trading at 25,015, indicating a lower opening compared to the previous close of 25,112.4. Benchmark indexes rose about 1.6% last week, driven by gains in financial sector stocks, which provided some cushion against the geopolitical recent US attack, conducted alongside Israel, marks a big military action against Iran since 1979. Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities Pvt Ltd, said that the US has carried out the attacks, but market is slowly trying to habituate it to these geopolitical escalations in the recent past."That is the reason on Friday also market responded in a very positive way, but markets are expected to be in a consolidation phase, around this 25,000 levels of NIFTY, but market also going to observe keenly the further escalation and retaliation from Iran also.," he added. IMPACT OF CRUDE OILCrude oil prices have seen a spike, reaching a five-month-high, adding to market concerns."For markets, how the crude oil behavior that is extremely crucial at this point of time. So, crude oil price and the geopolitical worries, they are going to weigh on the market in the medium to short term. The markets are expected to be in a consolidation phase," Bathini increase in oil prices is particularly problematic for India, which depends heavily on imports for its energy needs, potentially leading to inflation and a rise in the fiscal deficit. The surge in oil prices could also be detrimental to corporate earnings growth as they could raise input Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, offered some technical insights, stating, "We can expect Nifty to gain support between 25,000 and 24,950 and notice resistance between 25,260 and 25,300 in this session."Such levels are crucial as traders seek stability amidst the current geopolitical tensions. Most Asian stocks have opened lower, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index down over 1%, reflecting these concerns. Additionally, fears that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil and gas, continue to loom large over the market's reaction to these events will be closely monitored by investors looking for signs of stability or further volatility in the coming days.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)Must Watch
India Today
22-05-2025
- Business
- India Today
Covid cases surge in India: Will it trigger a stock market crash?
The market rally on Dalal Street came to a pause on Thursday against the backdrop of rising Covid-19 cases in India and other parts of Asia as both Sensex and Nifty saw a sharp S&P BSE Sensex had dropped by over 900 points to 80,681.76, while the NSE Nifty50 was down 266 points at 24,547.45 as of 12:45 pm. The fall in the market comes after days of strong recent decline in the stock market has come at a time when Covid-19 cases are slowly increasing again. Kerala has reported 182 cases in May alone, while cities like Mumbai, Chennai and Ahmedabad have seen small but noticeable spikes in India, several Asian countries have also seen a rise in cases. Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand are currently reporting more infections, sparking concerns that the virus might be making a slow COVID BEHIND THE MARKET DROP?The fall in the markets has raised the question: Should investors worry about the rising Covid cases?Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities Pvt Ltd, said that the early signs of rising cases could be one reason behind the fall in some sectors."There is a sense of worrying factor there. That is the reason we can see some kind of an uptick in healthcare, diagnostic stocks and also in pharma stocks,' he added, 'Whether it is just the beginning or a sign of something bigger, we will have to wait and see. Right now, it is premature to say anything definite about Covid cases because numbers are still low and mostly in single digits in many states. The next few weeks will be important to watch.'Bathini also pointed out that the overall market conditions remain stable."The market has outperformed in the last month after touching a high of 25,500 range. What we are witnessing is some kind of profit booking because of global cues, US debt worries and also US downgrades, which is creating pressure on the market in the short to medium term."He explained that Nifty seems to be forming a base between 24,500 and 25,000.'We had a decent earnings season. There were no major negative surprises. There is stock-specific action happening now as we are at the far end of the earnings season,' he there is some concern, experts say there is no need to panic yet.'Investors are a bit more seasoned now when it comes to COVID news. Pharma might see some defensive interest, but overall, market fundamentals remain strong. Volatility? Maybe. Panic? Unlikely,' said Trivesh, COO of Tradejini.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)Must Watch advertisement
India Today
20-05-2025
- Business
- India Today
Is the defence stock party over? Here's what investors need to know
The rally in defence stocks on Dalal Street came to a halt, with shares across the sector falling on Tuesday due to profit booking and concerns over high prices. This comes after a strong rally that pushed many defence stocks to record of Paras Defence and Cochin Shipyard dropped more than 6% each during the day. The broader Nifty India Defence index was also down by 1.4% around 11:50 am. This was the second day in a row that defence stocks saw a fall, following several weeks of recent fall in defence shares has come after a steep rise. Since February, the total market value of defence companies has jumped by almost 50%, reaching around Rs 11.2 lakh crore by mid-May. This surge was driven by hopes linked to 'Operation Sindoor' and growing interest in India's local defence further back, the Nifty Defence index has risen by 350% between July 2022 and July 2024. However, by February 