Latest news with #populationDecline
CBS News
10-06-2025
- Science
- CBS News
Emperor penguin population decline may be "worse than the worst-case projections," scientists warn
Emperor penguin populations in Antartica may be declining faster than the most pessimistic predictions, scientists said after analyzing satellite images of a key part of the continent. The images, spanning from 2009 to 2024, suggest a decline of 22% in the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea, according to researchers from the British Antarctic Survey and University of Southampton, who published their study in Nature on Tuesday. The 16 emperor penguin colonies in that part of Antartica represent a third of the global population. The estimated decline compares to an earlier estimate of a 9.5% reduction across Antarctica as a whole between 2009 and 2018. The researchers now have to see if their assessment in that region of Antartica is true for the rest of the continent. "There's quite a bit of uncertainty in this type of work and what we've seen in this new count isn't necessarily symbolic of the rest of the continent," Dr. Peter Fretwell, the lead author of the study, said in a statement. "But if it is — that's worrying because the decline is worse than the worst-case projections we have for emperors this century." While further analysis is needed, Fretwell told Agence France-Presse the colonies studied were considered representative. Researchers know that climate change is driving the losses, but the speed of the declines is a particular cause for alarm. Warming is thinning and destabilizing the ice under the penguins' feet in their breeding grounds. Emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) pair on sea ice, Larsen B Ice Shelf, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Sergio Pitamitz/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images In recent years some colonies have lost all their chicks because the ice has given way beneath them, plunging hatchlings into the sea before they were old enough to cope with the freezing ocean. Fretwell said the new research suggests penguin numbers have been declining since the monitoring began in 2009. That is even before global warming was having a major impact on the sea ice, which forms over open water adjacent to land in the region. But he said the culprit is still likely to be climate change, with warming driving other challenges for the penguins, such as higher rainfall or increasing encroachment from predators. "Emperor penguins are probably the most clear-cut example of where climate change is really showing its effect," Fretwell said. "There's no fishing. There's no habitat destruction. There's no pollution which is causing their populations to decline. It's just the temperatures in the ice on which they breed and live, and that's really climate change." Emperor penguins number about a quarter of a million breeding pairs, all in Antarctica, according to a 2020 study. A baby emperor penguin emerges from an egg kept warm in winter by a male, while the female in a breeding pair embarks on a two-month fishing expedition. When she returns to the colony, she feeds the hatchling by regurgitating and then both parents take turns to forage. To survive on their own, chicks must develop waterproof feathers, a process that typically starts in mid-December. The new research uses high resolution satellite imagery during the months of October and November, before the region is plunged into winter darkness. Fretwell said future research could use other types of satellite monitoring, like radar or thermal imaging, to capture populations in the darker months, as well as expand to the other colonies. He said there is hope that the penguins may go further south to colder regions in the future but added that it is not clear "how long they're going to last out there". Computer models have projected that the species will be near extinction by the end of the century if humans do not slash their planet-heating emissions. The latest study suggests the picture could be even worse. "We may have to rethink those models now with this new data," said Fretwell. But he stressed there was still time to reduce the threat to the penguins. "We've got this really depressing picture of climate change and falling populations even faster than we thought but it's not too late," he said. "We're probably going to lose a lot of emperor penguins along the way, but if people do change, and if we do reduce or turn around our climate emissions, then then we will save the emperor penguin."
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Details in satellite photos spark 'worrying' prediction about colony of thousands
Distant images snapped by satellites have revealed emperor penguin numbers have fallen lower than even the most pessimistic estimates. Over 15 years, numbers appear to have fallen by 22 per cent across the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea. The staggering new population estimate was published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications: Earth & Environment by researchers from the British Antarctic Survey. The survey covers 30 per cent of the continent's emperor penguins, so now the team is broadening its focus to examine whether the results are reflective of the situation across the entire continent. Dr Peter Fretwell, an expert in studying wildlife from space, said there can be 'quite a bit of uncertainty' in his line of work. 'This new count isn't necessarily symbolic of the rest of the continent. But if it is, that's worrying because the decline is worse than the worst-case projections we have for emperors this century,' he said. Counting emperor penguins is dangerous on land, so scientists instead estimate numbers by examining large huddles of birds captured in high-resolution satellite images. It's believed there are around 500,000 to 600,000 emperor penguins in the wild, compared to an estimated 8.2 billion people. 🚨 Reason tourists will no longer be able to visit popular holiday islands Globally, the consensus is that emperor penguins declined by 9.5 per cent across Antarctica between 2009 and 2018. This put them on track to be close to extinction in 75 years if the climate continues to warm at current rates, although one study has suggested it could be much sooner. The new data looks at numbers between 2009 to 2024. Melting sea ice, directly caused by the burning of fossil fuels like gas, coal and oil, is believed to be the primary cause of their demise. Emperor penguins need icy platforms at the edge of the ocean to be stable for at least eight months of the year. 🏭 Australia green-lights its biggest fossil fuel project 🛳️ Cruise ships almost kill 'world's oldest animals' 📸 Photos reveal details of 'secret' koala colony discovered in impenetrable forest The problem was highlighted in 2022, when a satellite captured the horror moment thousands of baby emperor penguins died after sea ice collapsed beneath them. The dramatic decline in numbers has led researchers to believe that climate change is contributing to other issues that are challenging the species like changing storm, snow and rainfall patterns. The study's co-author Dr Phil Trathan has warned the only way to ensure there is more than a 'few' emperor penguins by 2100 is to stabilise greenhouse emissions. "The fact that we're moving to a position faster than the computer models project means there must be other factors we need to understand in addition to loss of breeding habitat,' he said. Love Australia's weird and wonderful environment? 🐊🦘😳 Get our new newsletter showcasing the week's best stories.
