Details in satellite photos spark 'worrying' prediction about colony of thousands
Distant images snapped by satellites have revealed emperor penguin numbers have fallen lower than even the most pessimistic estimates. Over 15 years, numbers appear to have fallen by 22 per cent across the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea.
The staggering new population estimate was published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications: Earth & Environment by researchers from the British Antarctic Survey. The survey covers 30 per cent of the continent's emperor penguins, so now the team is broadening its focus to examine whether the results are reflective of the situation across the entire continent.
Dr Peter Fretwell, an expert in studying wildlife from space, said there can be 'quite a bit of uncertainty' in his line of work. 'This new count isn't necessarily symbolic of the rest of the continent. But if it is, that's worrying because the decline is worse than the worst-case projections we have for emperors this century,' he said.
Counting emperor penguins is dangerous on land, so scientists instead estimate numbers by examining large huddles of birds captured in high-resolution satellite images. It's believed there are around 500,000 to 600,000 emperor penguins in the wild, compared to an estimated 8.2 billion people.
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Globally, the consensus is that emperor penguins declined by 9.5 per cent across Antarctica between 2009 and 2018. This put them on track to be close to extinction in 75 years if the climate continues to warm at current rates, although one study has suggested it could be much sooner. The new data looks at numbers between 2009 to 2024.
Melting sea ice, directly caused by the burning of fossil fuels like gas, coal and oil, is believed to be the primary cause of their demise. Emperor penguins need icy platforms at the edge of the ocean to be stable for at least eight months of the year.
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The problem was highlighted in 2022, when a satellite captured the horror moment thousands of baby emperor penguins died after sea ice collapsed beneath them.
The dramatic decline in numbers has led researchers to believe that climate change is contributing to other issues that are challenging the species like changing storm, snow and rainfall patterns.
The study's co-author Dr Phil Trathan has warned the only way to ensure there is more than a 'few' emperor penguins by 2100 is to stabilise greenhouse emissions.
"The fact that we're moving to a position faster than the computer models project means there must be other factors we need to understand in addition to loss of breeding habitat,' he said.
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