2025, the index had dropped 38% as the market became cautious. Operation Sindoor gave new life to defence stocks, sparking another rally over the past few Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities Pvt Ltd, the recent rise in defence stocks has been sharp and fast."Defence stocks have rallied strongly and there is a lot of euphoria in defence stocks. On average, defence stocks have rallied nearly 30 to 40%. So, one can book some profits in the medium to short term, but one can buy on dips further in the defence stocks are concerned. Long term outlook is bullish, but in the medium term, given the kind of rally that we witnessed, it is better to take some profit from the table in defence stocks," he also pointed out that defence shares have gone up quite a bit over the last two weeks."Defence stocks in the last fortnight and last one week have witnessed a stellar rally. Now the stocks are entering into a consolidation zone, we are witnessing some kind of profit booking. All these stocks have rallied nearly 40 to 50 percent from its recent lows," he short-term investors may want to lock in profits, Bathini believes that the long-term story for defence companies remains intact.'They are fairly valued at this point of time. The long-term order book and earning visibility is strong for these defence companies. On a longer-term basis, the defence stocks are going to rally,' he also had advice for those wondering what to do next.'But in the medium to short term, some kind of profit booking is taking place. Investors who made stellar returns in the recent past can take some profit from the table due to the strong rally that we witnessed. But the long-term trend is positive trend. The long-term investors can hold on to their stocks, hold on to their positions. Any dip in defence stocks, definitely it's a buy,' Bathini The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)
India Today
09-05-2025
- Business
- India Today
India-Pakistan tension: What should investors do as Sensex, Nifty trade in red?
Dalal Street opened in red as tensions between India and Pakistan have increased, and stock market investors are growing more and Nifty were trading in red, at the time the article was being written. This was expected after news of cross-border drone attacks and a sharp response from India raised concerns in the financial 9:43 am, the S&P BSE Sensex had fallen by 507.64 points to 79,827.17, while the NSE Nifty50 dropped 160 points to 24,113.80. Most shares and sectors were trading lower, with only a few managing to stay in the "Stay invested, corporate profits are going to do well in the coming quarters and years also. So nothing to worry, stay invested and participate in India's growth story," said Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities Pvt Ltd. INVESTORS ADVISED TO STAY CALMDr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said investors should not panic or sell in a hurry."Investors should not panic and exit from the market now. Remain invested, monitor the developments and wait for the dust to settle," he explained that the market has not fallen as much as one would expect during such a situation. According to him, "Under normal circumstances, on a day like this, the market would have suffered deep cuts. But this is unlikely due to two reasons."advertisementVijayakumar pointed out that India has shown strong defence capability so far, and this could stop the conflict from escalating further. "The conflict, so far, has demonstrated India's clear superiority in conventional warfare, and therefore, further escalation of the conflict will inflict huge damage to Pakistan," he second reason, he said, is the strong global and domestic economic position of India."The market is inherently resilient supported by global and domestic macros. Weak dollar and potentially weakening US and Chinese economies are good for the Indian market. The domestic macros construct is further rendered stronger by the high GDP growth expected this year and the declining interest rate environment," he also mentioned that foreign investors have been actively buying stocks over the last sixteen trading Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, said that while the market has remained steady despite tensions, it is best to be cautious at this time."Despite ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, our markets have shown resilience due to the relatively low impact of US tariffs and successful free trade agreements with major trade partners, including the UK," she added that decisions by the US Federal Reserve have not had much effect on India's monetary policy. However, she urged investors to tread carefully. "Given the situation at the India-Pakistan border, I advise market participants to adopt a cautious investment approach during this phase," Ambala suggested that people who want to invest should wait for a small correction. "Those planning to invest should look for opportunities around a 4% to 5% dip in index levels," she also pointed out that the India VIX, which measures market fear, had jumped nearly 10% during the manage risks better, she recommended using hedging strategies. For long-term investors, though, Ambala believes that the overall trend is still positive. "For long-term investors, the major trend remains bullish," she added."Nifty could gain support between 24,200 and 24,050 and face resistance near 24,450 and 24,520. Similarly, Bank Nifty could gather support between 54,300 and 54,000 and meet resistance near 55,100 and 55,350," Ambala said."Based on the current price action and macroeconomic factors, I recommend that market participants adopt a sell-on-rise strategy," she said.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)Must Watch
India Today
08-05-2025
- Business
- India Today
Pakistan's forex is slipping fast. More trouble ahead for already debt-ridden economy?