Daily Mail
05-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Montana mountain town sees mysterious population decline
The idyllic town of Great Falls in Montana has seen an exodus of people while much of the state continues to attract newcomers. In the latest data from the US Census Bureau, Great Falls was noted as the only large Montana city to consistently see its population decline since 2020. The city lost 230 people from 2023 to 2024, while many other hubs in the state have grown as people flocked during the pandemic. Great Falls' population decline is still relatively small compared to its population of over 60,000, and it remains around half the size of Montana's largest city, Billings, at 123,000. Billings grew by 686 people in that same time frame, with the second most populated city, Missoula, growing its 77,000-people population by 557 people. Montana's idyllic scenery and low taxes drew in many people during the pandemic as people opted to work remotely from the state. But the rapid growth has slowed according to the new census data, with cities such as Bozeman still growing but at a much lower rate. From 2020 to 2021, Bozeman grew at three percent as it added over a thousand new residents, but this fell to a 1.4 percent rate from 2023 to 2024. The next town over from Bozeman, Belgrade, saw an even bigger drop than the major city as the influx it saw from the pandemic slowed dramatically. In 2021, Belgrade grew by a huge 8.1 percent, but this dropped to a growth rate of just 2.3 percent this year as its population grew by 280 residents, per the Montana Free Press . But while much of Montana grew since the pandemic in 2020, Great Falls is the only major city in the state that consistently shrunk. Statewide, migration from those already living in the US has reportedly been the primary driver of Montana's population surge. Between 2020 and 2023, over 51,000 more people moved into Montana than moved away, according to the census bureau. Over 6,000 more people moved into Montana than moved out in 2024 alone, with a huge majority of those coming from other states rather than people born outside the US. It comes as startling new data on the US population found that the nation's natural-born population could be almost extinct in just 500 years. Not taking into account immigration or major changes in death rates, statisticians predict this group could be cut by at least one-third every 75 years. This, economist Dr Abigail Hall told is a clear sign the US is heading toward a 'detrimental' crisis. Dr Hall, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa, told 'Economically speaking, depopulation is detrimental for economic growth.' 'One thing people would probably witness is that it's going to be harder to find people to fill jobs.' Experts have warned that as the US population dwindles, there will be fewer people to pay off the nation's debt. For example, the Heritage Foundation estimates a baby born in 2007 will assume $30,500 in debt. However, a baby born in 2020 will assume $59,000. Based on the current trends, recent Census data predicts the natural-born population in the US will be back to levels of the post-Civil War era in the next 300 years, with just 60million people. And around the year 2600, this population could dwindle to only 10 million, a number not seen since the early 1800s when the country bounced back from the Revolutionary War.
Daily Mail
05-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Mysterious exodus from idyllic Montana mountain town despite state booming for years
The idyllic town of Great Falls in Montana has seen an exodus of people while much of the state continues to attract newcomers. In the latest data from the US Census Bureau, Great Falls was noted as the only large Montana city to consistently see its population decline since 2020. The city lost 230 people from 2023 to 2024, while many other hubs in the state have grown as people flocked during the pandemic. Great Falls' population decline is still relatively small compared to its population of over 60,000, and it remains around half the size of Montana's largest city, Billings, at 123,000. Billings grew by 686 people in that same time frame, with the second most populated city, Missoula, growing its 77,000-people population by 557 people. Montana's idyllic scenery and low taxes drew in many people during the pandemic as people opted to work remotely from the state. But the rapid growth has slowed according to the new census data, with cities such as Bozeman still growing but at a much lower rate. From 2020 to 2021, Bozeman grew at three percent as it added over a thousand new residents, but this fell to a 1.4 percent rate from 2023 to 2024. The next town over from Bozeman, Belgrade, saw an even bigger drop than the major city as the influx it saw from the pandemic slowed dramatically. In 2021, Belgrade grew by a huge 8.1 percent, but this dropped to a growth rate of just 2.3 percent this year as its population grew by 280 residents, per the Montana Free Press. But while much of Montana grew since the pandemic in 2020, Great Falls is the only major city in the state that consistently shrunk. Statewide, migration from those already living in the US has reportedly been the primary driver of Montana's population surge. Between 2020 and 2023, over 51,000 more people moved into Montana than moved away, according to the census bureau. Over 6,000 more people moved into Montana than moved out in 2024 alone, with a huge majority of those coming from other states rather than people born outside the US. It comes as startling new data on the US population found that the nation's natural-born population could be almost extinct in just 500 years. Not taking into account immigration or major changes in death rates, statisticians predict this group could be cut by at least one-third every 75 years. This, economist Dr Abigail Hall told is a clear sign the US is heading toward a 'detrimental' crisis. Dr Hall, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa, told 'Economically speaking, depopulation is detrimental for economic growth.' 'One thing people would probably witness is that it's going to be harder to find people to fill jobs.' Experts have warned that as the US population dwindles, there will be fewer people to pay off the nation's debt. For example, the Heritage Foundation estimates a baby born in 2007 will assume $30,500 in debt. However, a baby born in 2020 will assume $59,000. Based on the current trends, recent Census data predicts the natural-born population in the US will be back to levels of the post-Civil War era in the next 300 years, with just 60million people. And around the year 2600, this population could dwindle to only 10million, a number not seen since the early 1800s when the country bounced back from the Revolutionary War. Dr Hall highlights America's flailing fertility rate, which was laid bare in a report last month by the CDC. The report found women on average had 1.6 births each in 2023, well below the 2.1 needed to sustain population growth. Political leaders are warning of dire consequences, with Elon Musk often saying population decline could become one of the most pressing issues to face humanity in the coming decades.
Japan Times
04-06-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
Japan's fertility rate hits record low despite government push
Japan's fertility rate declined in 2024 for the ninth consecutive year, reaching another historical low that underscores the immense challenge facing the government as it attempts to reverse the trend in one of the world's most aged societies. The total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is likely to have over her childbearing years — fell to 1.15, down from 1.2 the previous year, and marking the lowest rate in records going back to 1947, according to a health ministry release on Wednesday. The trend was particularly notable in Tokyo, where the rate was below 1 for the second year in a row. The total number of births dropped to about 686,000, marking the first time the figure has fallen below 700,000. Deaths totaled around 1.61 million, leading to a net population decline of roughly 919,000 and extending the run of annual drops in the country's population to 18 years. The data exclude migration. The data underscore the urgency of the government's recent push to boost fertility. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has rolled out a range of policies aimed at easing the financial burden on families, including expanded child-related subsidies and tuition-free high school education. The government has also guaranteed full wage compensation for some couples who both take parental leave and improved working conditions for childcare and nursing staff. These measures build on the initiatives by Ishiba's predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who pledged to raise per-child government support to levels comparable to Sweden, where 3.4% of GDP is devoted to family benefits. At the time, Kishida warned that Japan could "lose its capacity to function as a society' unless bold action was taken. The crisis of rapidly declining birth rates remains unresolved, a health ministry spokesperson said, citing the shrinking population of young women and the trend toward later marriage and childbirth among key contributing factors. The continued decline in births is renewing concern over the future of Japan's social security system. The nation's public pension program is under increasing strain, with fewer contributors and a growing number of recipients. Over the past two decades, the number of people paying into the system has fallen by around 3 million, while beneficiaries have increased by nearly 40%, according to a separate ministry report. Japan's soaring social security costs are placing even greater pressure on public finances, where the debt-to-GDP ratio stands at the highest among advanced economies. For fiscal year 2025, social welfare spending totaled ¥38.3 trillion ($266.3 billion), accounting for one-third of the national budget. The labor market is also expected to remain under pressure. If current trends continue, Japan could face a shortage of 6.3 million workers in 2030, according to an estimate by Persol Research and Consulting. Demographic challenges are increasing around the world. In South Korea, the fertility rate ticked up slightly last year for the first time in nine years, though only to 0.75. U.S. births declined in 2023 to the lowest level in more than 40 years, a trend that likely led U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to consider a raft of child care policies. In a rare encouraging sign, the number of newlywed couples in Japan rose by more than 10,000 in 2024 compared with the previous year. Since marriage and birth rates are closely linked in the country, the increase may help support future fertility. Local governments, including in Tokyo, have recently launched initiatives to encourage marriage, such as developing dating apps and organizing matchmaking events to create more opportunities for people to meet potential partners.