Pakistan shut its airspace for India after the government took strict diplomatic actions following the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir. Pakistan's move was aimed at hurting India but seems to have hit its already debt-ridden economy further, losing out on crucial forex. The country had only just started to see some signs of recovery after coming close to defaulting on its debt in 2022. A bailout by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including a loan of $2 billion in March this year, gave Pakistan some breathing room. But the current situation could undo much of that progress. Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities Pvt Ltd, said, 'Pakistan's economy is not doing well. The economy is running on debt from various global agencies. Any rise in the ongoing geopolitical tensions will definitely put more pressure on the economy. Moody's has also said that any further escalation by Pakistan will worsen its economic condition.' FOREX TROUBLES GROW AS AIRSPACE EMPTIES Pakistan's decision to block Indian aircraft has not just affected Indian airlines but also impacted many global carriers. As tensions grow, several international airlines are also choosing to avoid Pakistani airspace. This means Pakistan is losing out on overflight fees, a key source of foreign exchange. Rajeev Mantri, founder and managing director of Navam Capital, said on social media that Pakistan's move will badly hit its fragile economy. 'Loss of overflight fees will be a very meaningful forex loss for a forex-starved country like Pakistan, which has no export competitive industries at all,' he said. His remarks were made in response to a journalist's post showing live radar data with fewer flights using Pakistani airspace. With Indian carriers like Air India and IndiGo taking longer routes to avoid Pakistan, the cost for Pakistan is far greater in terms of lost revenue than the extra expense for the airlines. Entrepreneur Arun Pudur also noted that global airlines were steering clear of Pakistan. In a tweet on May 5, he said only about 15 flights were now using Pakistan's airspace. 'Top airlines — Air France, BA, Emirates, Lufthansa — are avoiding it. Huge blow to Islamabad's forex from overflight fees worth hundreds of millions,' he wrote. India is the third-largest aviation market in the world and continues to grow quickly. This makes overflight fees from Indian carriers an important income source for Pakistan. With Indian airlines now avoiding Pakistan's airspace, that income has dropped sharply. A Pakistani user recently shared a video showing an Indian flight taking a longer path due to the airspace closure. While the user mocked the route, many pointed out that the real loss was for Pakistan. Naren Menon, an Indian social media user, replied saying, 'Pakistan loses 'overflight fees' from the 3rd largest (and fastest-growing) aviation market in the world. That's easily hundreds of millions of USD every year.' When someone asked if Pakistan could still earn from other airlines, Menon explained that many west-bound flights from India are operated by Indian carriers. That makes the revenue loss both large and immediate. REPEATING 2019'S LOSSES? This is not the first time Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. A similar move in 2019, after India's response to the Pulwama terror attack, had led to nearly $100 million in losses. At that time, about 400 flights were being diverted daily. Reports estimated daily losses of $232,000 from overflight charges, and a combined $760,000 per day when other costs such as terminal navigation and airline route disruptions were included. Moody's, the global credit rating agency, has also warned that any conflict with India could hurt Pakistan's economic progress. In a recent report, it said, 'Sustained escalation in tensions with India would likely weigh on Pakistan's growth and hamper the government's ongoing fiscal consolidation, setting back Pakistan's progress in achieving macroeconomic stability.' Moody's further added that if the current standoff continues, it could affect Pakistan's access to foreign loans and put more pressure on its foreign currency reserves. This could make it harder for the country to repay its international debts.
